Sumd00d posted to the neighborhood Facebook group, recommending that people prepare their lanai screen for the high winds by cutting them.
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That's some righteous hurricane prep, right there [rolls eyes so hard you can hear it over the hurricane]
My thought is why not open all your windows to keep the wind from blowing them out, amirite? Sheesh.
That dot that says "M" on Wednesday at 7PM? Yeah, that's right over my house. They're calling for Cat 4 and a 12 foot tidal surge. We're on moderately high ground - if we flood then 80% of Florida is basically gone, but the folks on the barrier islands are looking at a fresh hell coming at them.
As is Joint Base McDill. Maybe if it hits there the military can get some quicker rescue going when it hits there than they did in North Carolina. Yes, that's pretty nasty to write. The fact that you can write that is even nastier, IMHO.
This seems to be a useful site, if you're on the water:
I give NOAA a lot of flak for their climate change nonsense, but this is exactly what you would want from a world class national weather bureau. The model may be wrong - all models are - but the fact that the tidal surge arrives at high tide is no bueno for McDill. I hope they are taking action, and I hope that people along the water are evacuating.
Lord Almighty, what a hurricane season.
Divemedic has some thoughts that are worth your time. The Silicon Graybeard does his preps. We're battened down for the fifth storm in the four years we've been here.
When we point out that things aren't as hot as expected (predictions of 5 or more degrees increase being more like half a degree), we are told that the climate is changing in a way that we will experience more extremes. The problem is that we're not seeing these extremes. Case in point, the Great Blue Norther of 1911:
On November 11, temperatures in Kansas City had reached a record high of 76 °F (24 °C) by late morning before the front moved through. As the cold front approached, the winds increased turning from southeast to northwest. By midnight, the temperature had dropped to 11 °F (−12 °C), a 65 °F (36 °C) difference in 14 hours.[5] The next day would have a record low of 6 °F (−14 °C) and a high of only 21 °F (−6 °C).[10] In Springfield, the temperature difference was even more extreme. Springfield was at 80 °F (27 °C) at about 3:45 p.m. CST (21:45 UTC), before the cold front moved through. Fifteen minutes later, the temperature was at 40 °F (4 °C) with winds out of the northwest at 40 mph (64 km/h). By 7:00 p.m. CST (01:00 UTC 12 November) the temperature had dropped a further 20 °F (−7 °C), and by midnight (06:00 UTC), a record low of 13 °F (−11 °C) was established. It was the first time since records had been kept for Springfield when the record high and record low were broken in the same day. The freak temperature difference was also a record breaker: 67 °F (37 °C) in 10 hours.
And it wasn't just Kansas City, it was all over - Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Peoria, Columbus, Lexington KY. So these records are really old. If the climate were getting more susceptible to extreme weather events, where are the new records?
It's almost like what you read in the Press is biased or something.
This is a scary Halloween post - scary for people who believe in Global Warming, anyway. I've posted for years and years about how the temperature data is adjusted to show warming that is not seen in the recorded data. I've also posted about how temperature records cannot be adjusted, and are an uncomfortable topic for global warmers to explain - for example, if world climate is getting hotter, why is the highest recorded temperature in the USA from 1913?
Well here is another example of that, from Halloween 100 years ago. From the Wikipedia article about the town of Marble Bar, Australia:
The town set a world record of most consecutive days of 100 °F (37.8 °C) or above, during a period of 160 days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.
That's almost half a year over 100 °F. you'd think that if the world were warming you would see a longer consecutive hot streak, but you don't. So this must be an example of weather, not climate. You remember the difference, don't you?
Weather: a local condition unrelated to global climate.
Climate: anything that proves Global Warming.
... man, it's hot. Hey, at least it's a dry Florida heat, amirite? (/sarcasm)
We are told that the reason that we don't see new record high temperatures despite the global climate getting hotter is that the winters are getting warmer while the summers are not. Unfortunately for this explanation, this doesn't seem to be the case. Tokyo winters have been getting colder for 40 years:
Tokyo winters have been cooling since 1984
With all the news about global warming, surely the decades long winter-trend for the city of Tokyo must be one of strong warming. Yet, looking at the mean DJF winter temperature trend for Tokyo going back 39 years using the untampered data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), we see a trend that has to surprise the global warming bedwetting dolts:
Data source: JMA.
I seem to be repeating this message - I posted about this last year. But "hottest year ever!" Yawn.
These linemen are restoring power to Sanibel Island.
Shock and awe.
Spotted by The Queen Of The World.
And especially if you're trying to predict a hurricane's track.
Divemedic has a great series of posts up about hurricane preparedness (this post will lead you to the others). He sounds ready.
The Queen Of The World and I are ready, too, although I'll get another 5 gallons of gas for the generator tomorrow. We have some things that Divemedic didn't include on his list. For example, a Homer Bucket (5 gallon orange bucket from Home Depot) with a toilet seat and some cat litter makes a makeshift toilet. Hope we don't need that one, but it's not a bad idea - although Divemedic's idea of filling the bath tub for toilet flush water will be plan #1 ...
But he also points out that predicting the track of a hurricane is not the most accurate science. We're keeping our eyes on the forecast, and it's changing multiple times a day:
I don't mind if the storm track moves away from us, but there's no reason it can't move back again. We both are pretty confident that we can ride this out if it does, and the running around earlier was time well spent.
But Divemedic's post is today's must-read if you're anywhere near the southeast.
Don't blame me, The Queen Of The World found this.
27" of snow in South Dakota. It closed I-90.
Damn Global Warming! CAN'T IT WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER?
This may seem like an innocuous statement, but this all actually encapsulates the Climate Bullshit perfectly. First, the government's statement:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed in a new report that the average temperature during this summer for the contiguous U.S. was hotter than the Dust Bowl in the 1930s.
The meteorological summer between June 1 to Sept. 1 averaged 74F for the U.S., or 2.6 degrees warmer than the long-term average. NOAA said, "this technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F)."
Remember the Dust Bowl? John Steinbeck and Henry Fonda sort of made it memorable:
1936 is the year of record heat in the United States. There's a reason that the midwest dried up and blew away that summer:
You want to see a real heat wave? Look at July 1936. Eleven States set high temperature records that stand to this day. That Wikipedia page is a little shifty on this, trying to hide the decline in record temperatures. You'll see an asterisk next to South Dakota, which the Wiki page says means Also on earlier date or dates in that state. So what was that earlier date for South Dakota? July 1936.
Oh, and three more States set high temperature records the next month, August 1936. That makes 14 out of the 50 States suffered record high temperatures in the summer of 1936. That's almost 30% of the States.
NOAA (the Fed.Gov's weather bureau) said that this summer was hotter than that. Oooooh kaaaaay. So riddle me this, WeatherMan: how many States set temperature records this summer? One. Washington State set a record high on June 29.
Not fourteen.
So how does NOAA get off saying that 2021 was hotter than 1936? Data adjustments:
The data have two components: the raw measurements themselves, and a set of adjustments.
Adjustments are made for a bunch of reasons: time of observation adjustments (you didn't take a reading at exactly the same time each day), environmental changes, weather station site relocations, urbanization, etc.
An interesting question is how much of the 20th century's temperature change is due to adjustments? As it turns out, the answer is all of it.
This chart shows the before-adjustment and after-adjustment temperatures for the 20th century, super imposed. All of the warming is due to adjustments, rather than raw data. Almost all of the adjustments are for readings after 1970.
Just remember: fourteen states set high temperature records in July and August of 1934. Two states have set high temperature records in the last ten years (while three set low temperature records in the same period).
My forecast: no new state wide high records will be set in the next month, despite all the excited chatter that you'll hear.
But that doesn't change the fact that it will be hot, hot, hot. Hey Bustah!
And remember all the record cold temperatures last winter? This isn't a "weather not climate" incident, unless the climate serves up record freezing each year as "normal weather" - which you could just as well call "climate".Record lows were reported this morning from Birmingham, Alabama, to Burlington, Vermont, from New York City to Detroit, from Wichita to St. Louis, From Atlanta to Ohio. Birmingham’s low of 18F shattered the previous record of 22F set in 1911.New York City and Buffalo, New York, as well as parts of Ohio set new cold records. In Kansas alone, at least six cities, including Wichita, set cold records for the date on Tuesday.In Missouri, St. Louis dropped to 11F, breaking a record for the date that had stood for more than 100 years.Meanwhile, the entire state of Alabama was under a freeze warning as temperatures dipped into the 20s and below, breaking records at more than 100 locations.Record-challenging low temperatures were everywhere. Single-digit temperatures descended on much of the Midwest, where Detroit sank to 7F, shattering the old record of 12F for the day.
And this is a reminder that in record heat people are uncomfortable; in record cold they die.Record-low temperatures from Texas to Maine. Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan set records not only for the day, but for the entire month of November, according to forecasters.At least eight deaths have been blamed on a record-breaking cold spellthat still had its grip on much of the country Wednesday morning.The National Weather Service said the cold front brought a level of intensity not seen since 1911, more than 100 years ago.
Beneath this snowy mantle cold and clean
The unborn grass lies waiting
For its coat to turn to green
The snowbird sings the song he always sings
And speaks to me of flowers
That will bloom again in spring
When I was young
My heart was young then, too
Anything that it would tell me
That's the thing that I would do
But now I feel such emptiness within
For the thing that I want most in life's
The thing that I can't win
Spread your tiny wings and fly away
And take the snow back with you
Where it came from on that day
The one I love forever is untrue
And if I could you know that I would
Fly away with you
The breeze along the river seems to say
That he'll only break my heart again
Should I decide to stay
So, little snowbird
Take me with you when you go
To that land of gentle breezes
Where the peaceful waters flow
Spread your tiny wings and fly away
And take the snow back with you
Where it came from on that day
The one I love forever is untrue
And if I could you know that I would
Fly away with you
Yeah, if I could I know that I would
Fly away with you
Oh, hum. Here's a prediction: not a single US State will register a record high temperature during this heat wave. None.The Wikipedia page confirms that no record high temperatures were set last month in the 50 United States. No records have been set at all in the entirety of 2019 except for one: a record low temperature of -38°F in East St. Louis, IL. That's the lowest temperature ever recorded in the Land Of Lincoln.
You want to see a real heat wave? Look at July 1936. ElevenStates set high temperature records that stand to this day. That Wikipedia page is a little shifty on this, trying to hide the decline in record temperatures. You'll see an asterisk next to South Dakota, which the Wiki page says means Also on earlier date or dates in that state. So what was that earlier date for South Dakota? July 1936.
Oh, and three more States set high temperature records the next month, August 1936. That makes 14 out of the 50 States suffered record high temperatures in the summer of 1936. That's almost 30% of the States.
So, a major government climate data set is adjusting recent years temperature reading upward, at an increasing rate. This implies that the data as collected at the sensors is getting increasingly inaccurate - after all, we're seeing adjustments on the order of 0.5°F for the 1990s, so the sensors are clearly reading almost half a degree cold.That last item ended up being pretty interesting. In their court filings, the Kiwi weather bureau (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, or NIWA) claimed that they were never responsible for the database. Not theirs at all, nosiree. And pay no attention to their previous press releases about it all.
Does this make any sense? And notice how the sensors are "running cold", never hot, despite the fact that cities have grown much larger since 1960, and many once-rural weather stations are now surrounded by hot asphalt parking lot, rather than cooler meadow? Does that make any sense?
Let's look at this further.
The Fed.Gov says that the lower 48 states have warmed on average by 0.6° between 1940 and 1999. Of that, 0.5° is from adjustments, not from raw data. In other words, 83% of the warming is from adjustments. Well, now.
They say that they have a good explanation. Maybe they do - I'm still fighting off a bad case of "Meh", so let's ask another question: do we see anything like this other places than USHCN?
We do indeed. A week ago, a group called the Climate Science Coalition of New Zealand made a bombshell announcement: all of New Zealand's reported 1°C warming between 1850 and 2000 was due to adjustments.
A question that is not (yet) being asked about climate change is how would someone create a scientific consensus in the absence of solid data and computer models? Trusting trust.But Borepatch, I hear you ask, why would a scientist do this? Well, ideology has been a motivator for as long as we've had ideologies. But Ockham's Razor says that the simplest explanation is the best explanation, and that means money. We know that the ClimateGate team got millions of dollars in government funding. We know that governments have spent around $100B (yes, that's billion) on climate research. We have seen scientists publicly discussing how this government funding is corrupting the scientific community. We see governments proposing $50T (yes, that's trillion) "solutions" to the "problem" of global warming.
Dr. Jones and the CRU team are in control of one of the main data sets that all climate scientists use in their analyses (referred to as HadCRUt; the other major one is NASA's GISStemp - note that NASA's Gavin Schmidt features prominently in the CRU emails as a member of the "Hockey Team").
What is clear about the HadCRUt (as well as GISStemp) is that they are opaque - the data sets are terribly hard to understand, poorly documented, and adjusted in a manner that is not well explained (if, indeed, it is explained at all). In the case of CRU, the original (unmodified) data is no longer available, but seems to have been destroyed.
Yet ever single climate scientist uses these data sets for their analysis of global temperature.
So, if the guardians of these data sets were to want to ensure a scientific consensus that the globe is warming, that this is a recent phenomenon, and that mankind is behind it, all they need to do is modify the data sets. All researchers pick up the modified data sets, have no (easy) way to validate the soundness of the data, and unsurprisingly produce similar results. Hey, the data show conclusively that the planet is warming. Oh noes! Thermageddon!
The weather forecasters responsible for letting millions knowing about weather patterns, including hurricanes and tornadoes, have warned yet again that plans to auction off radio spectrum for 5G mobile networks could have a dangerous impact on their efforts.The FCC is basically saying "U mad, bro?" which strikes me as a fairly reckless response. This is a pretty impressive group of organizations saying "Hold on, wait a minute". This seems like it needs a serious hearing.
The American Geophysical Union (AGU), American Meteorological Society (AMS), National Weather Association (NWA), American Weather and Climate Industry Association (AWCIA), National Hydrologic Warning Council (NHWC), and a dozen other weather groups, have sent letters to US comms watchdog the FCC asking it [PDF] to scale back or stop plans to auction off 5G spectrum to cellular operators because it will likely interfere with their systems – systems that relay vital weather sensor data back to base for analysis quickly enough to predict catastrophic events.
According to the weather folk, there is no good alternative to them using those particular radio bands. They need to send the data over the air because other means – like the internet – are not sufficiently robust in extreme weather conditions. Their equipment is set up to work at specific frequencies, linking countless sensors and gadgets out in the field to satellites and ground stations, and it's not just the case that they can shift bands.While I've only been vaguely near two tornados, I'm pretty happy to have weather reports that have improved substantially during my lifetime, This seems more valuable than faster download of cute cat videos.
Allowing mobile companies to send data over these frequencies would add a lot of noise to the system, they warn.
