I wrote this a month ago and don't think any differently:
The ghosts of Stalingrad
Peter doesn't think we have any compelling national interest to get into a war with Russia over Ukraine. I agree, and would amplify it like this:
Why on earth are we talking about getting into a war in Russia in the winter?
I mean, you could ask Napoleon how that turned out, or the German 6th Army. Heck, you could ask the Afghani allies we just left behind how good an idea this is. Since our military has such a good track record this century.
Peter's take is that the Powers That Be are getting desperate as the economy is mired in stagflation, the vaxx mandate is increasingly unpopular, and Biden's approval rating drops lower than any President in my lifetime. A foreign adventure is often the prescription for what ails them - politics ends at the water's edge, right?
Except no - firstly, this is nothing but madness. Bill Clinton at least had the good sense to bomb a Somali aspirin factory rather than Sevastapol. Secondly, we've heard from Democrats for 20 years that politics does NOT end at the water's edge.
Quite frankly, it's time for Congress to step up as the Adult Supervision* and pass a resolution saying that we do not have a compelling national interest in NATO expansion into Ukraine, and we sure as heck don't have a compelling interest in Americans getting killed over that. It sure would be something to see the Democrats filibuster that.
It's been a long time since I've tagged a post "Atomic War" ...
* This just goes to illustrate how weird things are.
UPDATE 22 January 2022 18:17: J.Kb has a must read post about this.
I would expand on this, with several additional arguments:
- The Biden Administration has done terrible damage to our armed forces, which quite frankly may not have the capacity to respond meaningfully in a peer-to-peer shooting war.
- There is quite a good chance that if we do engage with Russia that the Chinese will think that this is the best opportunity they will ever see to take Taiwan back. The ability of our armed forces to simultaneously engage with two peer-to-peer conflicts is roughly between slim and none. And Slim just left town. (UPDATE 24 FEBRUARY 2022 12:01: Aesop has some Pertinent thoughts on this topic, and is more pessimistic than I am.)
- An actual shooting war involving the US and NATO will show that Donald Trump was right: NATO members have not been living up to their agreements on funding troop levels and readiness. Quite frankly we all think that NATO is a paper tiger but a hot war will prove the point.
- A corollary to #3 is that the EU will come under big pressure to do something - anything - about the conflict and any refugees. The EU will be paralyzed (because it's always paralyzed) and will be exposed as not the "United States of Europe" but rather a paper tiger just like NATO.
- Germans will begin to freeze in the dark. They shut down a whole bunch of base load power (Energiewende) and now the Russians have them over a barrel. Fuel Poverty is a real thing.
22 comments:
No reason for us to intervene. We'll see how the Russians do. Spring thaw is coming and they might have their own problems.
1) Of course he'll get away with it. He realized that by noon on Tuesday.
2) Military intervention = Unplanned Release Of Canned Sunshine. So no just "No.", but "F**K NO!!"
3) Everything else is on the table.
Start with returning Russia to where the Soviet Union was by January 1980. Shut out of the world. In every possible way.
Throw gravel in every piece of gear they've got, metaphorically, and perhaps even literally.
4) Then let the hordes of lesser (and less capable) Putins waiting in the wings - as they always are there - start thinking of ways to arkancide Actual Putin, which outcome has a long and glorious Russian tradition. Get Vladimir more worried about watching his back, and he'll have less time and energy (let alone certainty) about screwing around outside his borders. (Which are about to get a little bigger, as he burps and wipes his chin with a table napkin, for functionally zero effort, and less cost.)
5) Announce to NATO than henceforth, all NATO forces will either be 80% Euro, or non-existant. They can decide whether to pony up, or bow out. Move the bases to the countries that ante into the game. Do an annual review, and start this years today, with conclusions due by COB Friday, EST.
Announce base closures and moves will begin April 1, 2021.
Light a fire under their asses.
6) Nice gas pipelines you got in Europe coming out of Russia. Be a real shame if they started randomly exploding, driving a wedge between Russia and everybody, and removing Vlad's biggest chip from the table before anyone even deals the cards, and underlines how much they've bent over for Moscow already.
All that, I'd support 100%.
But not one troop, and no materiel for the war zone.
Those are acts of war, and only a fool would try to get in on that game, given our current situation, in so many ways.
Aesop, what has Russia done that we have not done worse, after the fall of USSR. Are you from Eastern Europe?
Meanwhile, as the cameras pan east, the foreign invasion at our southern border continues, aided and abetted by the treasonous occupant of the White House... Nothing to see here, folks...
Of course Russia can take Ukraine. That's not news. If we managed to move every single tank the United States to Europe, how long would that take? We don't have the ships to move them in a timely fashion. By the time we got there and moved them across Europe, this war will be over. If we did somehow get them there, Russia still would have a 2 to 1 advantage in armor.
We don't have the Army to fight a land war in Europe. We took the peace dividend back at the fall of the USSR and shut down our ability to respond to aggression by Russia. Our military isn't configured to fight a large sustained land war anywhere.
And he has nukes. Plenty enough of them to make any aggressive move on our part too costly to consider.
The question now becomes, what if Russia doesn't stop at Ukraine?
Our own house is on fire with illegals being aided and assisted by our OWN Government shipping them to RED states.
Clean our own house and stop being the world policeman.
Jaime,
Please take leave to go and punch your history teacher right in the dick, repeatedly, for so manifestly failing to deliver to you any understanding of what happened east of Berlin and west of Moscow from 1945-1989, inclusive, let alone for hundreds of years prior to the death of Czar Nicolas.
Only such a total dearth of comprehension could explain your remarks.
History didn't start in 1990, particularly not with Russia. You should probably write that on your hand. To suggest any equivalency between US actions and Russian actions pretty much at any point in world history is gobsmackingly silly. Russia didn't spring up ex nihilo after Gorbachev, and pretending it is otherwise paints you in a very poor light.
An introspective, crippled, and humbled Russia is in everyone's interest.
A militarily adventurous Russian state only increases both world tensions, and the DEFCON levels of at least seven other nuclear powers.
Sticking a foot out to help them find the ground with their chin any way short of open warfare thus serves everyone's hopes and dreams, except Putin's.
I do not think 1990 is year 0. One reason I asked if you are Eastern European.
No answer to my questions.
I take a different tack here.
The model is Afghanistan, where the Russians tried to take over a large undeveloped country and were essentially run out by the goat f***ers. They did no better than even the incompetence Biden displayed getting out of there last summer. The population of Ukraine is around 45 million. So 0.2 to 0.4% of that is going to pacify the country? The country voted to move to the West, to join the EU - plus, chances are every Ukrainian today has a grandma or grandpa that told them stories of the Holodomor. How many interviews have you heard where Ukrainians said they'll fight to the death?
I can see Russia taking over, probably putting in a puppet government, but then the occupiers getting picked off one by one by one. The hard part isn't taking the country, it's holding it.
Well we can all rest easy knowing that General Aesop is in charge and has all the answers!😆👍
Borepatch - I agree. I think. But…what if Putin moves on the other former buffer countries as well?
first, our military can fight a two front peer on peer war, if we're well led, and it is such as this in that russia would be mainly land tank on tank while china would be mainly naval/air war. again, IF we are well led.
second, why? well to keep the brandon crime cabal secrets that's why, and to keep the grift flowing for all their offspring. but it's rather hard to beat somebody you buy 600k barrels of oil from every day, and needs nothing what so ever from us. nothing like paying your enemy to over run your cash box is it?
then there is the hypocrisy of it all. we condemn putin, but we just spent 20 years doing the same damn thing. and to top it off, hillary and company deposed ukraine's elected leader and kicked off this whole situation to begin with. but i agree in the end, it's europe's problem. time for them to step up to the plate and stop hiding behind american soldiers.
Aesop, why do you have to be such a dick anytime someone doesn't agree with you 100%? You seem to think you're the only one who ever reads history. And the fact that you were a minor in the Navy's infantry corps, I guess makes you an expert on everything military --- NOT!
Sheesh, if General Aesop were in charge, he's the only one I can think of who would be worse than the goof we have now.
Borepatch, I mostly agree, but like Glen, I have concerns about "What next".
Riverrider, I mostly agree with you too with one caveat. In a tank vs tank war, it will come down to who controls the airspace above the battlefield.
Aesop, some of us need more than a fancy word we learned in Bible College to be impressed by your unsupported argument.
The thing you forget, aside from Biden's many deficits, which are many, is that America can still unleash some serious sanctions on the Russians, that could cause a very huge problem for their ability to keep the lights on at home.
The only thing is, are the Democrats courageous enough to implement them? Because they will be tougher than bullets and bombs, in the history books.
Roy,
Your endless scorching butthurt is noted. Try salve.
Roy's buddy in Canuckistan,
How's that whole "being a subject of the queen" thing working out for ya? How does it feel to live in Northern Venezuela every single day?
Jaime,
My national origin has literally nothing to do with anything. Why pretend that it's even an issue?
Putin is a KGB assassin who misses the Soviet Union in what he alone sees as its glory days, and he's already invaded multiple breakaway republics to drag them all back into the Russian orbit, kicking and screaming, no matter how many people he has to kill to get his wish.
He really should have a nuke popped on his ass, with instructions to reconsider his plans in haste, if he wants to rule over anything but ashes.
NATO is already openly and seriously wondering if he'll stop at the Ukrainian western border, or try to go all the way to Germany and reconquer the Baltic States.
Any pretense that this is just enlightened self-interest on his part is inarguably delusional.
Maybe if Mexico decided that taking over Texas and the southwest was in their self-interest, the penny would finally drop for all the isolationist commie apologists, but even then it's an open question.
Maybe we should give Florida back to Spain, grant Hawaiian independence, give Alaska back to Russia, and let the French re-negotiate the lopsided Louisiana Purchase while you're up too?
At what point, d'ya suppose, countries snapping up their neighbors is something to be strongly discouraged? Only when it's your ox being gored? Or perhaps, as an independent principle?
Should Merkel be granted Danzig and the Polish corridor? Annex the Sudetenland, and move back into Alsace-Lorraine? For some lebensraum? Shouldn't Italy get Egypt and Libya back? In fact, don't thy have claims on everything from London to Greece?
Should we start passing states back to Indians? The Mohawks get NY, the Cherokee get Georgia, the Seminoles get Florida?
How far do we go before we acknowledge that the rules of 1622 don't apply any more in 2022?
At what point do you call a halt to this, on principle?
Or is it that you simply have none, other than expediency and ability?
And tell us all: is the world safer and more secure now than it was 48 hours ago, or less so?
It's as if Wikipedia memory-hold the entire lifetime example of Neville Chamberlain, and no one remembers him having ever happened.
"How's that whole "being a subject of the queen..."
I'm not Glen, but two can play that game: How's that whole "living in California" thing working out for ya Aesop?
"Putin is a..." Now you're a mind reader too, I see.
"Your endless scorching butthurt is noted." Yeah, this from a guy who posted 16 paragraphs of butthurt in response.
"He really should have a nuke popped on his ass..." Now I know beyond a doubt that if General Aesop were in charge, he would definitely be worse than the goof we have now.
Lets be honest. Even when the USA was at it's best post Gulf War both Russia and China could do pretty much whatever they wanted and our only options were to accept it or go to war...big time. Meaning the odds of canned sunshine showing up being pretty much guaranteed. That is and has always been the ugly reality of life. It's just that Pedo Joe's dementia and the obvious incompetence of his handlers have made it obvious that NOW is the time for any country with an agenda to act on it.
@Butthurt,
Working out fine. Your toothless banjo-playing kinfolk are fleeing here and back from whence they came at epic rates not seen in living memory. Another good earthquake, and the crowd becomes a stampede. Worse here = better. The sooner the state goes totally bankrupt, the quicker the statues of Lenin and Marx come down here too. Bummer about all those other states purpling up though. Brace for impact.
No mindreading necessary. Read Putin's bio. Then list the breakaway republics he's dragged back into the Sov...er, Russian federation. I'll wait while you look that up.
I posted no butthurt, and exactly two lines of what I posted was directed at you. And you still haven't read the second one, while stepping in and answering for everyone else underlines the truth of the first one. Well-played, sir.
If General Aesop were in charge, elements of the 10th SFG would be merrily blowing up bridges across every river in Ukraine along the Russian axes of advance, and if a nuke happened to pop adjacent to the theater command of the invasion force, it'd be made to look like the Russians did it by accident. Bonus points if it was Chernobyl-adjacent. And you'd never hear anything about any of that this side of 2072, if ever. The only thing Gropey Dopey is liable to accomplish is splattering another pair of pants when the seals leak on his Depends. Apparently, you're a fan. I wouldn't have guessed, but it's a free country.
General Aesop - look up "Keyboard warrior", your picture is there.
Again with the "toothless banjo players". We've been over this before. If you knew any actual banjo players, you would know that they are not the Marxist/Leninists you claim them to be. Indeed, if all of Appalachia suddenly moved to your state it would turn a very bright red. (...or redder anyway.) But you know that, don't you. Indeed, that's what you're afraid of isn't it? You *like* CA just like it is.
Anyway, if you have a surplus of "toothless banjo players", go ahead and send them. They're welcome here, because, unlike you, we know who our natural allies are. ...just as long as *YOU* stay there.
Roy, you started this OT pissing contest, into the wind, and purely from a surplus of butthurt, as noted from the outset. It will apparently continue until you choose to stop. Good luck with that policy.
And as for Appalachia, or any other banjo-playing region, the welfare rolls both there and here are replete with your imaginary red-state folks, sucking on government's ample teat, lifelong. They are exactly the Marxists described. One need only look at voting rolls nationwide from 1932-1980, and the sort of socialism that followed one from the other.
Their departure from your precincts for sunnier climes also exactly parallels this state's slide into oblivion over the exact same timeframe.
Enjoy them coming back home to roost, but don't try to palm the purpling of your home districts off as due to "Californians". They weren't that when they came here, and they won't be when they return home either. You surely deserve each other, but will likely continually fail to profit from the lesson.
Now, did you have anything to offer on the actual OP topic, or was this just to relieve your bladder again?
Aesop, I almost hate to rain on your parade, but the US has about a 13 times bigger economy than the Russian bunch. So we could effectively shut down them pretty effectively, for long enough for their war machine to run out of bullets and beans, and fuel to run on, yet alone their civilian population, which has been protesting this latest junta quite handily.
The way the world works now is much differently from the days of giving every other soldier a Mosin Nagant, and a bullet, with orders to pick up one that they come across laying on the ground. The same for the Japanese, and their Arisaka.
Today's wars are fought by technical innovations such as drones, guns that shoot around the corner or over walls, or using the internet to stop other nation's systems from functioning correctly.
To look at modern warfare as some kind of a medieval renfair. There is little doubt that Putin wants to bring back the USSR of old, returning the glory to the Motherland. The problem with that is those nations that are no longer a part of the USSR are for the most part happy on their own, and would rather not rejoin their former imperialist nation of colonies.
The thing that really bothers me about free and open forums on the internet, is that people like Aesop are obviously intelligent, well read, and able to convey their thoughts. You just think that in order to be taken seriously, you have to use fancy words, or voluminous pontification, so that we will take you seriously.
Let me just say, the King James Bible was written in the everyday language of actual people on the street. with what was considered about an 8th grade education. If one of the greatest books ever written was able to be written in normal, easily understood language, then certainly you can make make your point without trying to find obscure words that either drive people to their dictionary, or simply force them to skip the section completely.
And like Magic, divisions and infighting (but I repeat myself) allow the Deep State propaganda to continue to roll all over us.
Gosh darn it we be SO Smart...
Or maybe I should say POOF, COVID is GONE (until needed later for control reasons) POOF all the Sock Puppets errors and graft is GONE, POOF the Canadian Trucker Tyranny and the SOON AMerican Trucker Buffalo Jump into the Gulag is GONE.
Propaganda has Russia, Russia, Russia doing all the EVIL STUFF like gasoline going off the charts and SOON Food Shortages, REAL ONES as in it's not Honey what do you want for dinner? It's Honey what DO WE HAVE around FOR Dinner.
Everyone has a story, ALL of us have excessive EGO, and most of us believe a half dozen things that are not true before breakfast. (ht to Alice in Wonderland's Red Queen?).
At least Aesop welcomes thought out disagreements AND will actually entertain discussions instead of Banning Folks for lack of Praise for American Partisan's Boss.
Our OWN Snowflakes are butthurt banning just like the crybaby "Safe Spaces" Blue Haired freaks we so distain.
NO WONDER the Globalists are well on their way to reducing our population and getting US to shoot each other over the scraps.
I have a few I trust with my Life, Liberty and Family. DO YOU?
@pigpen
Thanks for the lesson, because I thought Putin was invading with catapults, war elephants, and a phalanx of heavy spearmen.
What we can do vs. What we will do is an open question, esp. given how hard this admin has tried to start this war in the first place, and any action besides hand-wring worldwide was an open question just 5 days ago.
As for what the former Sov, er... Russian satellite states would prefer, tell us how those desires worked out in Georgia. Or Chechenya. And who stepped in to prevent it.
No one, least of all me, has argued they don't want to be Russia. But prior to last week, that option hasn't had much traction.
My language is neither fancy, nor voluminous (which, let's be serious, is pretty much a $1.98 word too).
I write the way I think, and I write the same way I talk. If you want to listen to Mongo from Blazing Saddles, be my guest, with my sincere blessings.
But if your concupiscence for the common tongue of the KJV makes you yearn to wot that and eschew more sumptuous tongues, then I leave you to succor your behemoth, strap on your greaves, habergeon, and brigandine, and verily clasp that leviathan of language unto your bosom, by the dram and cubit, the farthing and the furlong, waning not a whit, and prevail in your taberings, despite all the euraclydons striving against thee, whether for a quaternion or an epoch.
But when you call a word obscure, realize you may be telling us a bit more about yourself than you are about the word itself.
(And you're perhaps aware, more than one commentator has noted the extreme likelihood that no less than William Shakespeare himself had more than a little input into the construction of the KJV. He was not, then or now, known for his lack of writing skill, nor his purely common speech. Yet somehow he packed playhouses, and was patronized by royalty, nobles, and common folk alike, despite the use of terminology far beyond that of the common man in daily use. I dare to presume there's a lesson there.)
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