I'm getting specific in my prediction. The following can be taken as a best case projection for the Democrats.
States voting for Romney (296 Electoral Votes): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine (split: 1 EV), Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming
States voting for Obama (242 Electoral Votes): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Dist. of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine (split: 3 EV), Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin
My calculus is to look at the current state-by-state projections, and weaken Obama one level in each state: "Solid Obama" becomes "Strong Obama", "Strong Obama" becomes "Weak Obama", "Weak Obama" becomes "Weak Romney". Nothing will be shifting from the Romney column to the Obama column between now and November.
So there's the line up. It could be worse: the states I have listed as "Weak Obama" have 85 Electoral votes: Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin
Quite frankly, some of those very well might break for Romney if the current weak economy and ineffectual thrashing by the Obama campaign continues. The Romney camp has been impressively disciplined, and so it's far more likely that a damaging gaffe will come from the Democrats this season. If all of those 85 votes break for Romney, you have to go back to Reagan's victory in 1984 to find a worse drubbing.
Not to put too fine a point on it, but there is no upside for Obama at this point, only minimizing the loss. A 297 to 241 loss might preserve his chances to run again; a 382 to 156 loss will leave him washed up. But there really isn't any path to victory for him - after all, Mussolini could beat him this year.
So you have a specific prediction here, with a range of result. Note that I think that this is very likely a bad thing for the Republic, but facts are facts, and this is how I see them. Your mileage may vary, void where prohibited, do not remove tag under penalty of law.