The Great Pause has now persisted for 17 years 11 months. Indeed, to three decimal places on a per-decade basis, there has been no global warming for 18 full years. Professor Ross McKitrick, however, has upped the ante with a new statistical paper to say there has been no global warming for 19 years.I have great confidence in the satellite record because (a) it is truly global in scope, (b) it is entirely automated, (c) the sensors are well calibrated, and (d) it is not adjusted, gridded, and otherwise manipulated. The data as recorded are the data that are reported. All of this is in great contrast to the surface record.
Whichever value one adopts, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that we face a “climate crisis” caused by our past and present sins of emission.
Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months.
This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
So a full half of the historical record of the most reliable global temperature data set shows zero warming, despite enormous increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. None of the climate models have predicted this, which is a layman's way of saying that the scientific predictions from the models has been falsified.
And falsification is at the core of the Scientific Method. Bottom line: the models are busted.