Who won, and who lost?

Looking back after ten years, it's clear that this story isn't done yet.  However, we can look back and see that there have been a lot of losers, and fewer winners.

The four biggest losers

Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda are the biggest losers, by far.  Tip O'Neil once said that all politics was local, and al Qaeda was aiming explicitly at the Muslim world and the Middle East in particular.  The Governments were seen as corrupt and lacking in legitimacy; it was into this vacuum that Osama intended to lead al Qaeda.  Choose the Strong Horse, the one that does not fear to take on even the Great Satan itself.

Well, that didn't work out very well for them.  The al Qaeda organizational structure proved more resilient than many expected.  Their cell structure and discipline stood them in good stead, for a while.  But the inevitable grinding down by western Intelligence operations ultimately showed that cell structured organizations ultimately crack and splinter when enough nodes are eliminated.  The attrition has been brutal, and any dreams of a new al Qaeda dominated Caliphate are a joke.

The expected uprising by the "Arab Street" never happened.  What did happen was the 20,000 - 40,000 al Qaeda trained fighters have been mostly killed, in Afghanistan, or Fallujah, or elsewhere.  Expertise like bomb making has become much less capable, because those jihadis that have superior skill have been taken out.

The Middle Eastern Governments are big losers.  Saddam Hussein is gone, and good riddance.  The Taliban have been out of power in Afghanistan for a decade now, other than isolated remote areas.  From Pakistan to the North African shores, the old, corrupt governments are going, or are gone.  What will replace them is a mystery, but the status quo ante is dead.

The Main Stream Media.  Their coverage of the events of this last decade have not just been grotesquely biased, they've been grotesquely inept in not even trying to cover this up any more.  While still influential, their credibility is gone with all voters other than Democrats.

Europe - especially France and Germany.  European dreams to use the UN to hobble the Hyperpower are a dusty memory.  The failed sanctions, and the corrupt way that France in particular manipulated the Security Council vote have shown the western alliance to be a paper tiger.  The best case scenario is that a Democratic White House mouths pretty (if empty) platitudes.  After that, Europe should hope for a President Perry to tell them to kiss off, because there might be a President Ron Paul who would pull us out of NATO entirely.

Quite frankly, it's time for Europe to look out for itself.  American interests continue in Eastern Europe and the UK, but it's hard to see a justification for most of the rest.  Have fun in the EU as the wheels come off, guys.

Minor losers

Turkey.  Their chances of membership in the EU were dead before their Islamist government started heading full speed towards getting themselves kicked out of NATO.  Ultimately, neither they nor we will really care about the separation, which is why this is a minor loss.


The American Public.  The USA Patriot Act and the TSA are just the two most visible areas where the "War On Terror" have chipped away at our domestic freedoms (the proliferation of SWAT teams is another).  Our government is making life more difficult in ways that would have seemed unimaginable a decade ago.  But this is a minor loss, because the American public is beginning to react against an Imperial Federal Government.  Hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets in protest, and have turned out Congressional incumbents in a historical rout that looks to be amplified next year.  Where this ultimately ends is anyone's guess.

The American Military.  While the 2001 Afghan and 2003 Iraq campaigns were brilliant in concept and execution, the time since has been a tremendous strain on the military.  Some of this is the result of the (questionable) strategic goal of nation building.  More is due to the inept and craven Rules Of Engagement that put our troops in danger for quite questionable benefit.

Winners

Muslim populations, especially in the west.  It's clear that western populations are not hostile to Muslim citizens - the MSM tried to bait NASCAR fans by dressing as Muslims; everyone ignored them.  This has demonstrated to the western Muslim community that they are not at risk.  This has led to a persistent failure of those populations to be radicalized:

The Pew Center has an interesting new report on Muslim Americans. Some items from it:

...

2. The overwhelming majority of American Muslims rejects political violence against civilians (81% say “Suicide bombing/other violence against civilians is [never] justified to defend Islam from its enemies,” compared to only 19% in the Palestinian territories, 38% in Egypt, and 60% in Turkey), and have very unfavorable views of al Qaeda (70%).

George W. Bush.  Obama has continued or even extended (predator drone strikes, Libya) his war policies.  This is perhaps the most unexpected turn of events, but ultimately will rehabilitate Bush's war strategy.

It's anyone's guess how this will play out, but this in my opinion is the biggest win for our side and the biggest loss to al Qaeda.  So far, at least, this is huge.

Wither next?  That's unclear, and neither party has a coherent answer or strategy.