Friday, October 16, 2020

How much voting fraud do the Democrats need for Biden to win?

 This is speculation on my part, based on my model showing Trump winning 355 Electoral Votes and 36 or so States next month.  It basically takes the percentage of votes won by Hillary and Trump in 2016 and makes the following adjustments:

Incumbency benefit: +1% to Trump
Minority voter outreach: +1% to Trump
Biden dementia concerns: +1% to Trump
Voter enthusiasm: +1% to Trump
Riots/view of Democrats: +1% to Trump
Virus lockdown: +1% to Biden

This give us a net 4% added to Trump's 2016 votes.

Now 2016 was won in the Battleground States, and this year will be no different.  And so this is very interesting (via Don Surber):

If we want to quantify the amount of voter fraud the Democrats will have to engage in, we need to add +4 to that middle column (Actual 2016 Result).  Breaking it down, we see the following minimum fraudulent ballots needed:

Michigan +5%
Pennsylvania: + 5%
Wisconsin: +6%

So I went and looked at what the percentages translated into in terms of actual ballots cast.  Here's what's needed:

Michigan: 113, 442
Pennsylvania: 146,322
Wisconsin: 82,952

Total: 342,716

Note that this is net new fraud, on top of whatever was done in 2016.  And this is the best case scenario - there's no margin of error at all for Team Biden here, and so it really needs to be 500,000.  

It also looks to me (based on my model) that Trump will pick up States that he lost last time, particularly Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Colorado.  Fraud will need to be spread around here to keep the votes from swinging in the "wrong" direction.  That's a lot of States, and some of them are pretty big, so in round numbers let's call it another 500,000.

So Team Biden will need a million fraudulently cast ballots to win.  That's quite a lot to keep secret.  This isn't onesy-twosie fraud, this is industrial scale.  I simply don't think this can be covered up.  A million is a big number, and will require thousands of people to be in on the scam.  The old saying applies: three people can keep a secret if two of them are dead.


Aaron said...

The margin for Trump in Michigan in 2016 was only 10,704 votes.

Democrat-dominated Detroit alone has 36,570 more "registered voters" on their rolls than actual voters - with the same results as 20156 they only need about a tenth of the amount you estimate to take it by fraud.

Glen Filthie said...

Hey BP, do you think the antics of Biden and his crackhead son and the Ukrainian Caper will throw any votes at the Bad Orange Man?

looper said...

400k ballots in California, 250k ballots in Ohio, They add up quick !

Rick C said...

California can fake a million votes. It won't make any difference.

danielbarger said...

How much cheating will the Demonrats do to insure Trump loses?

AS MUCH AS IT TAKES! And their media whore accomplices will
aid and abet that cheating. This isn't rocket science. The
left has only ONE RULE. WIN! And ANYTHING that serves that
agenda is acceptable to them. Expect vote fraud, cheating and
lying on a scale almost beyond imagination.

McChuck said...

Democrats don't care if they're caught cheating. Nothing substantial ever happens to them. Especially if they win. Industrial scale cheating is the playbook this year - why do you think the WuFlu lockdowns are still in place?

In Ohio, Columbus alone already has 50,000 "incorrect" mail-in ballots sent out to voters. now they are sending them corrected ballots. So that is 50,000 duplicate ballots in one moderately blue city in a red state.

Borepatch said...

Rick C, California is irrelevant. Biden is going to win their electoral votes no matter what. Cheating there won't add a single EV to Biden's column. The battle is in the Battleground states.

McChuck, I can't argue - my point here was that this won't be able to be covered up. The scale of the fraud will be clear. The question is what will happen after that all comes out?

Me, I think that the Democrats combine corruption and incompetence in equal measure, and that Trump will win anyway AND the massive corruption will be exposed. Not sure what happens next, but Trump sets things up so that he wins however they play out.

Old NFO said...

EIther way, it's going to get 'interesting' on the 4th... Especially in those states that have extra days to count the 'mail in' ballots!

The Freeholder said...

They'll "discover" as many as they need, where they need them. And they will not care what anyone says, because they "know" that the media will keep them off the hook.

I've been telling people who visit our local Republican Party HQ, where I'm working, that we not only need to out vote the big metro areas, but we need to out vote the cheating-in other words, win so big on election night that even the dimmest of the "mildly involved in what goes on around them" will be angry when the real cheating starts. Whether or not that can be done remains an open question.

Richard said...

A million is a lot to coverup but they don't care if it is open. Both the masks and gloves are off.

Etaoin Shrdlu said...

In tune with some of the other commenters, the Dems just don't care whether they can successfully cover up or keep secret. They will try to nakedly gin up however many votes they think they can, because that is what they really truly are like. As long as the people at large are apathetic, and too many of the Republican leaders are just fine with bending over and taking it again, with only token protests to maintain their virtue, then it goes on. Trump has many flaws, but he doesn't do that. God bless him. For the country, our country.

LSP said...

Nice model and I hope and feel you're right. But I'm also with NFO, interesting on the 4th.