Coastal "Elites" and Wannabes
Perhaps more than any, this was Obama's natural support group. The people that are impressed with things like the Harvard Law Review naturally gravitated to Obama. A different (although touchy) way of describing this group is SWPL. SWPL types love African American Presidents of the Harvard Law Review, for example.
This group is at risk now. Their motivation is feeling superior to everyone else - Smart Uber Alles is their watch word - but they harbor a terrible fear: they have a huge inferiority complex when it comes to Europe. Remember all the "Thank God Obama was elected; now I don't have to apologize to everyone in Europe anymore" clap trap that we heard in 2008? Well guess what the Europeans are saying about Barry?
AFP - A Syrian caricature shows US President Barack Obama smile and pluck the petals of a daisy, as he wonders, "Should I bomb? Or shouldn't I bomb?"This is only the beginning. Obama's foreign policy is a disaster, and will infuriate Europeans. The not-so-smart ones will be mad because a weaker America will force them to spend more on their own defense as the world becomes more dangerous. The smart ones will be mad because they (rightly) perceive that their influence over the American SWPL types gives them actual power - by getting the USA to act in their interest. A weakening America weakens them. Get used to apologizing for our idiot President next time you're in Klosters, yuppies.
As Obama delays a strike against President Bashar al-Assad's regime thought imminent just over a week ago, Syrians on both sides of their civil war are resorting to black humour, sharing jokes and cartoons via mobile phone and the Internet.
After saying he had the authority to act on his own to strike Syria for its deadly use of chemical weapons near Damascus on August 21, Obama then referred the matter to Congress for a vote.
Now, with the prospects of a quick congressional vote diminishing and Obama cautiously welcoming a Russian initiative that would see Assad hand over his chemical arsenal, an imminent decision by the president is even less likely.
That apparent hesitation to act has given both pro- and anti-Assad Syrians a field day.
One Syrian posted a picture of Obama on Facebook with a biting caption that reads: "When Congress gives me the green light to strike, I will ask my wife Michelle and my in-laws. If they say it's alright, I'll go ahead!"
Unions
The Unions are mad because Obamacare will kill their health care plans. These were won through hard negotiations with Management (in other words, actual union work) and now the Democrats are going to tax them into oblivion. Unions are all about pocketbook issues with their members, and while the Union Management will certainly back the Democrats, rank and file will (justifiably) wonder just what they're getting from all this "political influence".
Women
George W. Bush got a big boost after 9/11, as "Security Moms" saw actions they interpreted as protecting them and their families. Bush lost these votes in the aftermath of his incompetent response to hurricane Katrina, as his perceived incompetence led them to think that when a disaster strikes, he's an empty suit.
Obama won women by a significant margin. As he is seen as lurching from one knee jerk policy to another, he turns this demographic off just like Bush did.
Discussion
None of these groups are likely to start registering Republican anytime soon, but each is taking a hit where it hurts thanks to Obama's policies. Whether it's SWPL types and their vanity, or Union workers looking at after tax pay, or women wondering whether their families will be safe, each group will be less enthusiastic about the Democratic Party in general and Obama in particular. This should be a testable prediction: we should see lower turnout in each of these groups in the elections next year that we would expect in a normal off-year vote. It doesn't have to be a big reduction - even a 5% drop in these groups will make an enormous impact. Demoralization will be the norm.
2013 has been a disaster for Obama, with major losses in gun control (a fight he didn't have to pick) and now foreign policy. If this continues (and according to this analysis, accelerates) in 2014, then Obama will have negative coat tails (as in fact he had last year). All this spells lame duck. It just started.
10 comments:
Blacks?
I still take exception to the allegation that Bush didn't respond well to Hurricane Katrina. That meme was entirely of the MSM's making.
I was there on the ground as a part of the EMS task force in the disaster area of Mississippi less than 24 after landfall, and there was a Florida urban search and rescue (USAR) team that was there 8 hours before we were.
Florida sent hundreds of trucks and supplies and aid workers to Mississippi as a part of the response within hours of landfall. Help was slow in coming into Louisiana because the governor never asked for it. The way that the law is written, the President can't send help that the governor doesn't request.
This is why Mississippi was hardly heard from.
Well done....
Bush didn't do all that badly (actually fairly well) in his response to Katrina.
The failure was generally local, county (parish), and state levels.
Without those, there is only so much that the feds can do...Without breaking the law.
And much of the perceived "failure" was actually media trying to make him look bad.
Bob, it's hard to see that the black vote will ever peel off much from supporting Obama. If anything, the continued lousy economy will lead to lower enthusiasm levels.
Divemedic, Bush blew the PR battle - actually, he did'nt even fight the battle. He let the media get away with the most ridiculous charges without a peep. That's when he started to lose women.
"He let the media get away with the most ridiculous charges without a peep. That's when he started to lose women."
By the same token, Obama may not lose women as quickly as all that, so long as the media reliably carry his water.
On that note, it was amusing to listen to National Propaganda Radio try to play Hearst this week. "Should we allow Russia(1,2) to stop America from acting?"
Coming up next on Morning Edition: Remembering the Maine. This is NPR. National Public Radio.
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1. Said by an NPR host to a congressman who referenced the lack of UN authority for military action.
2. I wonder how many NPR employees (of a certain age) used to hand out copies of The Spartacist as undergrads. I was a progressive as a youngster, and I attended the "Solidarity Day" anti-Reagan gathering in DC back in 1981. I have a clear memory of seeing a copy of The Spartacist lying in the grass at the Mall with the blaring headline, "Defense of Cuba and the USSR begins in Nicaragua!" Even then, I thought to myself: "Srsly?"
The biggest problem with all of this, as you called out in your last paragraph, is that the only difference most of these groups make is in turnout, not actual votes.
When it comes down to it, the majority of those groups that DO turn out will always vote for the Democrat, regardless of what the previous one did to their piece of the pie.
So the only hope is that Obama turns off and discourages so many of those key groups, that they don't feel motivated to actually get out and vote for the next couple of years.
Matt, the biggest problem that Republican candidates have been having the last nearly 10 years is that their base is unenthusiastic and not turning out.
So it does translate into votes.
None of the above matters he who controls the Diebold corporation controls the election. It worked during the last election.
Let me jump on the Bush wasn't incompetent on Katrina band wagon.
I was there in the days immediately before Katrina. In fact I left on Saturday morning on one of the last flights out.
The city of NOLA and the stated did absolutely nothing to prepare for the storm. Nothing. Not. One. Thing.
The military did a great job rescuing people, and FEMA got in when FEMA was supposed to get in. That is 48-72 hours after the end of the storm. Everyone in emergency preparedness knows that, but in NOLA and LA, they ignored it.
There was no way that Bush was going to win the PR battle when every news outlet, including Fox, pretended that the federal government should have been there before hand.
Obama is losing support day be day, but what difference does it make? He really doesn't care about that since he's a lame duck anyway.
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