Thursday, February 21, 2019

Even the UN IPCC says we're not headed for climate disaster

At least not any time soon.  Climate scientist Judy Curry testified before Congress, and this is really interesting:
Some people (including one of the Members) took issue with the following statement in my testimony:
“Based upon our current assessment of the science, the threat does not seem to be an existential one on the time scale of the 21st century, even in its most alarming incarnation.”
I referred to AR5 WGII:
“Every single catastrophic scenario considered by the IPCC AR5 (WGII, Table 12.4) has a rating of very unlikely or exceptionally unlikely and/or has low confidence. The only tipping point that the IPCC considers likely in the 21stcentury is disappearance of Arctic summer sea ice (which is fairly reversible, since sea ice freezes every winter).”
In hindsight, I should have hit this a bit harder.
For those who haven't been following along at home, let me give some background.  The UN IPCC (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is the body who produces Assessment Reports on the state of the climate every five years.  This collects what is considered the best consensus science.  The last Assessment Report is Assessment Report 5, or AR5.  The section that Curry quoted is Working Group 2 (WGII) which (being to lazy to look up) is the report for government policymakers, providing guidance to those considering new laws.

So Curry quoted the consensus science intended to inform policy makers to Congress, and that guidance says "no disaster any time this century".  I will bring this up next time I'm in a discussion with the Usual Suspects™.

The only people who object are, of course, Climate Change Deniers.  Heh.


"Zack" said...

but ... but ... I paid a lot of money for the predicted oceanfront property in the future tropics of southern Illinois ...

Aw, jeez ...

SiGraybeard said...

This is a truly important talk, with certain socialist twits saying the world is going to end in 12 years. That's a bad enough reading on its own, but it's based on a bad reading of a particularly apocalyptic UN report. The fact that nobody, not even so-called climate scientists, is saying what she says has been totally ignored by everyone.