Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Something BREXIT this way comes

It is looking like the UK will leave the EU at the end of this month, despite a frantic effort by the elites to stop it.  I find this event fascinating and here are three views of what's happening.

First up, E.M. Smith:
I find it funny how frantic folks are being over the notion of a “no deal” joining the rest of the world. One reporter is saying that there are a bunch of drugs now on the “hard to get” list “due to Brexit” (that hasn’t happened yet…) Do they think drugs and food are not available in the rest of the world? That ONLY the EU has medicines, markets for products, cars to sell, food? The absolute LACK of any mention at all of New Zealand lamb, Australian Wheat, Canadian beef, and both Indian and US medicine producers is just stunning. 
I really wonder if folks are that disconnected from reality.
If you are really lucky, Hungary or Italy or Poland or … will refuse to extend Article 50 and the Speaker will refuse to alow a re-vote (the 3rd time now?) on T. May’s “deal” and in 10 days the UK will rejoin the rest of the world as a free nation in charge of their own fate.
The similarities to ZOMGTHERMAGEDDON!!! are striking.  And it's also striking that the EU's constitution has the exact same flaw as the United States' Articles of Confederation had: a single State can gum up the works, resulting in paralysis.  After how they've been treated by the EU, it's entirely plausible that Italy would vote not to extend and everything is basically done.  I wonder if Angela Merkel regrets throwing her weight around against EU member states?

Next up, Natalie Solent on Prime Minister Theresa May's prospects and options:
Whatever she does will make many people angry. The question is which set of people’s anger would it be the best strategy for her to avoid? 
If she revokes Article 50 the fact of doing it will delight Remainers. But the sort of people for whom that matters most now are also the sort of people who are committed anti-Tories. They won’t be delighted with her – nor with her party. They will judiciously register their opinion that at least the sorry cow did the right thing in the end and then vote Labour or Lib Dem or for the Independent Group if it stands. 
The same goes in diluted form if she goes for more extensions and delaying tactics. They may frustrate Brexit in the end, or result in Brexit in name only, but the sort of people who will be happy about that won’t thank Theresa May or switch to voting Tory. But the sort of people who will be utterly infuriated by either the revocation of Article 50 or the death of Brexit by a thousand cuts very much will blame Theresa May and very much will switch from voting Tory. A substantial majority of Conservative voters are pro-Leave. Members of local Conservative Parties are overwhelmingly pro-Leave. Potential Labour-to-Conservative swing voters are also very much pro-Leave and are swing voters because of that very issue. 
I do not know if May has any last scraps of ambition to continue as an MP. I would guess that all that matters to her now is her legacy. But whether she sticks around for the voters of Maidenhead or not, if she fails to deliver Brexit her legacy will be the destruction of the Conservative party. Its most committed supporters are exactly the group who care about Brexit most. If she does deliver it these people will still not think much of her but they will judiciously register their opinion that at least the sorry cow did the right thing in the end and then continue to vote Conservative.
And we wrap up with Perry DeHavilland and a graphic that explains the mess the "Elites" find themselves in:


Old NFO said...

She's toast either way, but the Zomygoders aren't any better. They want to stay and are using specious arguments to go against the will of the people.

Richard said...

Change a few names, dates and issues and your analysis of who to make mad works as a litmus test for Bush too. He failed.

Borepatch said...

Richard, sure did.

And in both cases it's because neither wanted to succeed.