Why the Democrats can't put Humpty-Dumpty back together

Well, they can't in time for the election, anyway.  There's an old saying in politics that "personnel is policy" which refers to a lot more than just having someone competent in the job.  It's a reflection that politics is about coalitions - building them and maintaining them.  The coalition members get their cut of the government largess, and pay for it with loyalty to the guy at the top.  If they're not loyal, he gives them their pick slip and they lose the largess.

This was actually Trump's biggest mistake when he was president, not filling the Federal Government with his coalition.  In his defense, he was in the middle of a Republican civil war, where there were multiple factions and multiple coalitions.

That's exactly what the Democrats face now, and why they can't put Humpty-Dumpty back together.  Because there are multiple coalitions, whoever emerges on top won't know if he (she?) can trust these coalitions because they aren't his coalitions.  They might be able to be integrated into his coalition, given time, but time is exactly what the Democrats do not have right now.

It takes time to forge a governing coalition - just look at any parliamentary system: when the government is stable it is because the governing coalition is solid.  Ministers can issue policy with a reasonable expectation that it will be supported and carried out by the coalition members.  When the governing coalition is unstable, chaos results.  Orders get ignored or slow walked or subverted because the Minister no longer has the loyalty of the coalition members.

Eventually a leader emerges who can attract key talent from outside coalitions and integrate it into his.  This will involve rewards like positions in the bureaucracy or some such - featherbedding is the name of this game.  But until this all gets sorted out and the new coalition is filled with people who think they're better off with the new leader than without, nothing is going anywhere.

Even worse, there will always be serious back stabbing between different coalitions.  Trust is not a virtue most politicians hew to, and quite frankly until they are in a position to remove perks as well as give them, they would be a fool to trust just about anybody.

Some day a leader will emerge to stitch together the various coalitions that make up the Democratic party.  It won't happen in the next 100 days, sure as God made little green apples.

The biggest implication of this is that it will be much more difficult for the Democrats to "fortify" the upcoming election via 2020-style shenanigans.  Sure, the party bosses will want to, but how much do they trust the other coalitions to support them?  Would other coalitions even go so far as to rat them out (with plausible deniability, of course) - leading to various party elders behind bars.  That certainly would make it easier for other party elders to construct a winning coalition once they've taken out some of the competition.

Like I said, these people would have to be fools to trust very many people, and an election cheating scheme requires a lot of people to pull off.  When everyone is on-side you get the 2020 election.  When lots of people are very much not on-side you get, well, the Italian government which has had something like 60 Prime Ministers in 80 years.

The best analogy I can think of is the scene from The Godfather where all the families get together to divide things up.  Nobody trusts anybody.  That's where the Democrats are right now.

I repeat: you can't put a coalition together overnight - heck, it's taken almost a decade for Donald Trump to put together a serious coalition and a lot of his party still hates him.  I think that the Democrats will come more apart before they start to come together as the various factions start putting out mob hit style rumor whispers about their Democratic competitors.  We will hear a lot about this in the next few weeks.

And this is why the only choice at all for them to to fall in behind Kamala and hope for the best in the down ticket races.  But remember, while Kamala might have inherited Slow Joe's campaign cash, she was never really part of this coalition.  It's not loyal to her at all.  It may be that she's been so ineffective in office because Joe's coalition kept sabotaging her.  She has to build a coalition, and right quick.  The cash will help her there but coalition building takes time.

She doesn't have that.  What she does have is a whole boatload of enemies in the Democratic party.  Some of these think that their best bet to get to the top of the greasy pole is for her not to get there.  They'd rather have Trump in the Oval Office because they will have 4 years to build a coalition.  If Kamala is there, things are a lot trickier for them.

I almost feel sorry for the Democrats in general and Kamala in particular.  Almost.  It's ironic that all their short term tactical maneuvering has led them to this very spot.  Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of Mob Bosses.

Well that didn't take long

Leaked video from Rehoboth about Biden's advisors convincing him to drop out of the race.

This is really funny, and really well done.  I love how he gets names and dates repeatedly wrong.  And was Corn Pop really a Soviet General?  Who knew?

The preference cascade has begun

A Preference Cascade is when a large portion of the population begins to realize - despite relentless government and/or media propaganda - that a lot of other folks think like they do and that the propaganda is, well propaganda.  This is almost always catastrophic for The Powers That Be, because Preference Cascades tend to accelerate.  As this progresses, formerly reliable underlings begin to think that TPTB are going to lose, and start to refuse to stick their necks out to protect the current order.

It's one thing to stuff ballot boxes when you think that everyone on your side is on board and your guy is going to win - and any potential investigation will be done in the most slipshod manner.  It's quite a different thing when you wonder just how many of the guys on your side are actually going to go through with this, and if the other guy wins will you be facing 20 years in Club Fed.

At the extreme, the security services join the preference cascade.  They smell an emerging winner and want to be on side when that happens.  At this point, things get pretty grim for TPTB.

I think we're at that stage now - well, not the up against the wall shooting stage - but a cascading loss of confidence and loyalty in the Democratic Party itself for Joe Biden.  This will shrink the Margin of Cheat except in the most blue of blue states, and given that it looks like New York and New Jersey may be in play, there may not really be a lot of blue left.

In other words, everyone is starting to realize that the propaganda was just that - propaganda.

Add in the drop in contributions to the Democratic Party (the preference cascade is hitting the donor class, who are realizing that this "investment" may not have a return, and hedge their bets by contributing to Trump).

Now add in the media, who start to see that they are better off trying to help the Democratic Party, rather than mean old Joe Biden.

The question is not whether Trump will win, but whether the Preference Cascade will give him coattails, and how long they will be.

My guess is that the Preference Cascade is in full swing in the Secret Service, as competent and dedicated agents there start to wonder when (not if) to throw their corrupt bosses under the bus.  There's a lot coming out about this Charlie Foxtrot in the SS, so that suggests that the lack of loyalty to Joe Biden is advancing nicely there.

Once the Preference Cascade begins, TPTB have precious few tools to counter it.  For example, cracking down on leaking from within the Secret Service will do nothing but convince the undecided there that TPTB are untrustworthy and have to go.

Which will make Donald Trump only the second President to serve non-consecutive terms.

Even Hitler knows that Joe Biden is done

This is pretty well done, with Hitler watching the debate.

I like the cut of her (possibly Vice-Presidential) jib

Tucker Carlson interviews Tulsi Gabbard.  She is seemingly under consideration by Donald Trump for potential Vice President.  Clearly he hates women.  Or something.

In particular, if you are worried that she is a typical Hawaiian liberal Democrat, you should skip t0 45:00 or so.  Or 55:00.  but you should really listen to the whole darn thing.

No. this is not (yet) a Borebatch ensorsement for Tulsi Gabbard for Donald Trump's Vice President.  But her journey is a lot like mine, and she is very, very impressive (and very, very not a Mike Pence or Kamalal Harris way).

Keep an eye on Tulsi Gabbard.  Just sayin'.

Johnny Cash - Don't Take Your Guns To Town

So Dark Brandon gave a speech:

People are scratching their heads as to what motivated what is without doubt the most divisive Presidential speech of my lifetime.  One suspicion is that he is trying to incite some of the 75 million Trump voters to start shooting.  Likely the FBI is working overtime to entrap some "ultra MAGA semi-fascists" like like they ginned up the plot to kidnap the Governor of Michigan.

Remember, kids - they guy who says it's time to start shooting Federales is the Fed.  So don't take your guns to town.

Don't Take Your Guns To Town (Songwriter: Johnny Cash)

A young MAGA named Billy Joe
Grew restless waitin' to vote
A good patriotic boy 
Didn't like being made a goat
He changed his clothes and shined his boots
And combed his dark hair down

And his mother cried as he walked out
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

He laughed and kissed his mom
And said, "Your Billy Joe's a man
And I can shoot as quick and straight
As anybody can
But I wouldn't shoot without a cause
I'd gun nobody down"

But she cried again as he rode away
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

He sang a song as he rode along
His guns hung at his hips
He rode into Joe Biden's town
A smile upon his lips
He stopped and walked into a bar
And laid his money down

But his mother's words echoed again
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

He drank his first strong liquor then
To calm his shakin' hand
He tried to tell himself at last
Democrats won't push him around
A dusty FBI  at his side
Began to laugh him down

And he heard again his mother's words
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

And in his rage
Billy Joe reached for his gun to draw
But the Fed drew his gun and fired
Before he even saw
As Billy Joe fell to the floor
The crowd all gathered 'round

And they wondered at his final words
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

A hundred and twenty years have passed
And nothin's really changed
A young man on the city streets
He has to make his name
He's still too young to know
A gun can't make a boy a man

And his mama cries as he walks out
"Don't take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don't take your guns to town"

The lyrics have been updated a bit for the new Age of Brandon.

What happens when tens of millions of Americans become convinced that elections are shams?

I don't know the answer to that, but I dare say that we're likely to find out. 

Peter posts a review of the documentary 2000 Mules that lays out in gory detail how the election of 2020 was stolen.  It's hard to argue with his conclusions.

Adaptive Curmudgeon compares and contrasts the 80:1 long shot that won the Kentucky Derby with the election of 2020.  This is the key bit:

Let me repeat this known and undeniable fact because it’s important; I could watch the Kentucky Derby and see every damn hoofbeat frame by frame if I wish. But during an American election campaign 51 “intelligence experts” all collectively lied. One single event like that would ruin horseracing pari-mutuel betting for decades and yet we watched it happen in a presidential election. This was not one or two bad apples. It’s 51 of the motherfuckers. They all lied. I can’t get 51 people to agree on the best pizza topping but the press got 51 of them to sign their names on the record to an actual verifiable lie.

...

I could go on. I could link ten times as many images and endless bits of evidence and statistical anomalies. You’ve seen the same information as me. You’ve seen the images. You watched the vote tally change enormously in the middle of the night. You saw the vote counting stop in the middle of the night and then restart with vastly different results. You’ve seen the vote count charts. You’ve seen the mule videos. You’ve seen the Hunter Biden photos. You read the same Time magazine article.

Does any of that sound, look, or smell like the Kentucky Derby race?

Larry Correia posted a former auditor's impression of the election immediately after results were announced in November 2020.  His conclusion was pretty chilling:

I can say without hesitation though, that fuckery is afoot, and if an actual real investigation happens they’ll be able to prove it. Only this is politics, so who knows. The only thing I do know for certain is that this election is so fucked up it is just going to make America’s two halves hate each other even more. [My emphasis - Borepatch]

The United States was never a democracy: it was intentionally set up as a representative Republic.  For much of its history it was a plutocracy (government by the rich).  We managed to survive those times because growth trickled down to the masses.  That hasn't been true this last 50 years, but the rich still use their control of the Organs of the State to keep themselves in the money.

Everyone else?  Well if you live in Youngstown Ohio, or Leominster Mass, or Detroit Michigan at least the fentanyl is cheap.

But look at that bit from Larry Correia that I highlighted.  We're on that trajectory.  It looks something like this:

2008 - John McCain screws up and puts an actual populist on the ticket as his running mate.  Sara Palin's winking and sense of humor and unabashed normalcy almost won him the election before the Powers That Be reined her in.

2010 - the Tea Party rallied in their millions, but were polite and picked up their trash when they were done.

2012 - the IRS illegally abused the Tea Party and other conservative groups.  We know that they think it was illegal because Lois Lerner (head of the office that did this) pled the Fifth.  Of course she has rights, and cannot be compelled to offer incriminating testimony against herself.  The fact that she thought that this might happen is enough to convince me that she knew she committed a crime.  The Powers That Be got her off.  Oh, and the IRS apologized later.  After the election, of course, but no blood no foul, amirite?

2016 - Donald Trump shocks the world by beating Hillary Clinton.  He was the equivalent of a late entry 80:1 shot at the Kentucky Derby.  Quite frankly, he was the only candidate (other than Bernie Sanders) who spoke to those voters in Youngstown and places like that.  And suddenly they found their paychecks bought them more than they had a year ago - for the first time in 30 years.  

But Trump was brash and said mean stuff, so the Powers That Be did the hoodoo they doo so well in the 2020 election.  And here we are with gasoline costing twice what it used to and stores running out of baby formula.

So what is that hypothetical voter in Youngstown going to think?  Go back and look at that quote from Larry Correia: it is just going to make America’s two halves hate each other even more.

The American Plutocracy is acting like they think they will never face any consequences.  They are acting like they can push anyone around and do anything to anyone at any time.  I do not believe that they have thought about what our hypothetical voter in Youngstown wants.

For our hypothetical Youngstown man, he may think that the problem is that Trump wasn't mean enough.  And he's very unlikely to be alone in that thought.

God save this Honorable Republic.

I think I've seen this movie before

Via Insty, new poll shows Biden losing to Trump by double digits in 2024:

“A majority of voters think President Joe Biden shouldn’t seek reelection in 2024, and he would lose a rematch with former President Donald Trump by double-digit margins,” read the early analysis of the Rasmussen Reports poll sponsored by the Heartland Institute.

That's very sweet, but has the Heartland Institute been asleep for the last two years?  Trump could beat Biden by 100% and Biden would get re-elected.  Math is hard, amirite?  Especially when people cheat.

But everybody vote harder next time!

What I would do if I were Xi Jinping

Here's what I would do if I were Xi.  I'd invade Taiwan.

Consider: America is weaker and more divided that it has been for 50 years.  A weak, divided America is likely what Xi will see as being in China's best interests.

Consider also: NATO will find itself strained in any response, because it has sent so much equipment to Ukraine that it might not have a lot left to send to Taiwan.  NATO seems to want to keep the pressure on Russia, to bleed Putin and get regime change.  NATO will either be distracted from Taiwan, or will have to give up their dreams of different rulers in the Kremlin.  It may take NATO long enough to figure out what to do that the Taiwan invasion becomes a fait accompli. Advantage: China.

Consider also [2]: A June or July invasion will likely wrap up before the elections in November.  Losing Taiwan (after a pretty disastrous  response to Ukraine and a completely disastrous pullout from Afghanistan) will likely contribute to a rout of the Democrats in the election.  Big GOP Congressional majorities will further weaken Biden.  A weakened Biden is likely what Xi will see as being in China's best interests.

Consider also [3]: Even if a strong Republican gets elected to the White House in 2024, that will be 2 years after the fact, allowing China to consolidate/reintegrate Taiwan.  It will be hard to put that toothpaste back in the bottle.

The downside is looking like an aggressor in public.  Perhaps the biggest fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine is the prospect of Finland and Sweden joining NATO out of a sense of needing help against the Russian bear.  You could see something similar with India, Indonesia, Philippines, Korea, and Japan joining together in an anti-China bloc.  My take is that Xi doesn't care - China has never been expansionist outside of China (and they absolutely see Taiwan as part of China).  The domination they seek is economic, not military, and since the hypothetical Asian bloc would never be able to invade the homeland, this is likely not much of a consideration.  Also, if America and NATO are weakened then there may not be a credible alternative to China in Asia.

So the downsides are low, the benefits to China are likely high, and both of these could very well change in the next two (or even one) year.  The iron is hot, right now.  Timing will probably never be more in China's favor than now.

This is maybe a good time to short Taiwanese stocks.

Quote of the Day, Online Voting snark edition

This one is a joint effort by Aesop and your humble host, commenting on my post Online Voting is A Persistently Bad Idea: 

Aesop: Like people haven't already absorbed the lesson of what happens when you order a president online?

Borepatch: You get one from China. 

 I'm here all week.  Try the veal.

The best summary of Joe Biden's State Of The Union Address

It's from Ron DeSantis, Florida's America's Governor: 

Joe Biden’s State of the Union address was full of lies, omissions, and delusions.   He didn’t mention the worst border crisis in our country’s history – a direct result of his failed policies – or 13 American service members losing their lives due to his blundering policies.   He took zero responsibility for the worst inflation in forty years due to his reckless spending. Americans are getting crushed with soaring prices at the pump and in the grocery store, and Biden’s solution is to keep spending OUR money! And as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, Biden is still buying oil from Russia to help fund their assault while stopping American energy independence.   Now, thanks to his slumping poll numbers, Biden is advocating for every COVID policy I implemented two years ago in Florida and acting like these are novel and breakthrough ideas. This, from a guy who called Republican governors, “Neanderthals,” and told me to “get out of the way” for employing the very same policies in Florida he is now adopting.   He never apologized for cutting our supply of monoclonal antibodies and depriving Floridians of access to life-saving treatment, and he said we need to stop looking at COVID as a “partisan dividing line.”     Biden’s speech made no mention of the skyrocketing homicides and violent crime we’re seeing in Democrat-run cities across the country, and he said that we need to “hold law enforcement accountable.” Meanwhile, the only people he DOESN’T seem to want to hold accountable are the Soros-funded, soft-on-crime prosecutors and the criminals he portrays as victims.   Make no mistake, these are not just Joe Biden’s policies. These are the policies of the radical left-wing socialists who now own the Democrat Party.   But as Florida’s governor, I will never allow this president to erode our freedom, destroy our economy, cripple our businesses, or tolerate violent criminals as he shames the men and women who keep us safe.   I am standing in the way of these woke leftists that have put our country and your family at risk. In Florida, we will always stand for freedom and liberty.

Hat tip: The Queen Of The World.

UPDATE 2 February 2022 18:35:  J.Kb has video from the wild of Florida's America's Governor opening a can of whoop ass on a bunch of idiots who deserved it.

They say it's not aliens ...

But it's aliens.  Or at least Lizard People. 

This actually explains a lot.

Monoclonal antibodies - a report from the field

So our doctor said to go get them.  Actually, she was kind of lukewarm on the subject - our Internet digging said that they may or may not handle the new variant, but the test doesn't tell you what you have and the doc said that it wouldn't do any harm.  So off we went.

Remember last fall when President Biden cut off monoclonal antibodies to Florida?  This looks like one of the many shoot-from-the-hip and then backtrack policies from this Keystone Kops administration.  You can get them, although we had to drive a bit.  There's actually a pretty nice web page to find the location nearest to you.

And so off we went.  It was the better part of an hour drive which wasn't too bad.  This was a pop-up clinic in a community center.  There were a bunch of folks there as walk-ins; we were glad that we made reservations.

The procedure can be given two ways - an infusion (The Queen Of The World got this) or a set of four injections (I got these thinking it would be quicker - it was, but they keep you for an hour after the procedure "just in case" so it really wan't).  Then we drove back.

A couple hours later I started feeling worse - not a ton worse, but I had felt like I was on the mend before and then I didn't.  Even today it feels like I took a step backwards, although this is pretty impressionistic.  TQOTW doesn't seem to be much different.

So, did it do any good?  Beats me.  What I think I learned from this is that all the panic porn has an effect - I'm kind of glad that I took TQOTW because she wasn't doing great - but this is an emotional side of me that has been manipulated for two years.  The logical side of me thinks that maybe it didn't do anything.

Your mileage may vary, void where prohibited, do not remove tag on penalty of law.  Oh, and the Biden Administration can suck it.  Thanks for nothing, guys, you vindictive pricks.

UPDATE 25 JANUARY 2022 13:10:  Aaaaand they're gone.  The FDA removed the Emergency Use Authorization for monoclonal antibodies in Florida.  Looks like it's the only State subject to this restriction.  I'm glad we got ours last week.  Man, the Democrats suck.

Let's go, Brandon!

Out of the mouths of babes

When I was a kid, we learned what we could say in polite society, what we couldn't say in polite society,  and what skirts the line between those two.  Especially what's on the line between those two.  Well, it looks like kids today are the same as when we were young.

TL;DR: TV Talking Head gets kids at a NASCOR race to say "Gentlemen, start your engines!"  One wiseacre pipes in after, adding "Let's Go, Brandon!"

Midwest Chick has the vid.  It's worth the 30 seconds.  Heh.

Anonymous kid, a Grateful Internet thanks you!

Dispatches from Joe Biden's America

Helpful safety tip: don't put bags or open containers of gasoline in your car.

The Democrats are turning into Florida Man in every state ...

Hat tip: American Digest.