Saturday, November 22, 2008

US Intelligence predicts EU will be "Hobbled Giant" in 2025

US Intelligence also predicts that sun will rise in the east in 2025:
It forecasts that Europe's shrinking working-age population will become a major test of its social welfare model. "Progress on economic liberalization is likely to continue only in gradual steps until aging populations or prolonged economic stagnation force more changes – a crisis point that may not hit before some time in the next decade and might be pushed off even further." The agency said there will be no easy solutions for the problem, save cutbacks in health and retirement benefits, "which most states have not begun to implement or even to contemplate."
Now, in all fairness, this is the unclassified report that they've released to the press. I hope that the classified one has deeper insights than this:
Disagreements in threat perceptions and a likelihood that defense spending will remain uncoordinated suggests the EU won't be a major military power in 2025, the report states. "The national interests of the bigger powers will continue to complicate EU foreign and security policy and European support for NATO could erode."
Anyone who reads Robert Kagan would be able to tell you this.

Heck, it'll probably look like this in 5 years, let alone 17.

1 comment:

TOTWTYTR said...

Anyone who has read Mark Steyn's "American Alone" would be able to tell them this. Not only that, but the trend is irreversible in some nations, such as Russia and Japan.

Demographics is destiny.

Someone will inherit (read capture) the land formerly called France, Russia, Japan, what ever, the only question is who. For Japan and parts of Russia one would think the Chinese, but right now their population is also not growing at a sustainable rate.

Good land will always find someone to occupy it.