Saturday, September 24, 2022

Prediction is hard, especially about the future

And especially if you're trying to predict a hurricane's track.

Divemedic has a great series of posts up about hurricane preparedness (this post will lead you to the others).  He sounds ready.

The Queen Of The World and I are ready, too, although I'll get another 5 gallons of gas for the generator tomorrow.  We have some things that Divemedic didn't include on his list.  For example, a Homer Bucket (5 gallon orange bucket from Home Depot) with a toilet seat and some cat litter makes a makeshift toilet.  Hope we don't need that one, but it's not a bad idea - although Divemedic's idea of filling the bath tub for toilet flush water will be plan #1 ...

But he also points out that predicting the track of a hurricane is not the most accurate science.  We're keeping our eyes on the forecast, and it's changing multiple times a day:

  • At 11:00, Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 80 mph (exciting!)
  • At 2:00, Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 45 mph (not so exciting)
  • Now (6:00), Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 25 mph (not exciting at all)

I don't mind if the storm track moves away from us, but there's no reason it can't move back again.  We both are pretty confident that we can ride this out if it does, and the running around earlier was time well spent.

But Divemedic's post is today's must-read if you're anywhere near the southeast.


Fredrick said...

Now if it were to be Hurricane Joe I would be worried, but having lived here for years I expect a snoozer. Not that I won't keep the tank full and get out bag ready. Don't wait too long to hit the atm. Cash is king....

Ratus said...

I like this YouTube channel for storm analysis.

He was very good during the last couple of seasons.

But anything more than a couple of days out is more a WAG than anything else.

LindaG said...

Praying a good outcome for you all.

danielbarger said...

They can't tell you where this hurricane will be 48 hours from now
but can say with 100% certainty what the climate will be like decades
from now. Yeah....Right.

ambisinistral said...

This area doesn't get hit by hurricanes very often. They usually start by predicting them to make landfall around Fort Meyers, and the predicted track generally moves west as time passes. Right now it is passing through the Big Bend area.

I hope it misses us entirely -- save money on having to pull my boat that way.

Maniac said...

+1 on Daniel's post.

Ken said...

That headline a Yogi Berra-ism? 0_o

JaimeInTexas said...

Instead of filling the bathtub, which may slow leak, put 1 or 2 plastic trash cans in the tub, line them with trash bags and fill them with water and keep a gallon bucket next to them. Not only can they be used for the toilet, use the bucket to flush, btw, the water is drinkable.
I use 55 gal trash cans.
After the emergency, use the remaining water to fill up the toilet tank until the trash cans are empty. No need tobwate the water.

ASM826 said...

Use Saran Wrap and duct tape to cover and seal the bathtub drain. No tub stopper really seals all that well. If the eye is coming directly at your location, bail and run. If it's a glancing hit with intermediate wind, you should be fine.