Friday, November 11, 2016

Perhaps Trump didn't win, Clinton lost

Interesting analysis, although it's still early for having data to crunch:
Trump had roughly the same vote totals as Romney and McCain, and did relatively better with non-whites and Hispanics.   The difference in the election was not any particular enthusiasm for Trump, and certainly not any unique white enthusiasm, but a total lack of enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton.   Look at the numbers in Drum's post -- Hillary did worse with every group.  For god sakes, she did 5 points worse than Obama with unmarried women, the Lena Dunham crowd that theoretically should have been her core constituency.  She did 8 points worse than Obama with Latino women!

This is not a story of a Trump revolution.  This is a story of a loss by a really weak Clinton.  Obama would have dusted the floor with Trump.
As I said, I expect we'll see better data over the next couple months, but this is worth keeping in mind.


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Gordon Freece said...

I've been getting the impression that this was a very normal election in a lot of ways: People mostly voted for their party's candidate, and enthusiasm mattered.

The difference lies in where the Overton Window slid to, without affecting the normality of the election. That *is* big. They said if didn't try to please the Democrats with your rhetoric, it wouldn't be a normal election. But it was.

matism said...

I believe you might find the difference is the #NEVERTRUMP wing of the GOP, who voted for Hillary because, after all, there is very little difference between her and the REST of the Rove Republicans.

libertyman said...

Well, I don't know exactly, but it seems like the cities versus the country people. Or the coastal people versus the center of the country.
And you are right, Clinton was such a weak candidate that some old coot of a socialist from Vermont could have, and probably should have beat her.

.45ACP+P said...

Much as I approve of the outcome, This is dead on. She lost. She turned out lower numbers than Obama did. Trump's numbers do not show any plane shift in our favor. We misinterpret this at our peril.