Thursday, May 12, 2016

Hilary Clinton is in big trouble

It seems that Republican turnout in the primaries is way up, and Democratic turnout is way down:

In 2008 21.9 million Republicans voted in the primary and 58.1 million voted in the general election (265% increase).   In 2012 19.2 million primary -vs- 59.2 million in the general (308% increase).
Barack Obama won in ’08 with 66.5 million / McCain 58.1.
Barack Obama won in ’12 with 62.3 million / Romney 59.2
If the 2016 increases are even remotely maintained given the scope of the current increase in Republican Primary participation, the general election vote would be through the roof.
I'm not very interested in the polls right now, because their weakness is in how they estimate turnout. There are still a bunch of big primaries left to go (California and New Jersey, to name only two) and we can plausibly estimate the number of votes for Donald Trump in November at 80 Million.  Hillary plausibly tracks to 55 Million.

Think about those numbers.

And it gets worse for her.  The excitement on the GOP side is all Trump, all the time.  The excitement on the Democratic side is feel the Berne.  No love for Hillary there, although someone more heartless than I might say that's the story of her life.  So I won't say that.

Add in the seeming crossover appeal that Trump has - pulling in bunch of Democratic voters in West Virginia, for example - and the 17 Million people who tuned into the debate to watch The Donald, and things look really, really bleak for Hillary.

Like I've been saying, I have no idea whether Donald Trump would make a good President or not.  But we're fixing' to find out.

Hat tip: American Digest.


Ted said...

I would agree that the Donald's performance as President is somewhat suspect. But we do know that a Hillary presidency is "more of same" as the last 8 years .... Only this time with more screaming and lecturing........

Now matter what they claim the polls show , This is building to be a landslide of epic proportions.

Just wait until the endless elect Hillary ads start. The more they run those the worse her numbers will get

matism said...

One more time:

China hates Trump.
Japan hates Trump.
Mexico hates Trump.
Merkel hates Trump.
Hollande hates Trump.
Cameron hates Trump.
Draghi hates Trump.
The "pope" hates Trump.
Mittens hates Trump.
McShame hates Trump.
"Weepy" hates Trump.
Lyin' Ryan hates Trump.
Post Turtle hates Trump.

Now it is possible that all those merely see that Trump will destroy the United States, and they only are trying to warn Mere Citizens against making such an awful choice.

But that is NOT how the smart money bets. Instead, it is FAR more likely that all of them understand that their gravy train is about to end if Trump gets elected. And all their screeching and shrieking and wailing and gnashing of teeth is simply because they feel entitled to continue to be supported in the lifestyle to which they have become accustomed. And that they ALSO see their One World Government circling the drain as well. Which is also why Putin says he respects Trump, because he is the only candidate for President who actually believes in the US as a nation-state, and also thinks that Western culture is worth preserving.

Mike said...

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes that the increase in voter turnout is due to people in favor of Trump. I don't think that's reasonable. There were a lot of people coming out to vote against Trump as well, and not all of them will vote the party line in November. I will, despite a strong suspicion that Trump is going to act much more in common with the 40 years before the last year than what he's been saying since he decided to run on the Stupid Party ticket, because I know for sure how bad Hillary will be and I also know that a vote for anyone other than those two just helps Hillary.

However, I don't see how anyone with a functional brain can think that Trump is anti-establishment. It's true that he's not another politician - He's the guy who has been bribing the politicians. I don't see that moving from the recipient to the source of the corruption is a step up.

EMS Artifact said...

All of which assumes that Shrillary will be the Democrat nominee. I think there is a substantial possibility that she isn't and that Biden is.