A few months back I ran the numbers and the answer is 3 years. And that was with all sorts of assumptions about how gun owners would just chill out the whole time. Whatevez, bro.
Eric Raymond comments on a new article that made the same calculation, and came up with a pretty similar number to what I derived (hey, the numbers are the numbers). But he did some calculation on the expected rate of violent resistance. The numbers are pretty stark:
This is an interesting approach to the problem - take current military doctrine and calculate backwards to see if you have a plausible input.
That's 0.3% of American gun owners. That's ten times less than the Threepers talk about.
The comments are pretty interesting, with a bunch of Europeans telling people that this is no big deal (Whatevez, bro), and getting hammered pretty hard for it.