Thursday, September 24, 2020

Why the polls are wrong, part CCXIII

 The polls show a tight election race.  It won't be close I still stand by my prediction that Donald Trump will get 354 electoral votes to easily win the White House.  The argument is that polling at this point is driven by the organizations that are funding the pollsters, so there's a lot of Democratic Party cash flowing and the pollsters take the attitude that the customer is always right.  This statement is testable - as we get within 2 weeks of the election the polls should swing to a Trump lead as the pollsters shift focus from cash intake to a desire to be close to the actual results (to maintain their reputations).  We'll see in a month.

But there's also a lot of evidence of a Trump lead all over the place, if you look.  Here are a set of links and data points for your consideration - all of which point to support for Trump.  None of them make you think that the polls show Biden to be ahead.

Item the first: here in Sunny west coast Florida the TV airways are bombarded daily with dozens of adverts for Joe Biden.  I think I've only seen *one* ad for Trump in the last 3 months.  Now, we live in deep red Trump country, but you'd think if Trump were tied with Slow Joe that you'd see a more aggressive advertising schedule.  You don't.

Item the Second: Linda Fox (writing at Bastion of Liberty) points out that people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 look like they're going to vote for him this time:

How have ordinary citizens reacted [to Trump's achievements since 2017]?

With support. With a willingness to consider voting for him. With increasingly suspicious of media 'narratives' (which will come in HUGELY when the inevitable October 'surprise' is released). With lessened hostility.

The tepid and sparse crowds for Joe Biden are a reflection of his weak appeal (as well as disinclination to vote for an obviously addled candidate).

Harris was a surprise to me. I didn't really like her, but I thought others might.

Surprise, surprise. People DON'T warm up to her. She looks like a lightweight, who got their the old-fashioned Leftist way - on her knees.

Even my husband, a man with an eye for hot women, and a reliable Dem vote, doesn't like her - at all.

Black men don't like her. At least, the ones I've talked to.

The Democrats say that people don't like Donald Trump but they don't seem to recognize that this applies to their candidates as well.

Item the Third: People are sick of the riots and want a crack down on rioters:

The post about the [Florida Legislature's] future bill to deal with rioters is getting all the attention while other posts are getting the usual amount of traffic, And I am going to opine that the reason is not because I am cute or popular or even know how to write pretty. The reason is simple: People are sick of protests and somehow the post reflected what they were feeling and they shared their frustration among their friends with links to the post. It became a lightning rod.

Look again at the screen cap: That is over 400,000 pissed off people who agreed on a set of measures aimed at the stupid dancing the Democrats have been supporting for the past months,

Miguel - don't sell yourself short: of course you're cute and popular.  But you hit the nail on the head.  Boy, howdy.

Item the Fourth: Republicans have basically eliminated the Democrat's advantage in voter registration in Florida.  Remember, this is supposed to be a "battleground" State, and it's probably not possible for Biden to win if he loses here.  But the Democrat's 300,000+ advantage in registered voters here is basically gone.  And this is a very telling data point from someone who is paid to pay very close attention:

Ryan Tyson, a Republican pollster and strategist, said that an electorate with more Republicans could have an effect on polls, some of which model a far-higher Democratic voter base than exists and therefore run the risk of making Trump appear to be farther behind Biden. In an analysis, Tyson's data analytics team found that 119,000 more Democratic voters have switched their registration to Republican or independent than Republicans Party switchers since 2016.

“When we manage to get 57,000 new registrants in a month, It’s historic. And a lot of that is just organic,” he said. “Something’s in the water and with 41 days out of the election, we find ourselves beating the Democrats at their own game.”

I added the key emphasis in the quoted text.  The Democrats are bleeding voters - and for every voter who is so fed up that they go to the Town Office and change their registration, there are more who don't bother - but who will vote for Trump and down ticket Republicans.  Who can say how many, but this is a very, very bad sign for the Democrats.  This is hard data backing up Linda Fox' and Miguel's commentary.

Item the Fifth: Back up at Castle Borepatch (located in deep blue Maryland) we saw lots of Trump signs.  There was hardly a Biden sign to be found.  Now this was back in May but by then everybody knew that Joe was going to be the nominee, and you would have expected to see yard signs going up outside the doors of the Democratic Party faithful.  You didn't.  As Spinal Tap might have said, it looks like Joe's appeal is getting more selective.


Etaoin Shrdlu said...

Good stuff. I'm going to suggest that when voters get outraged enough to change their party affilition, many of them don't change back, ever.
As a young just-out-of-college ignoramus I voted Dem, for McGovern and then Jimmuh Cahtah. I was so put off by his bumbling ineffectiveness, not to mention his sleazoid lefty associates that I voted for Reagan, began to educate myself politically, and never looked back. To be fully honest, I made a conscious pledge to myself never, ever, ever again vote for any Democrat for any office.
I don't believe I am the only person to do something like this, or that it is uncommon.

Old NFO said...

Don't disagree at all!

MagisterGreen said...

Can confirm that, here in the People's Republic of Montgomery County, MD, I've seen a grand total of 3 new Biden/Harris signs pop up in the last month on a route I drive daily. Before that I hadn't seen any. And bumper stickers are nonexistent for Biden, while one still sees the odd Hillary or Bernie sticker.

MrGarabaldi said...

Hey Borepatch;

My county is a blue county but you can't tell for all the Trump signs everywhere . there is excitement for him that there ain't for "Gropy Joe".

Ponyexpress said...

I recently went on vacation and drove across Minnesota. This is a notorious blue state and along I-35 I saw 8-10 Trump signs and flags and not a single Biden sign.

Beans said...

Trump will need all those extra votes to fight the widespread voter-fraud that's already starting.

Richard said...

You can't poll dead people, not to mention dead cats or people who never existed. But they can and will vote in very large numbers. Getting in the weeds about polling, distracts from the main problem.

Ken said...

Lot of Biden signs in my neighborhood, but then it's Cuyahoga County (a tony suburb of Cleveland, many elderly residents and a fair portion of guilt-ridden virtue signalers).

Jonathan H said...

I have been in 9 states in the last 2 months, driven several thousand miles. I have seen a total of 2 Biden signs, both in rural Ohio - and both were standard small yard signs. I haven't tried to count how many Trump signs I've seen, and MANY of them are BIG, not including the 10 foot flags I've seen in numerous places.
I spent a weekend in Northern Virginia, very wealthy areas - and I didn't see a single Biden sign.
I think the lack of enthusiasm, and in some cases outright distaste, is going to hurt Dem turnout. It reminds me of Mitt Romney in 2012, I see it as probably worse than McCain in 2008. I wonder if Biden's handlers were hoping for a bounce from picking Harris like McCain's bounce for picking Palin - if so, they didn't get it...

The Freeholder said...

I'm working in the local county Republican Party in a county that is so Red it's almost a caricature of such things. I expect to see us go (R) in a big way this year. Heck, the Dems didn't even open a location in the county this time around.

The enthusiasm of voters this time reminds me of Regan's second run for the White House. We have people in every day, changing party affiliation or registering to vote for the first time. I registered a lady who was 72 and has never voted in her life. Another worker registered a lady who was, and I'm not kidding, 98 years young and who has never voted.

We are having a difficult time keeping Trump yard signs in stock. We have sold Trump flags on a scale that makes me marvel. Even I,the Gray Man, have a Trump bumper sticker on my pickup.

I have yet to talk to anyone in my circle of friends or acquaintances who will admit they're going to vote Democrat. That's good, because I'm pretty sure I winnowed all those undesirables out of the circle and I'd hate to lose any more.

This election will buy us more time to prepare, and we need to win it big, so that no matter how the Democrats cheat, they loose.

Survivormann99 said...

I live in SoCal, on the fringe of the LA Metropolitan area.

In my town of 100,000+ there were numerous Hillary yard signs in 2016. I saw no Trump sign other than my own. Hillary won, but not by a large margin.

This year, although I haven't seen Trump yard signs, I have seen only one Biden sign. I have seen more pickup trucks flying American and Trump flags than "you can shake a stick at."

There are still so many whack job Libs that I expect that many secret Trump supporters, like me, are simply not wanting to invite vandalism from the looney Left.

My neighbor keeps a Trump flag at the entrance to his garage and it is very visible when the door is open. He can close the garage door at night, and, "Poof!" it's gone. Flags on trucks can simply be removed at night.

I have a brother who lives about 30 miles from Tampa. He reported that on a Saturday a couple of weeks ago, he saw about 165 Trump signs, about 60 yard sale signs, and about 35 Biden signs.

My personal estimate is that no matter what the polls say, add 5%, and perhaps much more, for Trump.

JohnnyL said...

I drove cross country from Connecticut to Oregon at the beginning of September. NY, NJ, PA, MD, WV, VA, TN,KY,IL, MO, KS,CO,NV, UT,CA, OR. When we saw a sign from the Interstate it as a Trump sign. Not a single Biden sign that whole way. Not one.

Unknown said...

Regarding the Trump signs all over Maryland, back in 2016 I noticed the same thing, as I was living on the east coast at the time and visiting my brother who lives south of Baltimore. He assured me this meant nothing, and obviously he was proved right in November when Hillary Clinton won by a landslide -- oh wait, no, that is not how it worked. He is still seething with anger over what happened and gets madder every day as even he now thinks Trump will be reelected.
He worked for NASA and has a PhD in astrophysics so he is even more arrogant than the typical liberal, he honestly thinks everyone is stupid. It's amazing to me how many people still refuse to see how the Democrat party has become the party of rich foreign oligarchs and billionaire global corporate hacks, whose only concern for the working men and women of this country happens around election day get out the vote efforts.

BIGGUY said...

We drove from Youngstown OH to Altoona Pa on RT422. it was a sea of TRUMP signs in Pa. We counted 6 Biden signs in a 35-mile stretch. There sure was not a lot of support for Sleepy Joe. There were 6 places alongside the road selling TRUMP signs, flags, hats, and stuff. It was packed at all of them.

Sam L. said...

Nobody's ever polled me, and I see the media as the the biggest liars in the world.