Trump will win because:
- The polls pervasively understate his support (the "shy Trump voter").
- Enthusiasm for Clinton is low, enthusiasm for Trump is high. Early voting is showing a pattern closer to 2008 than 2012 (high turnout). Given the enthusiasm gap, this is bad news for Clinton and supports the Shy Trump Voter hypothesis.
- This (like 2008) is a "Change Election". Three quarters or more of voters think that the country is on the wrong track. Clinton is the insider, Trump is the outsider. Advantage: Trump.
- The Clinton camp is paralyzed by the emerging scandals. It's been 5 days and there's no coherent reply to the FBI reopening the email investigation. The paralysis says that Clinton's inner circle is divided on what to do, and she has poor leadership skills - and so the campaign twists in the wind. This is a very, very bad sign for her.
- The Marc Rich announcement today is almost inexplicable. There's no reason that a FOIA request announcement couldn't wait until after the election. Instead, it came out 4 days after the previous FBI announcement. My take is that Obama has polling showing that she's going to lose, and lose big. It's no secret that the Obamas and the Clintons despise each other - this is his chance to dismantle the Clinton machine in the Democratic party (and hill the resulting power vacuum with his people).
- The UK betting markets are showing the same pattern as before the Brexit vote - a few big money bets on Clinton (as with Remain), but a huge number of small bets on Trump (Leave).
- Independents are leaving Gary Johnson and breaking hard for Trump. The latest poll from North Carolina has Johnson down 5 and Trump up 5. This feels like more confirmation of the Shy Trump Voter hypothesis.
- There is very little or no equivalent data pointing to a strengthening by Clinton. If she were actually as far ahead as we've been told, there would be evidence dropping from the trees. There isn't.
- The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates, several times over the course of 2017, with guidance that they will do more. This will tank the stock market and (officially) put the country into recession.
- A significant minority of the GOP could refuse to vote for his proposals (e.g. Obamacare repeal). This is probably suicidal for them after the last few election cycles and the increasing anger among the rank and file GOP voters, but they're not called the Stupid Party for nothing.
- The Federal Agencies can basically do a sit down strike, slow rolling Trump Administration initiatives. It's the stubborn mule syndrome.
- Audit the Federal Reserve. Who got a bail out, who didn't, and why. Publish the results (because the whole situation reeks of the insider, smoke filled room).
- Prosecute banksters for the financial crisis of 2008. The Obama administration owed too much to them to do this, but if the Fed declares war on Trump then there's no reason to think that the gloves won't come off. I don't know what the statute of limitations are, but simply releasing a list of who did what and who decided not to prosecute them will inflame many voters (many of them Democrats).
- Set up a fund to primary every GOP incumbent who refused to vote to repeal ObamaCare. Find credible candidates to run against them. Start with the weakest 10 or 20 incumbents who are up for reelection in 2018 and make an example of them for the others. Keep bringing up their names as "Dead Men Walking".
- Prosecute whole offices in selected agencies for violation of 18 USC § 242 - Deprivation of Rights under color of law. A good place to start is at the Veteran's Administration, where a bunch of vets are showing up as Prohibited Persons in the FBI firearms background check database. The IRS is another place to start, with the office that seemingly continues to deny tax exempt status to Tea Party groups. A couple thousand perp walks will focus the bureaucracy's attention - as Dr. Johnson said, the idea of being hanged in a fortnight concentrates the mind wonderfully.
Would Trump do this? Almost certainly not. But Trump is unpredictable - he'll do something. And that something will be aimed at establishment types who he will paint as part of a corrupt system. And it will hurt them, maybe ruin them.
Just ask Jeb Bush.
The only thing certain is that the Establishment will be at war with Trump's administration from November 9.