Thursday, March 1, 2018

Prediction: no new gun control laws

There is quite a lot of nervousness in our little corner of the 'net, all around Donald Trump's comments about gun control laws and what he'd like to see.

With all due respect to co-blogger and brother-from-another-mother ASM826, it's not going to happen.  Here's why:

1.  Trump understands "Flyover Country" better than any politician today.  That's why he found issues that resonated so strongly with them that (ahem) trumped up scandal after trumped up scandal had absolutely no impact on their support for him.  He knows what gun control means to them, and how they would view him if he supported Chuck Schumer against them.

2.  The school shooting has been on the TV 24x7 for two weeks, as the MSM tries once more to intimidate Republicans into giving Democrats something for free.  There is nobody less susceptible to media pressure than Trump is.

3.  Trump knows how to troll his opponents better than any politician today.  Remember his meeting with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi about DACA and immigration?  How he would "sign anything they sent him"?  Boy, that sure played out great for Democrats, didn't it?

4.  Trump wants the GOP to win the elections this fall, or at least not to lose too badly.  That's goal #1 which sets the stage for a Congress that will implement his agenda which will get him re-elected in 2020.  That's goal #2.  Trolling the Democrats to get them to propose all sorts of heinous gun control laws (that go nowhere) will leave voters with little doubt what the Democrats would do if they win the election this November.

So all that's happening is that he's Trolling the media and the Democrats (redundancy alert!).

Hey, maybe I'm wrong.  I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken.


Miguel GFZ said...

Agree that at Federal level, new laws are going to be a tough proposition. The scary part is at the State Level where some GOPers Legislators seem to be, if not caving, then bending a bit too much.
The Florida House rejected to hear an "Assault Weapons" Ban but then the Speaker joined the President of the Senate with the bill that among other stuff, raised the age of buying guns to 21.

New Jovian Thunderbolt said...

This post, I think your analysis is spot on.

Just one time I'd like to see a big clamor for restrictions lead to... Major rights expansions. So that gun banners get punished that way. When they want something, the opposite happens. For once.

But what I wish for and what I think will happen are two different things.

Jess said...

It's midterm season, so the political rhetoric is as bad as the pollen.

I think you're right. In the long run, legislators won't change the gun laws, those running on changing gun laws are the same types of people that don't honor their campaign promises, and things will go on as before.

Murphy(AZ) said...

From your keyboard to G*d's ear!

I agree that nothing will pass the Federal Congress, as they all either fear for their fat-cat, graft inducing, money machine jobs, or they fear exposure for the above and they're bailing out before the perp-walk.

The state legislators are a similar animal of a different stripe. They want like h*ll to join the big leagues, so they have to appear to be doing something. They will pass bump-stock bans, age changes, magazine size restrictions, and out-right bans on "weapons of war" and "full semi-automatic" (I actually heard someone say that yesterday,) pistols.

That's where the NRA steps in to redeem themselves with lawsuit after lawsuit, claiming that all this pre-election hustle and fury violates the Second Amendment. Their experience in these matters and their deep pockets will insure that, when the dust settles, nothing will change.

SiGraybeard said...

With a few exceptions, what we see happening is Republicans lining up to enact Democrat policies. And they think there will be no repercussions from that? We can only hope some sense breaks out, because while I hope you're right, the outward signs are not pointing that way.

A few days ago we heard, "Trump is backing away from raising the age to buy a long gun", yesterday we hear "take their guns, due process takes too long" from the man himself. I don't see that as progress.

Taken out of context, that remark is "the civil war has begun, load your magazines and deploy" scary. It's not much better in context.

Borepatch said...

Miguel, it looks like we may be past peak gun ban hysteria. It sure looks like it didn't hit very many places. Kind of like last time.

NJT, I agree 100%. Nation wide concealed carry is a big stick to use against them.

Murphy, I'm sadly less confident that the NRA is interested in fighting too many of these in court. I think they like having these waves of panic because it results in donations and new members. It's good for business, as it were. I don't see them wanting to solve they problem and make themselves irrelevant.

SiGraybeard, the GOPe may still be cowed, but I'm pretty sure that Trump sees how to play this, and will ultimately line (most of) them up. They still have to get used to winning.

Anonymous said...

Heh he, I like your last comment.

I used to tell my family, who would allow me to humor them, "I made a mistake once, I thought I was wrong but I wasn't."

Anyway, you are correct that Trump has their Number and he is playing it on his Big Fiddle. They don't know what to do and the more they try anything and everything, the more dumb they look. Their stupidity is doing them in. They may have a fighting chance in the future by sending the oldies but goodies to the showers, e.g. Feinstein, Pelosi, and others, but it will take time for them to get a strong foothold in replacing these old gals. And I include people like Chuck U Schumer in that group of "girls." Have you seen pictures of him making a fist? WTF?

Murphy(AZ) said...

Just off hand, has anyone heard from Gun Owners of America on this?

Sean D Sorrentino said...

This is my read on the situation as well. The Dems have proposed to enact the "everything, including the kitchen sink" gun ban bill, not only Federally, but in the states. So they've signaled that supporting Dems at any level is tantamount to supporting gun bans. He's letting them rip their own masks off.

Rick C said...

"A few days ago we heard, "Trump is backing away from raising the age to buy a long gun", yesterday we hear "take their guns, due process takes too long" from the man himself. I don't see that as progress."

SIGraybeard, don't forget this is the guy who said "You want amnesty for 800,000 people? How about amnesty for 1.8 (or was it 3?) million?" and then sat back while they rejected his offer of exactly what they wanted.

At this point I'm going to give the guy--who, we all remember, famously acts as if he doesn't have a verbal filter, whether or not he actually does--a little bit of the benefit of the doubt and not panic.

Jeffrey Smith said...

You're giving him far too much credit. He says whatever he thinks will sound good at the moment with the audience he's focused on. Yesterday he was aiming at the broad mass of people who are not motivated about the 2A. Tomorrow he'll have a different audience and say whatever sounds good to them. Meantime he counts on legislative deadlock to ensure the status quo continues.