Wag The Dog is a terribly fun - and terribly cynical - film from the Clinton years, about a President who manufactures a military crisis with Albania in the run-up to an election. Finding himself massively unpopular, he creates a crisis to rally the nation in the days before the election.
So, as a thought experiment, could this be a model for an October strike on Iran? Consider:
- Democrats are tanking in the polls. This election cycle is a looming disaster.
- Democratic voters are discouraged, while Republican/Independent/Tea Party voters are energized. If Democrats stay home, the expected defeat will be a rout.
- Jewish voters are overwhelmingly Democrat, and the recent tussle with Israel has normal Democrat (jewish) allies expressing dismay. This feeds the "discouraged Democrat voter" meme.
- Obama is seen as soft on America's enemies, which by itself is not a major issue, but added in with all the rest hurts him with the independents and "Reagan Democrats".
- The Europeans (particularly the French) are disgusted at the administration's rolling over towards the Iranians. Their squawking is likely to be muted.
- The "hit them from the air" approach was the staple of the Clinton administration. Check out the name at the top of the letterhead over at the State Department.
So - take out the Iranian processing plants in October. It rallies the Jewish lobby, plus Centrist Democrats, plus (probably) a bunch of Independents. Of course, it infuriates the
As the Mythbusters would say, "Plausible". Do I think it will play out this way? Probably not. But it's a thought experiment, remember?
Of course, this contradicts the Czar of Muscovy's analysis. All I can plead is that Israel taking out the reactors doesn't help Obama.