A Preference Cascade is when a large portion of the population begins to realize - despite relentless government and/or media propaganda - that a lot of other folks think like they do and that the propaganda is, well propaganda. This is almost always catastrophic for The Powers That Be, because Preference Cascades tend to accelerate. As this progresses, formerly reliable underlings begin to think that TPTB are going to lose, and start to refuse to stick their necks out to protect the current order.
It's one thing to stuff ballot boxes when you think that everyone on your side is on board and your guy is going to win - and any potential investigation will be done in the most slipshod manner. It's quite a different thing when you wonder just how many of the guys on your side are actually going to go through with this, and if the other guy wins will you be facing 20 years in Club Fed.
At the extreme, the security services join the preference cascade. They smell an emerging winner and want to be on side when that happens. At this point, things get pretty grim for TPTB.
I think we're at that stage now - well, not the up against the wall shooting stage - but a cascading loss of confidence and loyalty in the Democratic Party itself for Joe Biden. This will shrink the Margin of Cheat except in the most blue of blue states, and given that it looks like New York and New Jersey may be in play, there may not really be a lot of blue left.
In other words, everyone is starting to realize that the propaganda was just that - propaganda.
Add in the drop in contributions to the Democratic Party (the preference cascade is hitting the donor class, who are realizing that this "investment" may not have a return, and hedge their bets by contributing to Trump).
Now add in the media, who start to see that they are better off trying to help the Democratic Party, rather than mean old Joe Biden.
The question is not whether Trump will win, but whether the Preference Cascade will give him coattails, and how long they will be.
My guess is that the Preference Cascade is in full swing in the Secret Service, as competent and dedicated agents there start to wonder when (not if) to throw their corrupt bosses under the bus. There's a lot coming out about this Charlie Foxtrot in the SS, so that suggests that the lack of loyalty to Joe Biden is advancing nicely there.
Once the Preference Cascade begins, TPTB have precious few tools to counter it. For example, cracking down on leaking from within the Secret Service will do nothing but convince the undecided there that TPTB are untrustworthy and have to go.
Which will make Donald Trump only the second President to serve non-consecutive terms.
18 comments:
Excellent point, and I agree. It 'may' get to the 'wall' stage before November, depending on how desperate TPTB get...
I hope you're right, but the commie, pedo, traitor, Satanists are going to have to be rooted out.
Tree Mike, sure. But right now the commit/pedo/traitor/Satanist coalition looks like it's in pretty serious disarray. My guess is that there will be an internal civil war among the Left to determine who controls things moving forward, because it sure as shootin' won't be the Biden folks.
When that power struggle happens, Deep Staters who normally would be loyal to the Left will sit things out because backing the wrong group will be the express lane to fired. Those are the folks who would need to stuff ballot boxes. I just don't see the needed level of loyalty in that environment.
If they were competent and dedicated agents, they would never have been shielding their corrupt bosses to begin with. None of them should be kept.
Linked.
Excellent, BP.
I think you hit the nail right on the head - and I think it was also you that said that our adversaries are self defeating. They can't run a functional country. Wherever they attain power, failure is often on the way. The newspapers can't sell subsriptions outside of geriatrics and stupid people. The public schools are now moron factories. The courts are one caress of the trigger away from being relevant. They certainly aren't trustworthy. The military is about as competent and ready as the secret service. The banks are going to need to be bailed out again soon. The other institutions are all in decline.
The good news is that we CAN voat our way out. The first step is sweeping guys like Biden, Macron, Turdo and their regimes out of office. Then their toadies must be purged from their positions in the institutions.
Vladimir Putin did it and Russia is now the third strongest nation economically and possibly first, militarily. He did that within the space of about 5 years, by leading as a simple, honest adult. They shoot and imprison corrupt officials in Russia and we need to start doing the same in the west - and begin making repairs when they are gone.
Glen, look what's happening in Argentina. Inflation is effectively zero percent. In Argentina
All that's needed is a major house cleaning. What's interesting is that there will be howls about the End Of The World when the first Agency is shut down - none of which will happen. Which will make shutting down the next easier.
Oh, and the Admirals responsible for the Littoral Combat Ship and the Generals who did the F-35 should all be included ...
According to some sources, Mayorkas is going to block the USSS Head, Aunti Box-Wine from testifying as it seems she's incapable of keeping the story straight
Pretty bad when you're dumber than Kamala
Excellent post, Peter. I'd never heard that term before, but I sure have seen it happen. Thanks for the education.
Useful idiots, history tells us what happens to them
Yet, it's not Joe TPTB have to reckon with. It's JILL. She's running the show, imho.
It will be nice to see and I really hope Trump fires them all on day 1. Every single US Attorney and every single executive office holder.
Seems the swamp critters have noticed the treat of unemployment and have been passing laws (thanks Weeping Shumer) to PREVENT Trump from firing anybody in the Blob without extended lawfare.
Also, the minor issue of the Hoover Effect. Seems the Democrats saw a major recession coming and rand a Dead Dog candidate so they could BLAME Hoover for the troubles.
Shanty towns were called Hoovervilles, newspapers over bums (now druggies?) were called Hoover Blankets and so on.
THEN the Democrats rushed in blaming everybody else, singing their victory song "Happy Days are here again" (look it up) and emplaced the Gold Stealing socialist Roosevelt and his New Society upon us.
It's the Greater Depression facing us. Far too many T-bills AKA American Debt is coming BACK HOME and inflation (soon I suspect Hyper-Inflation) is already showing up in our grocery carts and ODDLY enough in the drop of housing prices as economic failure sneaks in. Folks too broke to buy them. See Area Ocho's article about removing his house from the market to rental in HOPES that a Trump win will reverse the losses.
They may LET Trump and MAGA take the "Win" (and cheat just enough for a minor NO Massive People's CHOICE victory) and let Trump be the Hoover-Scapegoat.
Got trusted friends, trusted family (no betrayal deeper than family), plenty of food, safe water and ability to fix your home from chaos damage.
The Leftists are good at one thing, CHAOS.
Interesting dynamic internal to the Republicans. Some factions are as hysterical about J.D. as the Left is. Neocons obviously because he is probably out there beyond Trump in terms of ending the forever wars. But also Wall Street as they contemplate the idea of populism being institutionalized rather than a one-off with Trump. I assume that is Trump's calculation in picking him. My message to Wall Street is FAFO. They created the conditions JD wrote about.
"I think we're at that stage now - well, not the up against the wall shooting stage..."
Until we reach that stage, I'll be popping no champagne corks.
Stupid should hurt.
Evil should end up against a wall, or at the end of a rope.
In full public display.
Oh, and someone can't count: color me shocked.
Russia is the 11th strongest economy, behind Canada and barely ahead of Mexico.
This is why the ruble is worth less than the Mexican peso.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/by-gdp
Their military is the 6th largest in terms of active troops, and 6th largest in total troops.
Behind North Korea, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Ukraine.
Which explains their amazing success in Ukraine over the last 870+ days.
But that fluctuates daily when they lose 1/5th of their forces every year to never-ending casualties, and another 30% to annual turnover.
In per capita terms, they rank 22nd in terms of total forces per 1000, and 20th in active forces per 1000.
Which ranks them behind Portugal and Singapore, respectively.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
They are the Bangladesh of militaries, but their nuclear arsenal makes them Pakistan, and most of their forces are unusable for foreign adventures, because they need them to keep their closest "ally" from invading Siberia, and the rest to keep the home populace in line.
Facts matter.
"I think we're at that stage now - well, not the up against the wall shooting stage..."
Until we get to that stage, there should be no popping of champagne corks.
Yes Aesop, FACTS MATTER. A 3rd rate economy, lousy military (per you oft screeds) has all of NATO nearly disarmed and pondering using nukes to "win" against Russia.
We're buying 155 shells from South Korea, ok? Is that a GOOD THING?
Fake Wallstreet numbers from America doesn't grant us immunity from doing an Economic Collapse. What's the value of any number of dollars X Zero?
BTW thanks for the economic advice about the Ruble last year or so. I made over 30K net betting against the failure of the Ruble you predicted.
Got anymore stock tips I can do a reverse investment in?
Stick to music Aesop. Your good at that.
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