Thursday, October 8, 2015

Climate models run provably hot

Burt emails to point out this:
A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.
A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.
He has found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.
He has fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.
People have been saying this for years and years.  What's different is that Dr. Evans has demonstrated this mathematically.
“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”.
And this actually sounds reasonable.  This means that the projected warming of up to 4°C in the 21st Century would actually be up to 0.4°C which maps pretty well to what we saw in the 20th Century.

Of course, Dr. Evans will never get another research grant, because he's fixin' to upset all the sweet, sweet government funding.  And he won't get tenure because he won't get any grants.  But well done on doing some actual, you know, science.

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