So the Democrats have had their shot, and it looks like a wet firecracker. This is the high water mark for Joe Biden, and it will all be down hill from today. Quite frankly things look grim for Biden/Harris. So the question isn't whether Slow Joe will lose, but by how much. Here's my prediction:
This map has the wrong counts for some of the State electoral votes; both Trump and Biden will get an additional EV that the map didn't correctly count (there are 538 electoral votes).
Here's how I arrived at this result: I started with the State-by-State vote percentages that Clinton and Trump got. Then I applied the following adjustments:
- +1% to Trump because he's the incumbent. This is probably low.
- +1% to Trump for his outreach to Blacks and Hispanics.
- +1% to Trump because of concerns about Biden's mental health.
- +1% to Trump because of high GOP voter enthusiasm and low Democrat voter enthusiasm. This is probably low.
- +1% to Trump because of the riots and the Democratic Mayors' response to it. This is terrible branding for the Democrats. The Queen Of The World suggested this voter reaction to the riots. She's absolutely right that the Democratic Party has shot itself in the foot here.
- -1% from Trump because of the virus and the economic damage of the lockdown. This is unfair, but the buck stops at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.