Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Well, I was wrong

I like to say that smart people won't argue with your numbers, they'll argue with your assumptions.  I'm not sure which of my assumptions were wrong, but the election didn't turn out at all how I expected.  I'm going to have to think on this for a while, because I don't like being wrong and want to recalibrate.

That recalibration may cause a reassessment of the effectiveness of the Tea Party.  It almost certainly won't cause a reassessment of the Republican Party as it currently exists.  It seems that turnout was something like 113 Million voters, which is way down from what I expected (maybe by 20 Million).  I'll be shocked if the GOP get out the vote effort didn't fail miserably.

I expect the economy to take an immediate hit, as businesses hoard cash for the expected tax and regulation frenzy.  Full time employment will take a nose dive, as businesses look for ways to avoid the big Obamacare taxes and mandates.  I expect gasoline to go up, as well as electricity rates as coal fired power plants are shuttered by the EPA.  Inflation in general will be back, in a big way.

I expect Congress to fail to pass a spending bill, and further expect that sequestration will hit.  I think that Obama played the GOP on this, and now has a golden opportunity to take a Trillion dollars from the Defense Department while blaming the Republicans for Grandma not getting a Social Security check.

I expect the Press to cover for him for all of this.

I keep waiting for Greece to leave the Euro, and am surprised it hasn't happened yet.  Then again, clearly my prognostications aren't particularly accurate lately.  What's new and different about Greece is that the rise of the fascists:
Fascist gangs are turning Athens into a city of shifting front lines, seizing on crimes and local protests to promote their own movement, by claiming to be the defenders of recession ravaged Greece.
As America falls back into recession, Europe will slow down as well, fuelling the fascists.

The silver lining, of course, is that Mitt Romney was entirely not up to this job.  More on that after I've thought some.


ASM826 said...

The Tea Party stayed away. There was a strong "none of the above" silent vote yesterday.

BobG said...

I was expecting Obama to do well. We have a lot of parasites and idiots in this country.

agirlandhergun said...

I never wanted anyone to be right more than I wanted you to be. I just didn't have faith in the American people to give up the entitled attitudes.

Jay G said...

I really, really, REALLY didn't want to be right about this...

Ajdshootist said...

I feel so sorry for you, welcome to the U.S.S.A. As for Greece over here in the UK the papers and others say they will leave at the end of the year,I just wish we would leave the EEC/EU i for one never voted to join.

Bubblehead Les. said...

Also, here's something else to worry about: Israel/Iran.

If Romney won, the Persians would have been in a Freak, because they know that Romney and Netenyahu are Good Friends, and that Mittens would have Green Lighted the Israelis.

But since Obama won, the Persians now feel safe, knowing that The ReAnointed One's Foreign Policy is go on TeeWee and blame a YouTube Video.

But the Israelis now know that the U.S. will hang them out to dry. So what's to prevent Netanyahu from saying "Enough!", and going for it.

Either way, it's not looking good for "Peace in Our Time" Obama.

Or us.

drjim said...

I'm speechless at the stupidity of the American people.....

instinct said...

I'm not. I work with them.

I mentioned "Fast and Furious" and they literally asked what a movie had to do with the election. None of them knew about Benghazi and only a few even remembered we were fighting in Afghanistan.

What did they remember? That Obama was giving them 'free' healthcare.

Yeah, Republicans are the stupid party, Democrats are the stupid voters.

Anonymous said...

Your flawed assumption, BP, is that the average American can do basic math and simple budgeting.

I will enjoy watching the 'free bread and circuses' crowd over the next little while.

Old NFO said...

Oh well, now we're in for it...

Anonymous said...

I would like to congratulate the USA on becoming a second tier power militarily and economically. Welcome to the has been club because you will never shake off these socialist scum anytime soon.
The Republican party is now dead.

Anonymous said...

Oh and in case you wonder why the world wanted an Obama win it's because they want to gloat at your demise.

aczarnowski said...

I was really hoping my gut was wrong and your analysis was on the mark Borepatch. Alas.

I'm interested in hearing what you come up with after reviewing the tapes.

Paladin said...

Don't fret, Borepatch. Happens to the best of them. Even Arthur Carlson thought Turkeys could fly.

Weetabix said...

First and second commentors beat me to it.

Lots stayed away because Obama and
Romney are basically indistinguishable.

I'm disappointed that the People voted for debt, bread, and circuses.

Sabra said...

For one, you based your analysis on numbers and rationality. Logic. Critical thinking skills. That sort of thing.

The overwhelming majority of people (I won't say 'Americans,' because nothing I have seen leads me to believe it is unique to our country) simply lack any sort of intellectual curiosity. They do not think their way through life, they feel their way through life. You have to somehow manage to shut off all your higher mental functions to really get them, and when you're that drunk it's hard to write coherent blog posts.

Borepatch said...

As God is my witness, Paladin, I thought that Romney had it in the bag.


Jester said...

I've been thinking on things for the past few hours and came up with some preliminary conclusions or theory's on it.

1. The democratic base reported was accurate, not because of bad polling. (Perhaps slightly misleading) It was accurate because the base has grown that much larger than everyone anticipated. The often touted 2 to 1 rough average of conservative voter to liberal is closer to equal. This ranges from the "Vote in my freebie giving people" to a demographic change that the Republicans have missed. Regardless, the democrat base has grown much larger than expected.

2. Shifting demographics as I pointed out before but more directly to the fact that while the White vote is not lock step with either party as a whole block many other groups are much more so. While Democrats and Republicans fight for the white vote the non white vote is ceeded to the Democrats. This is dangerous as we have seen because the over all population of the current minorities is much larger in relation to the white population. (No this is not a racially charged post, just simple numbers)While I don't think that pandering to anyone like the Democrats have been is the way to go, but addressing what concerns these groups have more directly should happen more frequently. Not doing so means you pray to get all of the white vote.

3. Lack of clear definition of why Mittens was different than Obama. Lots of people Did not see a difference between the two, after all Rommenycare/Obama care. Author of firearms restriction vs someone that may or may not do it. While I do realize you have a huge difference in the VP selections (And to be fair I really liked Ryan) there just was not any great pull to switch candidates. After all we already have someone like it in the white house why switch? This is based off the word of mouth of true purple independents.

4. There was not enough of an attack Obama's short comings. Fast and Furious, Libya, Economic issues, Obamacare and all the rest. While there was laughable and outrage falsehoods spread about Mittens, they were not fought off and he did not take the advantage he had presented to him. People may want to have someone nice in the whitehouse that is likeable but they also want a leader. Someone that will go in for the kill when needed. That did not happen.

5. Overconfidence. This one is pretty self explanatory. So many conservative talk show hosts or writers said this was wrapped up and in the bag. While I doubt this depressed reliable Republican turn out I Think it fired up the other side's base. And they are always good about vote mobilization.

6. Miscalculating the left's hysteria. We know it would not have mattered who was selected to run, the left would flip out. However again the establishment thought that by providing someone that is easy going it would just fall in to place with out contrasting the differences that the Republicans had to offer, and the media's attacks on anything brought to the plate as well as the coverups.

7. The Supreme Court's decision on Obamacare. This I think is one of the biggest issues. With that decision it basically told the electorate that it was okay. That there was nothing wrong with it at all. (Also included in this is Chris Christie's tears over Obama's fake concern about hurricane sandy. Lets see how swiftly he moves with that now that the election concern is over...) Having "Reliable Right Wing folks say Obama is okay and his decisions are just fine told much of the people that there was -no- reason to change. This is where I disagree with you Borepatch that the decision that was made was checkers vs chess. We were flat out sold out on this one. The general unthinking or un-researched populace saw this as a green light.

8. Chris Christie/ Hurricane Sandy.
This was one of those wild cards but between Christie's swooning and the camera op pictures, well finally Obama managed to look presidential. Add in some media play up for it and you have a supposed momentum breaker.

Anonymous said...

We need to end the winner take all system of awarding electoral votes. Think about the outcome of this election if the electoral votes representing the house were awarded to the person with the most votes in the district and those representing the senate were given to the person with the most votes in the state.

Anonymous said...

I think a recalibration of the effect of the Tea Party is premature. The Tea Party didn't have anyone to vote for in this election, so lots of them didn't.

In spite of what you hear from the MSM, the vast majority of Tea Party activists I know are united by fiscal conservatism with a strong lashing of the easier parts of libertarianism (don't feel me up at the airport, keep away from my guns and my right to say what I want). They are are all over the place on most social issues. Romney is a social conservative (marriage, abortion, etc.) and a fiscal liberal (Obamacare IS Romneycare).

Problem was that Romney started running for presidency 6 years ago, and the RNC leadership selected him as the candidate (subject to implosion) hours after McCain lost. The entire primary was about, "Who can challenge Romney." No Tea Party-favored candidate had a chance. And, now that Ryan has a huge X in the "loser" box, we probably won't be able to have him be a viable candidate, which would have fired up the Tea Party.


Jester said...

I'll agree with the above statement that the Tea Party affects were not strongly felt. There was some critical races (West, Love and a couple others) That got beat and beat hard. These often were the same players that spoke out at RNC conventions. What is the take away?
By and large this was not an election about Tea Party values in most races despite what the MSN had to say.
(The one problem as was also previously noted Ryan has a splotch on his record and he holds many tea party ideals. If he returns for another race, that I doubt, unless we see a Ryan/Rubio Ticket or something along those lines)
Most races did not seem to be about "Tea Party" candidates as it was Republicans riding the wave. The real issue is those we could argue being Tea Party such as West, Love and a hand full of others being beaten. And with those we see simply massive amounts of money being poured in from outside the location electorate. To me, in my very humble opinion tells me that the Dememoncats where very highly organized and it slipped past most people's radar's. They knew what races to hit. And they hit at the heart and soul of the Tea Party movement so they could broadcast "Victory"
Mind you, In the case of West/Love two noted black leaders for the Republican party..
Where is the cry for racism in the media in these situations?
Where is the ACLU and the community decrying a unfair election?

No, while this election the left knew was not about Tea Party Ideals, and the Tea Party knew most of the elections were not about it... Well some of us did, the left made it so with the help of the Media.
So now it is a defeat to be learned from. And hopefully the rest of the nation that pays attention or can be made to pay attention does so.
But that will not happen till things get quite bad. Right now, as bad as it is, its still easy.
Just remember that much.