It seems that prophesies of the Civil War are the new hotness. My, I'm skeptical that anything other than huffing and puffing will come from the latest gun control insanity, but OK, I'll play too.
By way of introduction, Graybeard sums up a lot of the current thinking.
Here's where the scenarios break down. Gun control is only popular is limited areas: coastal urban zones, the cultural "elite" (scare quotes entirely intended), college towns. Everywhere else they're non-starters. Really non-starters. Like never gonna happen non-starters.
Does this mean that the cultural "elite" won't push for it with every fiber of their being and every breath until their dieing day? Not at all - they want the "non-elite" disarmed as a matter of course. Congress doesn't have the cojones to do anything (as I've said before), but let's do a Thought Experiment. Suppose the Powers That be ram it down the Republic's throat, either via Constitutional or extra-Constitutional means? What then?
Well, remember that this Republic is made up of 50 States. In maybe 40 of those States, the new way of doing things will be really unpopular (follow the link to see just how unpopular). What do the Governors of those 40 States do?
I think that they tell Washington D.C. to get bent, sideways, with a rusty nail. If push comes to shove, I could see Governors take over military bases within their State - with the full approval and cooperation of most of the military personnel stationed there, I might add. If (say) Obama unilaterally banned semi-automatic weapons and implemented a confiscation scheme, I'd expect (say) Texas Governor Perry to tell him not to send Federal Agents to Texas to implement the policy. If Obama did, I could see Perry send the Texas National Guard to take over Ft. Hood, Ft. Sam Houston, Lackland Airforce Base, etc. I'd be shocked if the military personnel there refused his deputization as Texas National Guardsmen.
Add in the Dakotas (goodbye, SAC), Virginia and Washington state (Navy), Georgia (Ft. Benning), Kentucky (Ft. Knox, HQ of the Armor) and you see that the States would be reasonably likely to thwart the over-reaching Federal power gram.
Precisely as the Founders foresaw, and crafted the Constitution.
I don't think this will be a Threeper moment, in any possible scenario. Extra-Constitutional Washington power grabs will be unpopular most places, and Governors will be incentivized to stick it to The Man. The police and military will support the Governors. All you need is one to draw a line in the sand, and the cultural "elite" will fold for lack of the muscle to back it up. And a street mob won't be effective against the police and military, and will only galvanize the unorganized militia to stand with them.
Like I said, this scenario simply won't happen. Constitutionally, the Congress won't vote for it and extra-Constitutionally the States will reject it.
So while this is all fun, everyone needs to take a deep breath or two. A New Year starts again tomorrow. Next year will be much like this year. We won't see the gun banners get traction, and in a couple months we'll have the pleasure of seeing their heads come off in frustration that their so-called Democrat "allies" were just yanking their chains and mugging for the TV News. It's a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury. Ultimately it signifies nothing.
Me, I'm long on kitten and sunshine futures, at least for gun rights. Happy New Year, everyone!