Wednesday, November 6, 2013

The Democratic Party's 2014 implosion

Time to get the popcorn, because the game is only just now starting.  We are going to witness a historical repudiation of the Democratic Party in next year's election - worse even than the debacle of 2010.  And it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people.

The story that's causing the panic in the Party today is the complete failure of the web site which, after burning through $600M, is so pathetically inadequate that nobody will say how many people successfully used it for its intended purpose (buying health insurance policies).  The fact that nobody will say tells us all we need to know about the system.  Dead On Arrival, the promises that it will be up and running on December 1 are laughable.

And so we will see the story of "incompetent Government Obamacare program" continue for months.  That's what's fueling the panic.  And that's not the story of next year's coming disaster.

The disaster arrives once the web site starts working.  Sometime next spring, enough band aids and rubber bands will be affixed to the servers so that large numbers of people will be able to actually enroll and purchase insurance.  The story then will be the sticker shock that will hit the majority (and possibly the large majority) of people using the site.  Premiums will approximately double, as will deductables.  It's hard to tell just how bad this will be because there are no actual measurements to work with, just estimates.  But it will be bad, so bad that (like the collapse) even the biased MSM will be forced to cover the story.

Next summer will be a deep pit of despair for Democratic incumbents running for reelection.  We may not see many campaign appearances due to mobs of angry hecklers turning out to shout down the speeches.  But that isn't the worst that the Party will go through.

Obama delayed the Employer Mandate for a year, moving the implementation date from 1 January 2013 to 1 January 2014.  The reason is that while 15 Million people purchased individual insurance policies (the Individual Mandate), most people get insurance from their employers.  So what happens there?

The Insurance companies will spend Q1 next year figuring out what plans will need to change to meet the Obamacare mandate (likely they already know this already).  They will also figure out what will happen to plan cost (hint: it won't go down).  Starting in the Summer of 2014 corporate HR departments will start receiving updated plan and cost information for their employee's policies.

This has to happen, because companies have to budget for 2015.

And so in the Autumn of 2014, employees will start receiving notice that their health care plans will be different - very different.  Costs (co-pays and deductables) will go up significantly and physician networks will be restricted.  The best case scenario for the Democrats is that some companies in competitive industries (high tech, oil exploration) will eat most of these costs, but for tens of millions of Americans, they will go through the same shock that people in the individual insurance market will have gone through.

What happens in Autumn 2014?  There's an election.

So riddle me this, dear reader: what are the Democrat's chances with perhaps 50 Million people steaming mad at the Democratic Party's signature accomplishment, their biggest "victory" in 50 years?

Next year will be a rolling thunder of terrible news for the Democratic Party.  It will be a disaster of such magnitude that the MSM won't be able to defend them.  The story will be unstoppable, and the story is that the Middle Class has been screwed by the Democratic Party.  This will hit harder because women voters (a traditional Democratic constituency) will be livid that their family's health care is a lot worse and a lot more expensive.

The current talk about incompetence is actually doing the Democrats a temporary favor.  Once the system starts working and the costs become unarguable, there will be hell to pay.  Get the pop corn, this is going to be fun to watch.


Overload in Colorado said...

Question is, just like 2010/2012, will unhappiness in the Democrats evaporate by the presidential election in 2016?

Carteach said...

I suspect the Democrats will do fine in the upcoming elections.

Trained barking seals seldom turn on their trainers, as long as there is even the smell of a dead fish around.

Dave H said...

My concern is that if the Democrats do implode, who takes their place? I don't have any faith left for the Republican party, and I'm not content enough with the current landscape to hope for an impotent government that'll leave things unchanged.

Joseph said...

I wish I could share your optimism, mate, but 2012 was supposed to be a bloodbath for them as well. At this point, I'm afraid that several decades of government indoctrination substituting for education have created too many that are simply unwilling to entertain the idea of the Dems being capable of any wrongdoing.

My prediction: they will blame it on the Tea Party in general ("If not for the shutdown..."), if not Ted Cruz in particular. The lie will be astoundingly, blatantly obvious to anyone paying attention, but the dumbasses that put the current regime in power in the first place will swallow it and spread it, far and wide.

And 2016? I despair to find that I am with Donald Sensing: "there is never going to be another Republican president. Ever."

Sorry to be a party pooper. I hope to the heavens that I'm wrong.

Matt W said...

I hope you are right, for various reasons - none of which are that I'm a big fan of most Republican politicans - but I am not optimistic about it.

As Carteach said, too many voters vote for their party's guy no matter what (short of some scandal larger than the ACA, Benghazi, IRS, etc..). The only folks likely to sway are the "independents" and many of them are voting more and more for third party candidates - which mostly take away votes from Republicans.

My prediction? In 2014 the House will stay R, the Senate will stay D (although be precariously close to swinging R) and things will die down enough by 2016 that the White House will welcome another D.

And the sad part of the whole thing? With most of the front-running candidates for federal offices, we lose either way. I has a sad.

Jester said...

I am going with the thought that this post is going to be proven very wrong.

The biggest reason is that the MSM will still be able to cover for this ineptitude, and the fact checking will of course blame the .gov shutdown(s) and the Republicans for not helping to fix the problems Obamacare has.

For example, Yes you see everyone, we passed this law and it was a good law but we had to make adjustments because of the deals we had to cut simply because the Republicans would not vote for this outright and convinced some of our side to not vote unless the original bill was altered (see the kick backs and special provisions.)
Then we identified the problems that we did not know where there and the Republicans would not help us fix them!

And while some folks will be hopping mad, the MSM and the Democrats will trot out the usual sorts, the percentages of people that were either not able to be insured due to some horrible disease and those people will say with out this bill we would have died! If you take this away from us and others like us you are guilty of wanting us dead!

They will also employ the same tactics they have already in this recession, See fuel prices. They know most Americans will grumble but they won't throw anyone out of office for it, they will just tighten their belts more to the costs and absorb them.

And this will be possible because there is next to 0 faith in the Republican establishment to even make a serious attempt to end this entire bill. They see the Mccains, the Mittens, the Grahms out there that they don't see as any different than the Democrats.
Even if they made the overtures to scrap this bill you will see such obstructionism that it will be impossible to actually undo.
As a result people will see zero help from the Republicans and will not be willing to vote for them.

Don't get me wrong Borepatch, I hope that this prediction is right but I simply will point to two states in the last election that the Republicans came from.
Massachusetts and Wisconsin.

Obama won both, when your candidate cant even pull the election most notably in Wisconsin where its been leaning Republican of late (See the election of Gov Walker and his subsequent recall election.) that signifies some serious problems.
And you can see the cycle repeated by the Republicans now, with the MSN and the Establishment giving the fat whore Chris Christie the nod to charge the cannons for whatever contender awaits.
2016 will be to far off for this to current situation to be remembered, and the affects will not hit hard enough soon enough for it to do anything in 2014.
You think the Democrats will not push out some more orders or delays so the full force of the pain is felt too soon before the elections?

Hell, the Republicans are even on board with delaying the individual mandates or any other parts of it when they could just sit back, say you won the elections remember? This is your baby 100%.

They can't even do that.

Chickenmom said...

Don't forget about amnesty. He has a full year to execute an executive order granting illegals citizenship.
That's millions upon millions of new Democrats in the voting pool.

Borepatch said...

Chickenmom, IANAL but I really don't see how this is the sort of thing that can be done via Executive Order.

Anonymous said...

"IANAL but I really don't see how this is the sort of thing that can be done via Executive Order.

Uh, BP....didn't His Royal Highness do exactly that when he used an Executive Order to postpone the employer mandate one year? The ACA was established law: passed by both houses of Congress and signed by the President - yet an Executive Order can be used to change the terms of said enacted law? (I keep waiting for Congress to regain consciousness and realize that Obama lowered their Constitutional value much closer to zero with that EO, but I'm not holding my breath).

I, too, think you're wrong. Obama's media has a whole year to tar Republicans, who are feckless enough to stand there and take it.

What we need is an army of conservatives and constitutionalists in Washington. What we have instead is Republicans. We're doomed. Get used to it.

Chris said...

In addition, the Obama Administration will use the power of the IRS to inhibit the campaign activities of anyone opposed to his anointed successor, and will use the NSA to threaten disclosure of inconvenient information about anyone likely to defeat a vulnerable Democrat. And, as for the House, remember how gerrymandered most districts are (dead girl, live boy, etc.).

The Democrats have their hands on the tools that should keep them in power for quite a while, unless the GOP elites implode and/or a strong third party emerges, neither of which is likely over the next 12 months. I wish I would have to eat these words a year from now, and I realize that, living in MD, my perceptions are colored by the Marxist majority here, but my reason and experience says otherwise.

Borepatch said...

I would point out that seething rage (over ruined finances and health care) will not go away. Add the fact that the law is widely viewed as illegitimate, and we very well may see a redefinition of the term "safe district". We're a year out from the elections and you're already seeing panic breaking out among Democratic pols. They don't have much faith in a politicized IRS or NSA.

John Balog said...

Good article, but I have two thoughts about it.

1. I agree there will be mass seething rage, but who will it be directed towards? Always easier to blame the Jews/kulaks/Republicans etc than the ones who are providing the panem et circenses.

2. I remember the last time we had a Republican majority in the House and Senate coupled with a Republican President. And I remember the Patriot Act, Medicare part D, No Child Left Behind, and of course the systematic sexual assault security theater that is the TSA.

You may be right that the D's will be taking it in the d in 2014, but I see no realistic hope that things will actually get better in the country as a result.

Borepatch said...

John, can't argue with you on the GOP. Just saying that the Democrats have brought this fiasco on themselves.

But I can't see how anyone will ever blame "Obamacare" on the Republicans. The Low Information Voters have internalized that this came from Dear Leader.

John Balog said...

I can see it being spun as "It was a great law, but those eeevvvviiiillllll Republicans didn't give us enough power and that's why it isn't good!"

Similar to the "Chicago's gun violence problem is because of the lax gun laws in Indiana" argument. Of course it's patently wrong and stupid, but after Obama was both a dismal failure and thoroughly screwed his own base and then still got re-elected I have given up on the electorate being able to count to 10 let alone draw conclusions based on evidence.

Jester said...

John hit it on the head there. Between the so called "Moderates" On our side trying to fix this disaster to get some treats from the Media and the fact that the Media is just as glad as the Democrats to spin this as anyone elses fault but their own, this will not go well for anyone but the Democrats.