Stick a fork in Slow Joe - he's done
Sure, the polls show Joe ahead by 5000%, but let's look at the evidence. It doesn't support poll results showing Joe winning; on the contrary:
- Republican enthusiasm is off the chart. There are something like 2 Million volunteers knocking on doors and calling on the phone. They've contacted 100 Million voters. It doesn't look like there are any Democrats doing this. By way of comparison, a little over 60M voted for Trump in 2016 - now there is a measurable fraction of that working for his campaign.
- Biden gives rallies to a dozen people. Trump gives rallies to tens of thousands. Even more importantly, a big fraction of the people in the audience are not Republicans, and a big fraction didn't vote last time. Now they're standing in line to hear The Donald.
- We see "Trump Trains" all over the country - parades of thousands of cars flying Trump flags. We see them in historically Democrat strongholds: 30,000 cars paraded in "deep blue" Miami.
- Trump's outreach to the black and hispanic communities has paid off. His support is a lot higher than 4 years ago - maybe two or three times as high.
- Trump's job approval rating is over 50%. I can't remember any president with a 50% approval rating losing reelection, ever.
- What I find most interesting is the Gallup poll showing that a majority of people expect Trump to be reelected.