Why the polls are wrong, part CCXIII

 The polls show a tight election race.  It won't be close I still stand by my prediction that Donald Trump will get 354 electoral votes to easily win the White House.  The argument is that polling at this point is driven by the organizations that are funding the pollsters, so there's a lot of Democratic Party cash flowing and the pollsters take the attitude that the customer is always right.  This statement is testable - as we get within 2 weeks of the election the polls should swing to a Trump lead as the pollsters shift focus from cash intake to a desire to be close to the actual results (to maintain their reputations).  We'll see in a month.

But there's also a lot of evidence of a Trump lead all over the place, if you look.  Here are a set of links and data points for your consideration - all of which point to support for Trump.  None of them make you think that the polls show Biden to be ahead.

Item the first: here in Sunny west coast Florida the TV airways are bombarded daily with dozens of adverts for Joe Biden.  I think I've only seen *one* ad for Trump in the last 3 months.  Now, we live in deep red Trump country, but you'd think if Trump were tied with Slow Joe that you'd see a more aggressive advertising schedule.  You don't.

Item the Second: Linda Fox (writing at Bastion of Liberty) points out that people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 look like they're going to vote for him this time:

How have ordinary citizens reacted [to Trump's achievements since 2017]?

With support. With a willingness to consider voting for him. With increasingly suspicious of media 'narratives' (which will come in HUGELY when the inevitable October 'surprise' is released). With lessened hostility.

The tepid and sparse crowds for Joe Biden are a reflection of his weak appeal (as well as disinclination to vote for an obviously addled candidate).

Harris was a surprise to me. I didn't really like her, but I thought others might.

Surprise, surprise. People DON'T warm up to her. She looks like a lightweight, who got their the old-fashioned Leftist way - on her knees.

Even my husband, a man with an eye for hot women, and a reliable Dem vote, doesn't like her - at all.

Black men don't like her. At least, the ones I've talked to.

The Democrats say that people don't like Donald Trump but they don't seem to recognize that this applies to their candidates as well.

Item the Third: People are sick of the riots and want a crack down on rioters:

The post about the [Florida Legislature's] future bill to deal with rioters is getting all the attention while other posts are getting the usual amount of traffic, And I am going to opine that the reason is not because I am cute or popular or even know how to write pretty. The reason is simple: People are sick of protests and somehow the post reflected what they were feeling and they shared their frustration among their friends with links to the post. It became a lightning rod.

Look again at the screen cap: That is over 400,000 pissed off people who agreed on a set of measures aimed at the stupid dancing the Democrats have been supporting for the past months,

Miguel - don't sell yourself short: of course you're cute and popular.  But you hit the nail on the head.  Boy, howdy.

Item the Fourth: Republicans have basically eliminated the Democrat's advantage in voter registration in Florida.  Remember, this is supposed to be a "battleground" State, and it's probably not possible for Biden to win if he loses here.  But the Democrat's 300,000+ advantage in registered voters here is basically gone.  And this is a very telling data point from someone who is paid to pay very close attention:

Ryan Tyson, a Republican pollster and strategist, said that an electorate with more Republicans could have an effect on polls, some of which model a far-higher Democratic voter base than exists and therefore run the risk of making Trump appear to be farther behind Biden. In an analysis, Tyson's data analytics team found that 119,000 more Democratic voters have switched their registration to Republican or independent than Republicans Party switchers since 2016.

“When we manage to get 57,000 new registrants in a month, It’s historic. And a lot of that is just organic,” he said. “Something’s in the water and with 41 days out of the election, we find ourselves beating the Democrats at their own game.”

I added the key emphasis in the quoted text.  The Democrats are bleeding voters - and for every voter who is so fed up that they go to the Town Office and change their registration, there are more who don't bother - but who will vote for Trump and down ticket Republicans.  Who can say how many, but this is a very, very bad sign for the Democrats.  This is hard data backing up Linda Fox' and Miguel's commentary.

Item the Fifth: Back up at Castle Borepatch (located in deep blue Maryland) we saw lots of Trump signs.  There was hardly a Biden sign to be found.  Now this was back in May but by then everybody knew that Joe was going to be the nominee, and you would have expected to see yard signs going up outside the doors of the Democratic Party faithful.  You didn't.  As Spinal Tap might have said, it looks like Joe's appeal is getting more selective.