That 7 point turnout advantage in 2008 for Democrats was historic. You mean to tell me many of these pollsters have been claiming they see numbers in their polls that leads them to conclude Democrats are going to TOP that turnout in 2012?It's plausible that this election will see a D+0 advantage (i.e. none at all). Not guaranteed, but plausible. If so, how does that translate? Well, consider that even in the D+10 polls Obama didn't break 50% - in fact he hasn't broken 50% in around a year or so. Now take away that D+10, making it D+0 and what do you get? Low 40s - 42%, maybe 43% to Mitt's 52%.
Why, yes. I am telling you that. Because that's what they did.
In September, 6 major pollsters claimed to see a D+7 advantage for Democrats. 3 of them - Reuters, ABC/WaPo and Dem. Corps - claimed to see a Democrat advantage of 10 points or more.
When was the last election that say that sort of split? It was 1988, when George H.W. Bush captured 426 Electoral Votes. And Bush only won the popular vote 49-42. The race this year will hinge on turnout, but I'm thinking that my prediction of Romney at 370 or so is understating the outcome.