According to the latest Rasmussen state polls, Mitt Romney is in position to win the presidency; he should win at least 279 electoral votes. Romney leads in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire; Obama leads in Nevada. Wisconsin and Iowa are tied. Were Romney to win both Wisconsin and Iowa, he’d secure another 16 electoral votes, putting him at 295 electoral votes. By way of contrast, George W. Bush won 286 electoral votes in 2004.Borepatch, May 15 Romney 296, Obama 242:
So there's the line up. It could be worse: the states I have listed as "Weak Obama" have 85 Electoral votes: Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, WisconsinMy gentle readers were, ahem, skeptical (*cough* DENIERS! *cough*). Just sayin' that a good rule of thumb is to always trust content from Borepatch. Of course, I've since updated my prediction from May, talking about the signs of a Romney sweep, maybe as many as 400 electoral votes:
Quite frankly, some of those very well might break for Romney if the current weak economy and ineffectual thrashing by the Obama campaign continues. The Romney camp has been impressively disciplined, and so it's far more likely that a damaging gaffe will come from the Democrats this season. If all of those 85 votes break for Romney, you have to go back to Reagan's victory in 1984 to find a worse drubbing.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but there is no upside for Obama at this point, only minimizing the loss. A 297 to 241 loss might preserve his chances to run again; a 382 to 156 loss will leave him washed up. But there really isn't any path to victory for him - after all, Mussolini could beat him this year.
It's plausible that this election will see a D+0 advantage (i.e. none at all). Not guaranteed, but plausible. If so, how does that translate? Well, consider that even in the D+10 polls Obama didn't break 50% - in fact he hasn't broken 50% in around a year or so. Now take away that D+10, making it D+0 and what do you get? Low 40s - 42%, maybe 43% to Mitt's 52%.The punchline? Gallup has voter affiliation as R+1.
When was the last election that say that sort of split? It was 1988, when George H.W. Bush captured 426 Electoral Votes.
You want to know why there's panic in the Democratic party? The Stars may lie, but the numbers never do.
And so all y'all who are nervous about this election, grab a good whiskey and a nice cigar. No Professor Doom gonna stand in my way, I feel lucky today. Of course, Romney winning is a very, very bad thing. But you can put it in the bank.
Always trust content from Borepatch ...
5 comments:
Yeah, the dems ARE panicing... :-) Now I'm hearing rumors they want to postpone the election because teh storm has disenfranchised so many of their voters!!!
I agree totally with your tea leaf reading but I'm not nearly as pessimistic about Romney. He can also see the writing on the wall from this election and 2010. The Tea Party is alive and well and like the political animal he is he'll don the striped suit that ensures his success and re-election in '16. I'm betting (and we really are betting here) that he'll be a lot more big C conservative than folks fear.
IF (very big IF) the polls are right, then only two things could save Barry Lackwit now. One is a huge turnout of the D base (and Dbase has been dead for years) combined with a backwash of independents who are convinced by the Lackwit's last-minute campaigning. The other is that some independents will look at the Lackwit's reaction to Superstorm Sandy, as juiced-up by media comparisons to President Bush's inept reaction to Katrina, and decide maybe he really is competent to be president.
Based off my own unofficial sampling I'm seeing a huge break away to the R camp this time around as well. Additionally judging by the attacks I'm seeing from Memes to news stories ranging from taking things way out of proportion to out right lies there is out right desperation out there. The Left knows its been beaten badly and is fighting with everything its got.
And its not really about the presidential race itself. (Though Ryan gives them fits.) Its about the fact that the land slide in the house and senate that is coming as well. That is what really scares them the most, The presidential race is just the flagship in an entire armada that is coming to capsize their dreams. Furthermore at least for now there is enough sentiment out there that the left suspects the Right's people will have their feet held to the fire regardless of a win and if they squander the chance to right things they will -never- be forgiven.
The left is terrified right now. I still suspect there will be "isolated" incidents to try to suppress turnout. Or something in the 11th hour that will appear similar to the Bush National Guard lies. This time it will be dropped too late to the finish line to be "Fact Checked" like what happened last time. And it will be some "Independent group" Not the D party itself.
The title of this post made me think of: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xO9Vr_nBE8
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