This seems to be somewhat behind the early voting rate of 2004. What does this mean? Beats me.
And the latest Gallup polls look shaky. This at least seems consistent, but does not support my prediction. If you're at all interested in this, you should be following Stolen Thunder.
I'm sticking with my earlier comments: the polls don't tell you anything useful. I'm very convinced that the "experts" are as mystified about what's going on as I am.
Also, my referral logs show that people are looking for election predictions. If you came here looking for expert opinion, you're likely to be disappointed. Boy, howdy.
2 comments:
Thanks for the pointer to Stolen Thunder. I'll have to read more of his writings to get a feel for his expertise, but the logic in the post I read seems sound.
Everyone seems to think that the polling is weird this time around. The polls seem incredibly volatile, gut I don't know what that signifies.
Unless it means that the media is lying to us. Can't be that, though, can it?
Most interesting post on Stolen Thunder so far was the question journalists are supposed to ask first: who paid for the poll?
I had been assuming that polster's reputations counted. I hadn't thought to ask "to whom?" If the answer is "to whomever pays the bills" then the $600M that Obama is spending becomes a very interesting number.
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