Don't listen to "Studies" of gun crime

AWA over at Gunfreezone posts about a new study showing that increased Concealed Weapon permitting leads to increased gun crime:

Concealed-carry laws boost gun crime by a third, study finds

A new study finds concealed-carry laws lead to a boost in gun crime by between 29% and 32%, mostly by triggering a surge in gun theft.

The study comes on the heels of a Supreme Court ruling that struck down New York’s attempt to limit the ability to carry a gun outside their homes. That ruling was seen as particularly significant as other states have sought to restrict concealed-carry permits.

Oh, it isn’t people being shot. It is guns being stolen.

He recommends clicking through to read the whole thing. I don't. I've seen enough studies about gun control.  As the old saying goes, if you torture the data enough it will confess to anything.

Many years ago, Eric Raymond wrote a detailed post about how the gun control study sausage is made.  It was brutal, and is a must-read for everyone in our community.  He gives example after example of malfeasance in the academic literature, from "Arming America" which made up its data to the AMA "43 times more likely to die from a gun" that refused to release their data.  Go RTWT, but this sums up the top dirty tricks that they use:

I described the errors as “systematic” before the jump because there is a pattern of distortions in the anti-gun literature that have been repeated over decades even though they violate known good practice in the social and medical sciences. These include but are not limited to:

Failure to control for socioeconomic differences between star and control groups, even when the differences are known to correlate with large differences in per-capita rates of criminal deviance

Choice of study periods that ignore well-documented trends that run contrary to the study’s conclusions immediately before or after the period.

Selective use of suicide statistics, counting them only in star but not control groups and/or ignoring massive evidence that would-be suicides rapidly substitute other methods when firearms are not available.

Tendentious misapplication of Uniform Crime Report data, for example by ignoring the fact that UCR reports of homicides are entered before trial and therefore fail to account for an unknown but significant percentage of findings of misadventure and lawful self-defense.

And I described this pattern as “fraud” before the jump because the magnitude of these errors would be too great and their direction too consistent for honest error, even if we did not in several prominent cases have direct evidence that the fraud must have been intended.

My guess is that the new study falls into the second of his categories (selective choice of study periods) at the very least, and probably the misapplication of UCR data.  Quite frankly, the last 20 years simply do not show any obvious corollary of relaxed CCW laws and crime - or they show a corrolation between relaxed CCW laws and lower crime.  A 30% increase is simply not what I've seen at all.  My suspicion is that the data were tortured for a long time before they confessed to this.

Tagged "Junk Science" because, well, you know.

Dad joke CCXV - special BBQ edition

What kind of grill does a spider BBQ on?

A Weber.

Pulled Pork AAR

So yesterday I smoked a pork butt.  It came out really well but I thought I'd follow up.

One weirdness was the probe thermometer seemed to get stuck at 133 degrees.  After an hour without any increase in temperature I got the meat thermometer which showed 145 - 150.  So I finished using that which meant a lot of opening the grill.

Another weirdness was that the temperature stopped going up after 6 or 7 hours.  This may have been because the weather clouded over and the outside temperature dropped.  I double wrapped the pork in foil and finished it in the oven at 300 degrees.

It had a nice dark bark which was nicely but not overly smoky.  It was nice and juicy (thank you, Mr. Brine!).  I now have a bunch of containers that are in the freezer.  All in all, it was a good experience.  You would only do it on a lazy summer day when you have 8 hours to mess around with things, but it was as good BBQ as I've had down here in Florida.  Winning!

Want a smoke?

No, not tobacco (or something more potent), I'm smoking a Boston butt on my gas grill.  I'm using something like this:

 

Napoleon 67011 Stainless Steel Smoker Pipe.  It looks like there are plenty of options, but I have wood chips and a lot of the tubes are for pellets.  Might work the same, I don't know.  So far things look like they're going pretty well, but the proof of the pudding and all that.  Here are the key points for smoking on a gas grill:

1. Start normally, with a good soak in a brine.  I did 24 hours.  There are a million brine recipes - the one I had uses Sprite instead of water.  And then a good rub.

2. Only one of my four burners is on, and it's down around it's lowest setting.  I took the grates off so that I can swap the smoker tubes - when one has given its all for King and Country I swap in the other which is loaded with fresh wood chips.

3. Soak the wood chips.  Dry chips are gone in 10 minutes in a huge cloud of smoke; soaked chips last 45 minutes with wisps of smoke surrounding the meat the entire time.

4. Indirect heat, baby.  I have the far left burner on with the smoker tube on it, the butt is over on the far right hand side of the grill.

5. 250 degrees is the magic number for the grill thermometer.  Remember, that thermometer isn't very accurate, which leads us to the next item:

6. A probe thermometer will tell you when you're ready to pull the meat off.  I still have an hour or two to go, but the grill is steady at 250 and you can smell (but not see) smoke.  That's what you want.

7. Don't keep opening the grill.  As they say, if you're lookin' you;re not cookin'.

We'll see how this comes out, but it's been pretty straight forward so far.

14 years around the sun

Today is our 14th blogiversary.

It's a bit odd to still be blogging - most folks have moved on to other, more modern platforms.  Some have hung it up, like Miguel.  Others don't post much, or about anything of note - Not Clauswitz only posts about the weather.

I can't say that I blame them.  Say Uncle used to say that he did this for him, not for you.  It's a good rule but I can understand the feeling that you've said pretty much everything you have to say, twice.

The Queen Of The World has helped - it was her idea to post Dad Jokes which has lightened the mood here.  She also suggested movie soundtracks on Sunday when I was quite simply running out of ideas for what classical music to post.  She's not just a pretty face, she's pretty smart and creative.

Quite frankly, it's hard to keep the creativity up year in and year out, so I'm thankful for all the help I get from her.  And I'm grateful to co-blogger ASM826 who's been helping out here for eight years now.

14 years, 13316 posts, 49483 comments, 11,355,369 views - it's been quite a ride.  I'm very grateful for all of you who stop by.  As a thank you to our regular readers, all blog content will be 100% free of charge today!

So why is Joe Biden so under water in the polls?

Russia -

The world’s largest exporter of wheat.

The world’s largest exporter of fertilizer.

The world’s largest exporter of natural gas.

The world’s second largest exporter of oil.

America -

The world’s largest exporter of LGBTQ+.

— RAMZPAUL (@ramzpaul) June 16, 2022

 

It's a real mystery,that's for sure.

Hat tip: Don Surber.

Things that make you go "Hmmm"

From the comments over at Althouse, there's an assertion that the reason that the SCOTUS took ten years to take a Second Amendment case was that Roberts told everybody that if they took a case he would vote against it.  Then Trump appointed Barrett and instead of a 5-4 court it was 6-3 and he lost his veto.

No citations are offered up, but it's an interesting idea.  The implications are important if this is true - Thomas had his 75th birthday yesterday so we can expect maybe five more years from him.  Given the questionable state of Presidential (at least) elections, that may be all the time we have.

Then again, maybe this is just another chemtrails theory.

In praise of Mitch McConnell

No, really.

Long time readers will know that I don't have much use for Mitch.  But it is unlikely that today's gun control win - one that drives a stake in "May Issue" licensing - would have happened if he hadn't put Merick Garland's SCOTUS nomination on hold in 2015.  Today's 6-3 majority would have at a minimum been 5-4, and the case very well might never have made it to SCOTUS because the justices can also count votes.  This might not have been seen by the conservatives on the court as the hill to die on.

Yes, the GOP turn coats will see a new gun control bill passed, thanks to Mitch.  But today is without a doubt two steps forward, one step back.

Astute readers will see this as forward progress. 

UPDATE 23 JUNE 2022 14:25:  David Koppel thinks this ruling is a big deal, and doesn't seem very worried about the new gun control bill.  I hope he's right.  Clayton Cramer looks into his crystal ball and predicts how the new bill will play out.  I expect a lot of litigation on the vague parts, and suspect that Congress knows that most of this will be struck down but wants to be seen as "doing something".  Whatevs.

And quote of the day goes to Sebastian:

Long term it’s probably best not to rely on the Courts for protection. Just ask Planned Parenthood how well that’s working out for them. But we can use these reprieves to help repair the gun culture in these jurisdictions if the restrictions lighten things up a little. This is not over. There will never be a death blow to the desire of the nobility to control the serfs. Nonetheless we should use the circumstances presented to us for maximal advantage.

UPDATE 23 JUNE 2022 15:24: I haven't been feeling well, but that's no excuse for not pointing out that the hat tip to the article came in from Dwight via email. He's your go-to guy for obituaries and it sounds like more than a couple of The Usual Suspects will have aneurysms from this.

UPDATE 23 JUNE 2022 16:52: Carl Bussjaeger has a long post analyzing why this is likely a much bigger win for our community than many realize.  He seems to think that this may gut (or at least hobble) "Red Flag" laws.

Softness to traitors

Softness to traitors will destroy us all.

- Maximilian Robespierre

Texas GOP Senator Cornyn, leader of the Republicans playing Gun Control footsie with the Democrats, gets booed by Republicans at the Texas GOP convention.  And not just a couple of Boo birds, but a solid minute and a half before his speech.  It seems that the good Senator was surprised by the response.

Smartest kid in class, right there [rolls eyes].  Maybe he should have read Shakespeare.

But cruel are the times, when we are traitors,
And do not know ourselves; when we hold rumor
From what we fear, yet know not what we fear,

But float upon a wild and violent sea
Each way and none

- William Shakespeare, Macbeth

Dad Joke CCXIV

What is the best dressed fish?

The swordfish.  It always looks sharp. 

The Left Arm of God has a statue

Sandy Koufax was called "The Left Arm of God" because he was simply unhittable.  In four incredible seasons between 1963 and 1966 he won the Cy Young award every year, won 25 games in three of those seasons, and was World Series MVP.  The last season say him win 27 with a nifty 1.73 ERA and 27 complete games (!!!!).

He finished his career at age 30, with his arm blown out.  But even not able to pitch like he still clocked a career ERA of 2.76 and a 165-87.  His premature retirement from overwork is the poster child for the pitcher abuse that was the standard back in those days.  Typically a pitcher needs to have 300 wins to get voted into the Hall of Fame; the fact that Koufax was inducted with half of this shows just how dominant her was.

But you almost never see a pitcher pitch a complete game today.  The reason for middle relief and closers can be found in his shortened career.

Over the weekend, the Dodgers unveiled a statue to him.  He's led a quiet life, shunning the limelight.  My first reaction was "Sandy Koufax is still alive?"  Yes indeed:

Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax has played an enormous role in Dodgers history. It would be easy to argue that he’s the best pitcher to ever wear Dodger Blue. His No. 32 was one of the first retired by the organization, along with Jackie Robinson’s No. 42 and Roy Campanella’s No. 39.

On Saturday, Koufax and his famous leg kick were forever immortalized at Dodger Stadium as he became the second player to get a statue in the center-field plaza. Koufax joined Robinson, who received the first statue in Dodger Stadium history back in 2015.

Bravo.

Happy Father's Day

Wolfgang got me a sweet rifle cleaning box/stand.  All my cleaning stuff fits nicely in it, and the carrying handle means I can take it to the range and clean the rifles after shooting them there.  And it's made in the USA.

It's a very nice relaxing day in Florida.  Hope you have one, too.

UPDATE 19 JUNE 2022 15:37:  Man, that Garand was filthy.  I used half a package of bore patches and now it's only a little dirty.  I've only put maybe 100 rounds through it, so it must have come dirty from CMP.  They didn't replace the barrel, so I suspect that there's some ROK soldier who got away from his last range day without cleaning it.

And I am shooting mil-surp .30-06, which could be dirty.  With this cleaning case/stand I don't have an excuse for not having a sparkling clean barrel.

The Queen Of The World brought out a bowl of warm Murphy's Oil Soap and it turns out that the stock was also filthy.  After a good scrub and some Liquid Gold, it shines good enough for a parade ground .

I guess I need to do the same on the Enfield now ...

And in answer to the questions in the comments, the box is made out of heavy duty plastic.  You would never shoot from this on the bench, but it looks like it would handle the WWII rifles, hunting rifles and shotguns, and ARs.  And since it's plastic it would catch any spills of Hoppe's or Ed's Red.  I didn't even unroll my cleaning mat.  

And all the cleaning stuff fits in the box when it's closed up.  Nifty.  I'm pretty darn happy with this.

Hank Williams Sr. and Hank Williams Jr. - There's a Tear in my Beer

Tomorrow is Father's Day, and there's no more famous father/son pair in Country Music than Hank Williams, Senior and Junior.  Senior died when Junior was a baby (there's an old photo of the two of them in the video, Senior with baby Junior sitting on his lap).

But the late 1980s was a time of emergent technology miracles, and this video is the highlight of the pre-digital editing age.  Keep in mind in today's age of "Deep Fakes" and special effects that the merging of old Hank Sr. footage with a modern day Junior was done without any computer graphics at all.  The Hank Sr. footage wasn't even of him singing this song - it was actually "Hey Good Looking", and an actor/singer recorded the new song and his mouth was superimposed on thew old footage.  This was cutting edge, a third of a century ago.

The song was pretty much a sensation - it was video of the year for both CMT and ACM, and Hank Jr. and Sr. shared a Grammy for best Country vocal collaboration.

I remember watching this when it came out, and how poignant it was - what might have been but never was.  

There's a Tear in my Beer (Songwriter: Hank Williams, Sr.)

There's a tear in my beer
'cause I'm cryin' for you, dear
you are on my lonely mind.
Into these last nine beers
I have shed a million tears.
You are on my lonely mind
I'm gonna keep drinkin'
until I'm petrified.
And then maybe these tears
will leave my eyes.
There's a tear in my beer
cause I'm crying' for you dear
You are on my lonely mind.

Last night I walked the floor
and the night before
You are on my lonely mind.
It seems my life is through
and I'm so doggone blue
You are on my lonely mind.
I'm gonna keep drinkin'
till I can't move a toe
and then maybe my heart
won't hurt me so.
There's a tear in my beer
cause I'm cryin' for you dear
You are on my lonely mind.

Lord, I've tried and I've tried
But my tears I can't hide
You are on my lonely mind.
All these blues that I've found
Have really got me down
You are on my lonely mind
I'm gonna keep drinkin' till I can't even think
Cause in the last week I ain't slept a wink
There's a tear in my beer
cause I'm crying for you dear
You are on my lonely mind.

Dad Joke CCXIII

 You know why dad can't plant flowers this weekend?

Because he hasn't botany.

Dad Joke CCXII

Why did the fungus move to a bigger location? 

Because he didn't have mushroom.

Quote of the Day - Boogaloo Edition

Your humble host and The Queen Of The World were discussing the "Father's Day Ammo Sales" that are floating around (to her in-box).  It sort of went like this:

Me: I just got a bunch of .380.  Why do we need more?

The Queen Of The World: We need to order a thousand rounds because when the Boogaloo hits, we'll need it!

She's right, you know.  And she is the wind beneath my wings.  Of course, this isn't the first time we've had this discussion ....

Cheap guns!

The Miami PoPo are doing a gun buy-back "to benefit Ukraine". [rolls eyes]

They're offering peanuts, in the form of gift cards. Smartest kids in class, right there.  [rolls eyes again]

If you're in that area and looking to score guns cheap, show up at Miami City Hall on Saturday at 10:00 AM.  If you offer twice as much in cash, I expect you'll get first pick.  Looking at the price they're offering, that'd be $300 for an AR.

Dad Joke CCXI

Where do Eskimos keep their money? 

In snow banks.

We know what Red Flag enforcement looks like

I've seen how this movie ends:

I've linked several times to posts over at the blog Dispatches from TJICistan.  TJIC is an outspoken (some might say extremely so) advocate of smaller government.  He's also a firearms owner in the People's Republic of Massachusetts.  While he owns guns, it appears that he's no longer allowed to possess any:

ARLINGTON (CBS) – A blog threatening members of Congress in the wake of the Tucson, Arizona shooting has prompted Arlington police to temporarily suspend the firearms license of an Arlington man. 

It was the headline “1 down and 534 to go” that caught the attention. “One” refers to Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was shot in the head in the rampage, while 534 refers to the other members of the U.S. House and Senate.

Police are investigating the “suitability” of 39-year-old Travis Corcoran to have a firearms license

Let's ignore for the moment how many people were investigated for making similar comments about George W. Bush.  Let's look at the "logic" being exercised by the Arlington Po-Po, shall we?

They claim that Corcoran is so dangerous that, while he has done nothing more than put up a blog post, he must be restrained from possessing firearms.  However, it appears that it's not worth it for the police to follow him, or stake out his place, or arrest him.

Huh?

Look, guys, if you think that his speech rises to the level of an actual threat of specific harm to specific persons, he should be in jail.  If you're not sure, then do the leg work to establish whether it is or not.

Ah, I was so young and optimistic, 11 years ago.  After all, we had ferocious conservative Republicans ferociously conserving things.  But even then it was clear where this would go:

It would be one thing if the law were applied equally to all.  It's not, and it will be applied disproportionately to us, because we hold views considered by some in power to be Double Plus Ungood.

Divemedic says the same, in fewer words.  He also has some suggestions on a strategy you can use.

Thanks to the GOP, we're all TJIC now.

There's a reason that they're called the "Stupid Party".  And there's a reason that the Democrats are called the "Evil Party".

Quote of the Day: Eye of Sauron edition

Tacitus muses on the algorithms that Google uses for suggesting new Youtube videos.  Unlike all the breathless stories about how "the AI is alive", he's not impressed.  He thinks he does a fair job of intentionally confusing the algorithms:

Back in the early days of the internet I used to salt my profiles with various fake information just to see if I would get ads in Portuguese, spam email from tailors in Denmark, stuff related to Icelandic scrimshaw art. The only entry on the above list that might still be carrying over would be the Bossa Nova music! I of course have all "notifications" turned to the OFF setting but another account in the household did not. Maybe that's where gardening came from.

But it seems to not matter. My efforts to punk the algorithms seem unnecessary, they autopunk themselves.