The security folks at SANS have a post measuring the average time for a new, unpatched Windows computer to get hacked once it's been put on the Internet.
4 minutes.
There's some discussion at Slashdot about how this may be too low, and that the real time is more like 16 hours, but it's still not a lot.
As Dave LeBlanc likes to say, "Boot it, and they will come."
NAT firewalls cut out the easy attacks. Being sensible with how you browse is always a good idea, too.
Of course, it's different if you're a hobbyist:
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