Nobody is talking about the justification the government used shut down the economy: the health care system will collapse unless we "flatten the curve". It wasn't "people will die unless we do this" - people will die no matter what. Instead, it was to protect the health care system from collapse.
Well, mission accomplished:
Note that we don't know what flattened the curve. The models that projected disaster are full of crap* and so this might just be the normal course of the disease. Note that we don't know exactly how many people really dies from this disease because of sloppy record keeping. There are tons of co-morbidities and a death often gets chalked up to the virus when the patient was on Death's Door anyway. The data is not great, and you don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to wonder if the Powers That Be at CDC are shifting into ass covering mode and fiddling the data. It wouldn't be the first time that data got "adjusted" to suit political purposes.
At the end of the day, what will protect sick people from this virus is herd immunity. We don't even know how many people have had this and recovered, because the CDC screwed up the test kits and we aren't systematically testing the population. However, it looks like the number of recovered is much, much higher than predicted (remember - the models are crap). The key metric now has shifted from Hospital Bed Usage to Percent Recovered.
So it's time to declare victory. We can't increase the number of recovered fast if everyone is under house arrest.
And quite frankly, enough damage has been done to the people of this country. 80% of restaurant owners polled are unsure if they will survive until things return to normal. 23M people are out of work, just in this country. Enough.
But we're not done. We're seeing that the fascist instinct is alive and well at all levels of government. I won't bother with exhaustive links, but people getting tickets when they are in their cars in their church parking lot, Chicago closing hair salons except for the Mayor, and New Jersey claiming that political protests are illegal are just a few examples. The government has gotten a taste of power, and likes it.
I don't often disagree with Aesop, but he's entirely wrong in his latest post. The curve has flattened. Sure, reopening might lead to a spike but that's just conjecture. Certainly any models showing this are suspect, based on the crummy track record of previous model projections. And we don't know how many of the deaths would have happened anyway without the virus, but it sure isn't zero.
Lastly, I have to call Godwin. Those of us who are saying we have to reopen the economy aren't the brown shirts. On the contrary, Aesop can drive out to San Clemente to look at the sand filled skate park. There's your fascist, right in your own back yard.
It's not Wall Street that's hurting, it's the small businesses which are the core of the country. These are our neighbors. Their dreams are being crushed. The government said it had to be done to protect the health care system from collapse.
Well, mission accomplished.