The Czar of Muscovy puts up a very interesting post on what's happening in Europe:
Meanwhile, you look at Czechoslovakia. Pretty decent country. But how much better it became when the Czechs split from Slovakia. Want to suppose that the Czech Republic could easily split into three smaller countries: Bohemia, Moravia, and Silesia?In fact, the last quarter century in Europe has been an unending saga of secession, despite the Euro Elite's mad unification project. Consider:
Look at Yugoslavia. As soon as they could, the Yugoslavs split into six countries. And then Serbia and Kosovo split up. Eventually, Bosnia and Herzegovina will probably split.
Today, Catalan is looking to leave Spain—and with good reason.
1989 - The Soviet Empire disintegrated, with its client kingdoms overthrown. Some (as the Czar points out) like Czechoslovakia splintered. Secession.
1994 - Yugoslavia falls apart. The Czar covers this perfectly adequately, so read his post.
1997 - Scotland and Wales assume local authority after the voters approved Devolution referenda for local autonomy.
Currently devolution is bubbling away in Belgium and Catalonia at least, as well as Northern Italy. What's going on in Greece may come to the fore soonest, but it won't be alone.
The list goes on, but you get the point: the story of Europe has been not the showy centralization of the EU and the Euro, but rather the weakening of the Westphalian Nation State. Actually the Swiss have shown the viability of the post-war Europe under the Pax America/End Of History period - without an external enemy, central authority loses much of its allure.
And so to these shores. Perhaps we should speak of "devolution" rather than "secession", following the Progressive's advice of being more like Europe. Obama and company are indeed engaged in a grand centralizing experiment is the EU style, but without better chances of success. Already we hear of States talking about reining in the TSA, or voiding Federal firearms laws. We see perhaps a majority rejecting Obamacare's mandate for health care exchanges.
Even more - as Obama's wing of the Democratic Party ratchets up Class Warfare to a peak never seen before on these shores, at what point does serious Devolution become a real possibility? Secession, we are told, is illegal (despite the certainty that the Constitution would never have been ratified without States thinking they could leave if they wanted to). It is illegal, because Mr. Lincoln was willing to see 10% of the military age male population killed or wounded. It is illegal because of force majeure.
But isn't that what Obama is ending, the Pax Americana imposed on a world through American force of arms? It's hard to see that Mr. Obama's party would have the will (let alone the support) to force a group of States back into the Union. After the likely massive Defense cuts coming in sequestration and the Fiscal Cliff, he wouldn't have the capability, anyway.
And so, it may be possible that Obama's class warfare driven grand centralizing design has the effect of splintering the Union and entirely removing the American stabilizing influence that has allowed Europe to sleep undisturbed, dreaming end of history dreams. As American power recedes from that unhappy continent, the forces of devolution will continue there and here. There, we can expect fragmentation to lead to bloodshed (as it always has).
Here bloodshed is less likely, because Americans have always been more practical that Europeans.
So will this happen? Who knows? Probably not - we saw the Left talking secession in 2004, and the Right talking it now. I do expect to see a lot of States increasingly give Washington DC the finger, to general approbation. Interesting times, this End Of History.