Global Warming causes snowfall in Alexandria, Egypt

That's some righteous Global Warming:

Residents claimed this is the first snowfall in the city in over a decade, and flooded social media with pictures and videos of the snow-covered city as they excitedly shared their experience witnessing this “European” weather.

The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) predicted that most parts of Egypt will see very cold weather on Monday.

 ZOMG!  It's the HOTTEST YEAR EVER!!!11!!eleventy!!!

This mockery is brought to you by Mother Nature, who noticed all of the breathless hyperventilation about the heat last summer ...

(via)

Damned vaccine side effects

Miguel experienced a really dangerous one.

Get better, buddy! 

For you lucky sumbitches out there

Suppose you have one of those sweet, sweet M1 Carbines - you know the ones: light, short, handy, low recoil and fun to shoot all day.  You lucky sumbitch.

Well, Ammoman has a sweet deal on .30 Carbine to feed your habit, just in time for the holidays: 1080 Mil Surp .30 Carbine cartridges in 10 round stripper clips in nine bandoliers for $520 (!).  You lucky sumbitch.

And remember, ammunition makes great stocking stuffers.

(No comment on how Gov. Cuomo gave Gammy the gift of Eternal Peace this past year ...)

Just remember, a shotgun is not a defense against zombies.  C'mon - this is an expert on the subject. 

This is not the Zombiepocalypse I had been promised

Shamelessly stolen from David Drake.

Reasons for optimism about Coronavirus?

Amidst the global panic that is shutting down the economy, there are some reasons for guarded optimism:

1. After a long delay, we are finally starting to get some actual data on mortality.  The data do not seem to support panic. The Silicon Graybeard elaborates on my post yesterday about the plague ship Diamond Princess and makes a plausible case that the mortality rate for the virus is around 0.2% of those exposed.

2. We are starting to see a lot of action on possible treatments - and by "action" I mean medical studies under way or even completed.  So far we've been treating patients with ventilators; now there look to be medicines coming.  Interestingly, some of the treatments are very old ones created to fight other diseases (for example, it looks like Chloroquinine tablets that were used against malaria Back In The Day may be effective against Chronavirus).  The medical research community hasn't been standing around twiddling its thumbs.

3. The worse mortality (in Italy) has been almost entirely concentrated in the population 80 years old or older.  This has quite useful implications about prevention techniques - isolate senior living centers, for example.  There is a possibility of a more targeted approach than "close al the bars and restaurants".

Sure, there's still a lot that we don't know, but it sure looks like the more data we get the less bad this looks.

At last - some actual Coronavirus data

I've been saying that what we don't know about the Coronavirus outweighs what we know.  This makes it really hard to estimate how bad things will get.  Now there's an analysis of the Plague Ship Diamond Princess.  It's really, really interesting for a couple of reasons:

• It was a "worst case" scenario, as people were confined for weeks with other infected people in very close quarters.  While this protected the general public from the infection, it likely maximized the spread of the virus on board the ship.
• It was a "worst case" scenario as the population on board skewed dramatically to older - and thus, more vulnerable - people.

And so to the data, which is (cautiously) reassuring:

• 83% of the passengers never caught the virus at all.
• Very elderly (80+) were infected at only a very slightly higher infection rate (75% never caught the virus)
• Almost half the passengers who did get the virus showed no symptoms at all
• The young (under 20) and old (over 50) disproportionally showed no symptoms after being infected
• Overall death rate was 1.2% (7 cases total)

Remember, this was a worst case scenario.  As I said, this is (cautiously) reassuring.  A detailed analysis is available here.

Remember, ammunition makes a great stocking stuffer

This is a holiday classic.

Amazon and Apple almost certainly did NOT get hacked servers

There is a sensational Bloomberg article claiming that Chinese intelligence agents added chips to motherboards in servers used by Amazon and Apple.  I won't link to it because this smelled to me like bogus security PR stories that are unfortunately a plague in the industry.  Basically, a showboating security company gets a PR agency to hype a story beyond all recognition, and whatever kernel of truth was there gets drowned in a tidal wave of ZOMG!!!!!eleventy!!

Yawn.

But there's a very interesting writeup at Errata Security about what the real scoop likely is (spoiler alert: fraud in the manufacturing process replacing quality chips with less expensive knock-offs to skim some profits).  Basically, it's why you ask your mechanic for the used parts he changed in your car (and look at the ones he replaced them with) if you aren't sure about his reputation.

But this is the key part, to me at least:

The story is based on anonymous sources, and not even good anonymous sources. An example is this attribution:

a person briefed on evidence gathered during the probe says

That means somebody not even involved, but somebody who heard a rumor. It also doesn't the person even had sufficient expertise to understand what they were being briefed about.

The whole article is interesting, but is important for how it demolishes the breathless ZOMG!!!!!eleventy!! in the Bloomberg article.  Quite frankly, that's why I'm not linking to Bloomberg, because it's security clickbait.

The problem on someone getting to the hardware and doing dirty deeds dirt cheap is a real one - I've personally heard DoD folks discussing this for 15 years or more.  But this sure doesn't seem like that's what's happening.  Rather, it's just some big mouth media whores helping "journalists" pimp some clickbait.

UPDATE 8 October 2018 09:42: The Department of Homeland Security backs the denials from Apple and Amazon.

A Public Service Announcement

Folks, it's called a "Nor'easter".  "Bomb Cyclone" is just clickbait.  I grew up in Maine, and we had these all the time.  Yes, it's cold and snowy - it's winter.  This isn't worse that 1978, or 1996.  Saying this is "Climate Change" is idiotic: we've seen this over and over again for as long as people have been keeping records.  Weather, not climate, folks.

You'd expect people to act like they've been here before ...

I hope that the Brady Campaign doesn't find out about this

They'll want background checks for sure.

Probably has the shoulder thing that goes up in there, too ...

(Seen on the Book of Faces by the Queen Of The World)

I blame Global Warming

Rick emails to point out another example of why God hates yankees:

If you felt like it was freezing in Boston [Monday] morning, you were right.

Temperatures dipped to 31 degrees, marking the first time Boston has seen a freeze this early in 36 years, according to the National Weather Service.

Remember, Boston had its snowiest winter in history last winter, but hey, this is no biggie.

It was the earliest freeze in Boston since Oct. 10, 1979, when Boston saw a low of 30 degrees, said Bill Simpson, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service in Boston.

“On average, it’s seven to 10 days earlier than normal,” Simpson said.

Yes, I know that this is weather, not climate.  One swallow does not a spring make, and all that.  But the stupid, based media would scream ZOMG THERMAGEDDONZ!!!! if these were hot and drought instead of freezing and snow.

Wow, I had no idea how dangerous this was

And where can I get one?  Want.

Hat tip: long time buddy Burt via email.

.700 Nitro Express - the caliber for Zombie Boris Karloff?

ASM826* posted on what caliber would you use if you (like the lady in the story) were attacked by a crazed rabid deer.  A bunch of you left comments which mostly boil down to "this is my carry piece; there are many like it but this one is mine."

That got me thinking last evening when out with a friend.  His brother and sister-in-law were visiting from New Hampshire and were going to watch the Walking Dead being filmed here in Atlanta.  What caliber for zombies has been hashed to death (T-Bolt is the go-to guy on why shotguns are not what you want).  But even he hasn't reckoned with the first Walking Dead, none other than Boris Karloff himself.

It's from 1936, and is an actual zombie story.  Karloff is a man wrongly convicted of a crime and executed.  His body is reanimated by a mad scientist and he searches out those who falsely accused him.  They all meet unpleasant ends, proving that Justice isn't just poetic, but can write in iambic pentameter.

And so the interesting question is what caliber for zombie Boris Karloff?  It's not just your average zombie, it's Boris damned Karloff.  As a Zombie.  I'm guessing that a regular carry piece might not be enough,  T-Bolt says no to shotties, but you need something a bit beefier than pistol for this, and Zombie Karloff doesn't travel in hordes.  12 gauge slugs?  Depleted Uranium 12 gauge slugs?

Holland and Holland double rifle in .700 Nitro Express**?  DIY Elephant Gun?

* Not only is be bringing the shooty goodness, he's getting me to bring some, too.  Win!

** Yikes!  Those are $100/trigger pull, but if you can't afford the ammo you sure as shootin' can't afford the rifle.  But if you can't drop a Zombie - even Zombie Boris Karloff - with 9,000*** foot pounds of impact force (!!!) then the Lord is calling you home that day ...

*** Double Yikes!  It seems that you can hand load these babies to 15,000 foot pounds of impact!  At that point, I'd expect crew served**** from a tripod ...

Via El Wik, here's the .700 Nitro Express next to a .45ACP:

The dang bullet is bigger than the entire .45 cartridge.  I'm not ashamed to say that I'm not man enough to fire this off hand.  Yowzer.

**** I think that if I sold the house, I might be able to afford one of these.  Wonder if there are any on Craig's List?

ZOMG!!! THERMAGEDDON!!!!1!!eleventy!!!

Jay emails to point out this from the More Of The Same Department:

Paris (AFP) - UN scientists are set to deliver their darkest report yet on the impacts of climate change, pointing to a future stalked by floods, drought, conflict and economic damage if carbon emissions go untamed.

A draft of their report, seen by AFP, is part of a massive overview by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), likely to shape policies and climate talks for years to come.

Yeah, it's what they do.  Hype the Gloom and Doom in the hope that someone will turn over a trillion dollars to the UN.  What's interesting is what's later in the article:

It predicted global temperatures would rise 0.3-4.8 degrees Celsius (0.5-8.6 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, adding to roughly 0.7 C since the Industrial Revolution.

Highlighting by your humble host.  Think about this range: 0.3° to 4.8°.  That's like saying that my next car will be in the range of a scooter to a Ferrari.  It says nothing. Heck, even a nasty Denier like me can buy into 0.3°.  This is actually where the "97% of climate scientists support warming" comes from.

And 4.8°?  Some of the climate models predict that. So where on the range of low temperature to high temperature model projections is the smart money betting?

The unlabled lines are model projections.  The UAH and RSS lines are the two observed satellite data sets.  0.3° is actually looking pretty good.

The breathless headline isn't backed up by the data, or even the rest of the press release.  That's actually pretty interesting.  My prediction: the World will continue to yawn.

Now this looks like a scary movie

Hat tip: 2cents, via email.  And yes, you should start blogging again.

Why the public no longer believes in Global Warming

In the Northeast, the general rule of thumb is that you won't see a snowflake before Thanksgiving, and you won't see snow on the ground before Christmas.  People grow up with this, and while there's year to year variation, it's something that everyone understands in their bones.

And so now listen to the "Global Warming is wrecking the Planet" and "6 of the hottest years in the last century were in the last decade" bloviating that people hear from the Press.  You know why none of this sticks?  Because people also hear this from the Press:

Biggest Snowstorm of the year threatens Northeast:

Another round of wintry weather will slug the eastern half of the United States starting Friday, threatening to leave as much as a foot of snow by Sunday.

“We will see a lot of winter storm warnings being issued with this,” Michael Palmer, a lead meteorologist with The Weather Channel told NBC News. The station has already issued a severe winter weather alert from Missouri through to Maine on Thursday night.

“Boston will probably be the worst hit in terms of cities, in the 4-to-8-inch range,” he added. “In Philadelphia and New York City, we will see probably 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation. It will be the biggest storm in terms of accumulating snow that we have seen in the Northeast this winter.”

And this is the second snow storm on the east coast so far this year.  We're not even half way through December.  No wonder nobody pays attention anymore - what they hear doesn't jive with what they see, and so they tune it out.

Yeah, yeah - weather vs. climate, yadda yadda.  I'd be more impressed with this argument if people who believe in Global Warming didn't seize on every warm summer week as proof of ZOMGTHERMAGEDDON!!!!1!!eleventy!!!

Holy cow

I've never been the biggest Jean Claude Van Dam fan, but if this is as described, then my respect for his real world (not Hollywood) capabilities went way, way up.



And my respect for Volvo.  But this is so so off the hook that I do wonder if it was shot and then video played in reverse.  Click through for the story.  Wow.

Heinrich Marschner - Overture from the opera Der Vampyr

Image via Wikipedia

Halloween is an interesting challenge for classical music blogging.  At first it's a delight - you're surrounded by choices (Night on Bald Mountain, Toccata and Fugue, you get the idea).  But you go through the easy choices, and then the interesting exploration begins.

Because classical music is filed with great choices for Halloween.  Like today's offering, a shockingly early piece from 1828.  It sounds like it could have been written 60 years later - high romantic classical music from the year after the death of Beethoven himself.

It also has a particularly interesting take on vampires.  This opera was written a full seventy years before Bram Stoker's classic, Dracula.  Stoker (an Englishman) placed the haunt of the undead in far off Teutonic (or past Teutonic) wilderness.  Marschner (a German) placed the haunt of the undead in far off Scottish wilderness.

The story is silly (hey, it's an opera) but the plot is wrapped around vampires and pretty girls, so score one for Marschner.  It has a happy ending (hey, it's an opera), so it's perhaps a little lighthearted for the spirit of Halloween, but it's wonderful music.

If they keep coming out with this sort of Global Warming nonsense, then I shall keep mocking them

There's a new IPCC Assessment Report out, and so it's Global Warming silly season again.  This time, it's the Caribbean nations running out of fresh water:

Yet another anthropogenic global warming alarm, and just in time for IPCC AR5, whose newly released WG1 chapters 7 and 11 say there is high confidence that dry regions will get drier, wet regions will get wetter, and storms will get stormier. “But there is only low confidence in the magnitude.” These Caribbean experts are much more certain—Caribbean water resources will not be available.

Little in this MSM AP news is what it seems. Paragraph 2 starts out saying rising sea levels could contaminate Caribbean fresh water supplies. What a curious assertion. Less dense fresh water floats on top of salt water no matter the sea level. Excessive groundwater drawdown can cause saltwater intrusion from below. That is already a problem in urbanized Broward County, Florida despite proximity to the Everglades.  And on the Tuvalu atolls in the Pacific, where government owned tourist hotels have strained its very limited groundwater capacity. Tuvalu is another urban development problem, not AGW. It was caused by Tuvalu’s government itself, eager to develop ecotourism (diving) after their new Funafuti runway was built with World Bank financing.

Math, science, and engineering are hard.  Just gin up some ZOMG THERMAGEDDON!!!11!!! to get some sweet, sweet political support for big money UN projects.  Remember, boys and girls, if the Caribbean nations run out of fresh water, it's the fault of Global Warming - because Global Warming causes everything.

Overheard at Black Hat: "Who here has seen the film 'Sneakers'?"

This question was asked in a session about security problems in crypto-mathematics.  Half the hands went up.   I wonder if the speaker reads Borepatch?

There may be a problem in the encryption that underlies Secure Sockets Layer (SSL) - this is the stuff that protects you when you browser to some https:// location.  While the encryption isn't broken, there's a lot of mathematical analysis going on in this field that is showing partial results.  Already this year there have been three published paper on the Discrete Logarithm Problem (don't worry about the details).  There hadn't been any progress for 30 years, and now this is the new mathematical hotness.  It it becomes possible to solve this problem then we have exactly the situation shown in Sneakers - everything on the Internet will be able to be decrypted.  Worse, the techniques likely will be easy to implement, and so everything will be vulnerable, all in the space of a week or two.

They call this the Cryptopocalypse.  Slides (and maybe video) of the session should be posted there in a day or two, and if you're interested you should check it out.  It was the best presentation on encryption that I've ever seen.

Even more interesting is that the recommendations - to use Elliptic Curve encryption (don't worry about the details).  The Russian crypto system GOST was based on this.  It isn't based on the RSA standard we use here, that depends on Discrete Logarithms.  In the film, the Soviet Attache said that their encryption was different, and that the decryption box wouldn't work against them.

All in all, the world is a very strange place where so much prediction seems to have come from Hollywood.