The yellow band is the model predictions relied upon by the IPCC. The black line is the observed temperatures as recorded by the RSS Satellite system. Note that the observed temperatures have been outside the 5% - 95% confidence interval since the early 2000s. At the same time, we see this:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide has been rising monatomically each year. These two are what you whip out when some idiot sneers at you that everyone knows the Greenhouse Effect is settled science. Personally, I find that sort of arrogance to be more than a little annoying. A sweet reply of "Well then why do the satellite sensors report there's not been any warming for almost 20 years? After all, the Greenhouse Effect is settled science." The results of that are usually pretty gratifying, but then I'm a horrible denier-type person.