Coronavirus cases in the United States are doubling faster than in any other country and Americans need to reduce contact by 90% to stop the pandemic, a new report by a local nonprofit says.
“The rate of increase in domestic cases is now estimated to be in the range of 25 to 40% per day near to or eclipsing the alarming rates of case growth occurring in France and Italy,” the report titled “Stopping COVID-19: Short-Term Actions for Long-Term Impact” reads.
The report was written by the infectious disease analytics team from MITRE, a Bedford-based nonprofit.
Next, the death rate is dropping like a rock:
While coronavirus cases have increased in the past two weeks, the mortality rate has declined, pointed out veteran Fox News analyst Brit Hume.
He retweeted a day-by-day list of the number of cases reported compared to the number of deaths. It showed a drop in the mortality rate from 4.06% on March 8 to 1.84% on March 15.
You could rewrite both stories to say "Early statistics on Coronovirus infection and death rates in the US are crap. They're still crap, but at least 25% less crappy. In a couple more weeks we expect the crappiness to have been reduced by 75% from its peak."
As to infection rate, we've only been testing for a week or two at most. Of course the infection rate is going up, because instead of asking "Have y'all been to China" we're actually, you know, testing people now. Duh.
And I covered the death rate in some depth here, but this is the key bit:
The good news is that the data is getting better. It will keep getting better for a couple of weeks. At that point we can start extrapolating the data and making some predictions that won't be complete garbage. Until then, keep in mind that we really don't know what's going on right now.
- Reported death rates vary from a high of 3-4% to 1% to a low of 0.1%. Sure, we know the death count with some level of reliability, but since we don't have any idea about how many people contracted the virus, there's no good way to predict how bad (or less bad) things might be.