1. Romney will continue to ignore conservatives and the Tea Party.
There's little down side in this for him - most conservatives and Tea Party types hate Obama with the fire of a thousand suns, and would gladly crawl across broken glass to vote against him. They're the opposite of the cheerleader dating the dreamy quarterback - they're the cheerleader going out with any old shmoe to get back at the quarterback. I fear that this will not end well for them, but it is what it is.
2. This will not be a blow out election.
Don Surber is calling 40 states for Romney, which is courageous. Not happening, though. Obama is no Mondale, and the symbolism of the first black President will shore up the Democratic base and keep turnout high in African American communities. That gives Obama a starting point of a solid 25% to build on - that's half way to victory. For Romney to win in a landslide he will have to way over-perform with Moderates and Independents. It's possible, but would take a compelling and bold message to do so - "compelling" and "bold" are not adjectives commonly used to describe Mitten's campaign.
3. Obama's fund raising problems will hurt the Democratic down-ticket races.
Remember the Billion Dollars that Obama's campaign used to boast that they'd raise. How's that working out for them? Not go well, actually. Fund raising efforts are way behind projections. Combined with a campaign staff sized suitably for the First Ego, the Obama burn rate is high enough that they have a shockingly low cash on hand balance - actually not much more than Romney. But the First Ego will take his typical "me first" approach, and so promising but poor new Democratic candidates will go begging. Obama has no coat tails, either political or financial.
4. Romney has no coat tails, either.
Sure, he's Mr. Establishment, but he doesn't have star power. He also doesn't have a message beyond "vote for me, my name isn't Barack Obama". As a result, it's hard to see him have the money or the draw to help the Republican down ticket races much. It may not matter much as the Republican base will be energized to vote for "Mr. Not Barack Obama", but they'd vote for Mussolini instead of Obama.
Net/net, Romney will owe the establishment, big time. Congress won't owe (or fear) him much at all. He'll be a weak President the day he takes office.
5. Most voters will make up their mind on the way into the voting booth.
Most people are entirely sensible, in that they''re not political junkies. As such, they'll make up their mind in the last week of the campaign. The Democrats will, as they like to do, try to run some sort of "October Surprise" around Halloween, although since Romney is squeaky clean, it's hard to see what that might be. But polls before mid-October will be essentially only of interest to the political equivalent of sabremetricians.
6. The Media will shamelessly (and hysterically) shill for Obama. Won't matter.
The only people who still trust the media are Obama's base anyway. So the MSM can dial the Obamessiah Love up to 11, and the Romney 2 minutes of hate up to 13, and it won't move the needle. The old days of the media being worth 5-15 points are gone, and not coming back. It's arguable, in fact, that the one sided media love fest actually produces negative results for Democrats, as the whole "Ann Romney never worked a day in her life" kerfuffle suggests. Sure, the comment was idiotic. What's interesting is why a Democrat thought she could get away with saying it. MSM FTW!
7. A Romney Administration will be a disaster for America, for freedom, and for the Republican Party.
There, I said it. That's a post for another day, but all the cheerleaders thinking that dating the President of the Chess Club will "show" that dumb old quarterback need to think how that particular date is likely to end up, and whether they want to end up married to this particular nerd. More on this in a future post.
14 comments:
With the nomination of white Obama, I feel perfectly safe and justified in voting for Gary Johnson (the presumptive Libertarian candidate). But, I live in Texas, so it is a foregone conclusion that white Obama will win this state's votes.
Good compilation, and I think you are correct on all counts!
8. A second Obama Administratin will be a further disaster for America and for freedom.
Choose the form of the Destructor.
Tim, you're assuming that Texas will actually HAVE a primary this year. The Democrats are doing their best to prevent that.
Choosing between the nerdy unattractive chess club president and the High School QB who beats the shit out of you every chance he gets. I'll have door number 3 please.
"most conservatives and Tea Party types hate Obama with the fire of a thousand suns, and would gladly crawl across broken glass to vote against him."
NazzoFast there. I might well not vote for him either way. Not sure who I'll vote for, but looking at the way congress is shaping up, it might well be that we'd be better off with Obama in the White House and a non compliant congress in place, than Rommney with a compliant senate.
And if we keep holding our noses and voting for the establishment candidate, we are just gonna get more of the same shit. Shit is shit, no matter which type of cracker they serve it to us on.
And if you think that Romney is going to be an improvement on Obama, then you are a fool. He'll just be "less Liberal". He'll appoint slightly less liberal judges to the SC, but not conservatives.
We'll just end up with a sandwich with less shit, but it'll still be a shit sandwich. Voting for the GOP candidate won't change much, if anything. Perhaps we'd be better if we take our lumps for 4 years, and send a message that we need a real conservative, not the guy whose turn it is. There is a reason that Romney wasn't the candidate last time, and those reasons are still there today.
The GOP needs to get their heads out.
I predict that Romney will lose anyway.
Ted, have you even mentioned any men or women that you would be willing to support for President? All I've read at the blogs I visit is variations on I won't vote for Romney, he's too like Obama, I won't vote for Ron Paul, he's too crazy. Damnit, then, who is this paragon of conservative virtue who has been eliminated/sat out the race? Name him/her.
Is it bad that I'm thoroughly enjoying the Obama-eats-dog story today? I personally am much more likely to eat dog (or cat) in Asia than strap one to my roof, but the cauterwauling from The Usual Suspects is an absolute JOY to behold.
Kevin, the disaster is assured no matter what. I will post on that (probably) tomorrow.
Lissa, there's a side of schadenfreude served with that dog, that's for sure.
My money is on Romney being accused allegedly and not at all true in a million years of having a gay lover who may or may not turn out to be the leader of a large country in the Western hemisphere and may or may not have been born there allegedly.
Simple question: Which is likely to be the smaller disaster for your kids?
It's fun to say "Well, that's it, I think both candidates are a load of hooey so I'm going to vote for the one that destroy this country faster so we can rebuild it after that."
And then you realize it'll be your kids and your grandkids that will have to pay for what you've done. You're not going to have the "pleasure" of rebuilding a failed society, they are, and speaking as one who lived through a brief bit of quasi-anarchy in Ecuador 20 years ago, IT SUCKS.
If there's a chance, if there's an infinitesimally small chance that Romney will leave the country in better shape than what he found it, that alone is worth my support, because I know his opponent is only concerned about sharing my wealth with his unelected cronies.
Well, I see we've gone from "Vote for Mittens or the Republic gets it" to "Vote for Mittens or your kids get it."
Still writing in Ron Paul, unless Mittens gives the right seat to Rand Paul or maybe DeMint or somebody like that.
PS -- I have two young sons. Fiat justitia, ruat caelum aren't just words in a dead language. That's what I want them to know. I'll be swinging a pickaxe beside them while there's breath in my body.
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