tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post4517318534305699129..comments2024-03-28T16:31:54.494-04:00Comments on Borepatch: Coronavirus stories that seem contradictory, but aren'tBorepatchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-39236916540143328732020-03-24T15:59:41.283-04:002020-03-24T15:59:41.283-04:00https://imgur.com/hz0W19P.jpghttps://imgur.com/hz0W19P.jpgAesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-48949024296339577562020-03-23T00:37:06.828-04:002020-03-23T00:37:06.828-04:00"... it'd be nice to think the Chinese de..."... it'd be nice to think the Chinese death toll was accurate."<br /><br />Bwahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!Willhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00722792638246578812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-57242692637245156652020-03-22T08:08:01.100-04:002020-03-22T08:08:01.100-04:00All true about the CDC, but you probably don't...All true about the CDC, but you probably don't want to spend too much time thinking about the proportion of <i>everything everywhere</i> that is done on the fly. I can't tell you how often I feel as though I'm trying to put new head gaskets on a small-block Chevy while the car is rolling down the freeway.Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04780425923108876647noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-9018390982316115882020-03-22T07:25:24.708-04:002020-03-22T07:25:24.708-04:00@Beans
The CDC needed a shoe leather colonoscopy ...@Beans<br /><br />The CDC needed a shoe leather colonoscopy about 30 years ago. It is a highly politicized and deeply incompetent operation. They have spent untold money over those year on political topics rather than medicine. Had they been doing their actual jobs we would have been better prepared for this. A competent CDC wouldn't have prevented it, as it is a natural process, but we certainly could have stockpiled supplies, trained personnel and had a plan in place instead of having to do it on the fly. The politicization was a plus for Clinton and Obama but WTF were the Bushes doing.Richardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13416410052064018322noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-43841867127179607872020-03-21T20:00:51.801-04:002020-03-21T20:00:51.801-04:00We're most definitely in uncharted waters and ...We're most definitely in uncharted waters and it'd be nice to think the Chinese death toll was accurate.<br /><br />Let's pray Italy's not the model.LSPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08120630078039958644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-90312681104854890362020-03-21T17:12:59.723-04:002020-03-21T17:12:59.723-04:00Whoops.
Numbers will be going to crap again:
L.A. ...Whoops.<br />Numbers will be going to crap again:<br />L.A. County, running out of test kits already, tells doctors not to bother testing anyone, since it won't change how they'll treat patients.<br /><br />So after a spike in cases, they'll drop, neither of which is representative of reality.<br /><br />The only number anyone will track will be deaths, and that's one of the least-important numbers in this outbreak.<br /><br />https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-20/coronavirus-county-doctors-containment-testing<br /><br />So much for getting a statistical handle on things.<br />Top. Men.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-29372328154821653812020-03-21T14:59:10.179-04:002020-03-21T14:59:10.179-04:00The increase in the number of deaths is a better i...The increase in the number of deaths is a better indication of the spread of the virus, IMO. The only problem is that number lags the number of infections by about 14 days. The daily increase in the number of deaths has been holding pretty steady at about 24% for the past two weeks. Divemedichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14583007051962299381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-45635679295572486292020-03-21T13:36:45.842-04:002020-03-21T13:36:45.842-04:00"We are, in many places, set up like South Ko..."<i>We are, in many places, set up like South Korea in preparation.</i>"<br />Not so much, Beans.<br /><br />SK has 22 hospital beds per 1000 people.<br />Japan has 13.4 per 1000.<br />Italy has 3.2 per 1000.<br />The US has 2.8 per 1000.<br /><br />If we had 6.3M hospital beds, instead of 900K, <i>then</i> we'd be as prepared as Korea.<br />And we couldn't get the staff (doctors, nurses, etc.) for those beds in 30 years of all-out WWII mobilization effort.<br /><br />We are, in point of fact, set up in preparation more like Italy.<br /><br />And the current case surge has told us one thing, undeniably, whether it's due to more testing (I agree that it is) or not: the number of cases in the U.S. in the wild is booming, and we didn't do nearly enough to screen it out at any point.<br /><br />But that's what happens when you do kabuki theater temperature spot checks at the airport, for a virus that incubates at least 2-14 days.<br />That FakeScreening probably ensured that 99.8% of all infected persons traveling here arrived, and propagated it here, probably back as early as mid-January, when everyone who could do so got out of China ahead of their travel bans.<br /><br />We were seeing atypical severe pneumonia ICU admits back that far in the hospital, but no one correlated that to Kung Flu (for which there was no testing possible anyway).<br /><br />And the real CFR will be notable, but secondary; the real key number to know is the rate of infection requiring hospitalization, and the demographics of who gets sick. That will determine how bad this is, and how bad it'll get, long after this pandemic has swept by us.<br /><br />If we're going to do a shoe-leather colonscopy of CDC, can we please shoot the shoes out of cannons, after filling the shoes with lead foot forms?Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-83306960047706910852020-03-21T13:16:25.473-04:002020-03-21T13:16:25.473-04:00We would have had a much better reading of the act...We would have had a much better reading of the actual infectious rate if the CDC had just asked South Korea for help in developing a US produced test system.<br /><br />But, no. The CDC stepped on it, big time. After this panic is over, the CDC needs a major shoe-leather colonoscopy.<br /><br />As to the real infectious rate, looking at South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong and the Flu Cruise, those are the best examples of spread and mortality. Test early and often, isolate and support, fresh air and food.<br /><br />On the other hand, Italy, Iran, Communist China... well... Lots of lung-compromised people in a non-really modern world and with a health system already totally hosed, and you end up with.. Italy, Iran and ChiCom. Add in North Korea, which reports are beginning to creep out that, duh, Wuhan Flu is smacking the Hermit Kingdom really hard and we have examples of the worst things to do. Lots of sickly people, poor air quality overall and lack of modern medical attention and supplies.<br /><br />We are, in many places, set up like South Korea in preparation. We are, unfortunately, in many places meeting or exceeding the bad examples of how not to prepare and react, like, oh, say, the LA Basin.<br /><br />It is up to us if we rise or fall to the occasion. Beanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15293778848879361153noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-88633463951936205402020-03-21T12:57:55.517-04:002020-03-21T12:57:55.517-04:00I think the best indication of the illness will be...I think the best indication of the illness will be the number of individuals that directly know someone with the illness. In two weeks, if this indication doesn't arrive, many will feel either duped, or believe the efforts were a knee-jerk reaction. How they respond will be interesting. Jesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15969361446367636746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-11683435757202298852020-03-21T12:14:00.270-04:002020-03-21T12:14:00.270-04:00I have friends in Italy and in the UK who have and...I have friends in Italy and in the UK who have and are recovering from COVID-19. In Italy they aren't testing anymore, which means that the stats with the exception of the death toll, are unreliable. In the UK, they really never did test much and aren't testing. <br /><br />So the numbers (everywhere) are skewed.LLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05538854359365988863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-70120312619853761702020-03-21T12:02:25.541-04:002020-03-21T12:02:25.541-04:00Lack of data is always the bane of analysis... It ...Lack of data is always the bane of analysis... It will get better as more data comes in. And stop listening to the damn MSM who are trying to sell doom and gloom to keep the panic alive!Old NFOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16404197287935017147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-53471705186861303962020-03-21T11:45:36.521-04:002020-03-21T11:45:36.521-04:00I have been trying to tell my coworkers much the s...I have been trying to tell my coworkers much the same. But our company's official line is that things are getting apocalyptic. (Large multi-national firm.) Plus the news media is all hype and hysteris. We'll see, as you noted, in a few weeks or so. (BTW, howdy from Catonsville)Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08015544320906146949noreply@blogger.com