The Margin Of Fraud

This race is too close to call. The numbers shown here are the official Borepatch estimate of the honest election results. This is based on percentage of party affiliation (or lack thereof) and the way voters seem to be breaking within those parties. Turnout is heavy - even with the bad weather - and so the polls can be looked on as being more reliable than many had thought.

Independents are the largest bloc, and are polling 2:1 in favor of Brown. The Democrats and Republicans will reliably line up with their candidate (with a slight edge here for the Republicans due to an energized Republican base and a Demoralized Democrat base). Cranking the numbers, Brown will smoke Coakley.


Of course, the reported results will be nowhere near this, because of the Margin Of Fraud.

Massachusetts is a one-party state, with a powerful, entrenched political Machine. A Machine is needed for days like this. While the distinct paucity of Coakley signs, supporters, canvasers, and other visible support suggests that the Machine is dormant, the activity will be done behind the scenes, stuffing as many fraudulent ballots into the boxes as possible.

The question is not will they do this? The question is how much will they do? That's the Margin Of Fraud (MOF).

I'm guessing the MOF is 5%, which means that this race is too close to call.

Interestingly, I'm currently the #2 Google result for "betting odds on massachusetts senate race".

UPDATE 19 December 2010 17:28: In the Middle of the Right asks a question. Heh.