There is a *ton* of propaganda about what's happening in Ukraine right now, maybe 80% of it from the Ukranian side. This makes it hard to know what is actually, you know, happening there. This is a very long and very interesting analysis of (a) current situation, (b) Ukraine.Gov motives, (c) Russia.Gov motives, and (d) US.Gov/NATO motives.
And this part seems to me to hit center mass:
In my analysis, the Ukrainians are mass mobilizing their civilian population to use them as human shields, and then parade their bodies on Western media. These forces will be poorly armed and trained, and have little military usefulness. They will make it more costly for Russian forces to enter Ukrainian cities, but as I mentioned previously, the Russian solution to this problem is the simply level the city. In the end, all of these armed civilians will die, their cities destroyed, with nothing gained. I believe this is in fact the goal of the Ukrainian leadership, who are being cheered on towards this end either consciously or not by Americans and other Westerners. I think Ukrainian leadership is hoping for Russia to flattened cities and inflict mass deaths among the civilian population for PR purposes. With their mass mobilization of urban populations, the Ukrainian leadership is putting the Russian forces in a similar position that Hamas puts Israel’s IDF in. What Hamas does, is hide their forces in dense urban centers from where they stage attacks on Israel. The Israelis are faced with a dilemma, either they tolerate Hamas’s attacks, or they shoot back which will inevitably inflict civilian casualties. The Palestinians in turn show dead civilians and destroyed building on Western news media with the intention of ruining Israel’s international reputation. Both Hamas and Ukraine are using their civilians as human shields. Civilians throwing Molotov cocktails at Russian tanks will achieve nothing, other than getting themselves killed. This should be obvious. As America is weaponizing its “cancel culture” for foreign policy objectives, Russia will be endless maligned in Western media if the Ukrainian strategy succeeds. Personally I find it quite sick that Westerners are cheering the Ukrainians on with this strategy. What they are doing, whether consciously or not, is to sacrifice endless Ukrainian lives all for a narrative to be built of Ukrainian martyrdom.
Take a half hour to read the whole thing which is best described as (ahem) Borepatchian in length. Or maybe even longer. But there's a ton of food for thought, at least for folks who don't appreciate being manipulated by increasingly transparent propaganda.
And when I say "increasingly transparent propaganda" I really, really mean increasingly transparent propaganda. For example, the "New York Times" journalist who was just killed. The headline?
BREAKING: Award-Winning AMERICAN Filmmaker and Journalist Shot Dead By Russian Troops...Here Are The DetailsDaily Mail reports – Initially, he was thought to have been on assignment for The New York Times because he was carrying a press badge that listed the newspaper as his publication but it has since emerged he was working on a global film about refugees.
18 comments:
A very interesting read. This part stood out to me: "Westerners are effectively religious fanatics without any fixed religion per say, and instead their moralism is directed towards whatever is trending in the news or whatever is relevant to them for professional or political purposes. Even at the academic level, often analysis of contemporary political and international events is nothing more than moral platitudes with supporting facts."
I am more interested in the war at home, for the souls of Americans, than at the one the media are putting on for us. The writer of this piece has described the virtue signaling of the Death Cult pretty accurately.
My question to all those people decrying the likely civilian casualties from Ukraine's strategy is what do you propose instead presuming that you were a Ukrainian patriot who had no desire to be ruled from Moscow. Because yes there will obviously be lots of destruction and civilian casualties. And yes that sucks. But the alternative seems to be to roll over and let Putin rule. And if you say well that's better for Ukraine, ask yourself if you would be saying the same thing if Russia invaded your country?
The only way to defeat Russia (short of intervention by the US/Nato) is to bog them down in street fighting and hit their logistics while doing so. That's what the Ukrainians are doing. And they are also broadcasting how bad that is to the rest of the world because they can. But the fault is that of the invaders. When Hamas & co engage Israel it is Hamas attacking first and then using the Gaza strip civilians as human shields against the response. The Ukrainians are fighting in defense.
And yes I know Ukraine is a horribly corrupt and poorly governed country. So is Russia. So are all of the other nations in that neck of the woods. However it seems very clear to me from the revealed preferences of the actions of millions of Ukrainians, that very many (most? the overwhelming majority?) of them absolutely do not want to be ruled by Moscow again and are willing to fight for that. Very few seem willing to collaborate with the Russian invaders, on the other hand. Given that Russia is the side that logic suggests will win, that looks a lot like patriotism.
I've been saying this since day one that the Ukraine government is pulling a Hamas on its people. Using their deaths to get international sympathy.
Got me blocked by quite a few people because somehow it still is the highest honor to die for his country, even if it is horribly corrupt, sold it's national wealth to foreign corrupt politicians and kept its people poor despite massive natural resources. Ukraines GDP per capita is on rank 112 and the only European country worth off is Moldova.
What about the people not wanting to live under Russian rule? Live to fight another day. Get killed like 2 days after volunteering because the government that DOES NOT CARE FOR YOU puts your untrained ass into frontline service is not "patriotic", it's stupid.
And creating strong points in populated civilian structures or centers is the antithesis of patriotism because it gets your people killed - what good is the love for an uninhabited country?
The Russian tried to keep civilian casualties down when they invaded. Now they are shelling urban areas because of the resistance they are facing in the cities. Gee, what a genius tactic to defend your people.
They had DECADES of preparing for this EXACT SAME situation and instead of fortifying the country they were reduced to putting irregulars into battle on day one. Not support duties, frontline service.
What Francis said.
This isn't "pulling a Hamas". It's letting citizens contribute to the defense of their country. Hamas hides missiles in schools. Ukraine hands citizens weapons. There is a fundamental difference.
I appreciated the article, because it presents a view of the Russian advance I hadn't otherwise seen. Most people seem to believe fully in the "decapitation strike", and the Russia failed to plan for other possibilities.
Regardless, it is clear that Russia has stuck its military into a meat grinder. If they go into the cities, they will suffer horrendous losses from the armed civilians. The question remains: what level of losses is Russia willing to accept?
The thing is Francis, that Putin wants a deal, he doesn’t want to fight. If he did, the war would have been over already and there would be mass executions of the last civilian terrorists and guerrilla fighters.
This is a fight between three groups of oligarchs: ours, the Ukes, and the Russians. And the same idiots that got stampeded into the Covid scam. Speaking of which… Aesop should be along any moment now to properly accuse us and our esteemed blog host of sedition and treason….😂👍 Other than those guys, there is nothing to win in the Ukraine, and much to lose.
It IS interesting though; there s 150 million cell phones with near complete connectivity in the region… and remarkably little “unofficial” news.
I agree with Glen.
Putin wants NATO to back down on it's growth and aggressiveness, US to quit building bio-labs on the border and the Nazis and corrupt Ukrainian "government" to stop killing Russian speaking civilians. (Yes he is an asshole dictator with nukes, but we are also ruled by asshole dictators with nukes...)
The current mess in the Ukraine is mostly an issue of US meddling and corruption. How many millions in kickbacks did the Dems get for causing two coups, training Nazis and sending billions in aid? Now another 16 billion and more arms. (Nothing for our border, we pay people to invade us...)
Speaking of Aesop, he was so gung-ho to lead the charge to take back the United States before the January 6th bullshit, I thought he would be in jail by now.
The only reason the public cares about Ukraine is that is the Democratic slush fund, a pawn piece in the New World Order and full of white people, Plus it makes for a great distraction from the fucking disaster that was Covid and the "vax". (Seriously, check out the origins of the virus, it leads back to the US. Also the damn documents from Pfizer that are being released.)
I have been more understanding than most of Russian motives and completely disgusted by how many conservatives have fallen for the MSM/Deep State narrative after they have lied to us for years about everything.
However, I do think this piece is off base on the motivations of the Ukrainian leadership. Rather than a Gotterdammerung complex, I suggest three alternatives. First, is the possibility they expect that their quite effective propaganda campaign will lead to NATO being the white knight. So far the results have been mixed. Lots of weapons and trying to hurt Russia economically but no direct intervention. Second, their assessment may be that Russia cannot sustain the invasion, militarily, economically, or politically and will give it up if Ukraine can hold on long enough. Third, it may be simple incompetence. A career as a stand-up comic is not exactly prime preparation for this.
Like hell he "doesn't want" it. Putin started the fight. Stevie Wonder could see that from space, FFS.
The bigger question is, why the dearth of Russian victory footage, if they're doing so well?
Did the world champions of state-sponsored agit-prop forget how to do it?
Or is there a dearth of it, because they're getting their asses handed to them on a platter by the Ukrainians, which is why the Russians have to ask for help from China and Syria?
Syria? The guys Israel surrounded and defeated 50 years ago, and who haven't gotten any better in the interim?!?
Smoke doesn't always equal a fire.
But you never have a fire with no smoke.
The Russians don't have anything they can even fake into ersatz good news.
It's b.s and bad news for them, all the way to the bottom of the abyss.
You don't have to believe or disbelieve the news.
But you can't mistake the deafening silence from Russia for anything but the echoes of a massive thundering catastrophic failure of their forces.
This isn't 1970. They don't have boundless supplies of tanks, APCs, fuel, rockets, shells, and manpower.
They're burning their army to the ground, and the ones they've sent are their A-team. And they're getting beaten to a bloody pulp by a little league militia with Javelins and Stingers.
Well, that is the thing isn't it Aesop? You believe what you read. And your predisposition to panic does the rest. You mistakenly assume the press is giving you all the info, when it is obvious to anyone with a triple digit IQ that those guys are withholding info and lying through their teeth to drive an agenda.
Tell me, General: what are you going to win in this potential war with Russia? NATO already has Russia surrounded. The the trade war is costing EVERYONE and other than a few isolated billionaires - we are all paying through the nose for it. Don't tell me you are fighting for the freedom of the Ukraine - Zelensky is a US installed finger puppet for the Bidens, the Kerry's, the Pelosi's and for Mitt. There are almost certainly others involved in that. Surely even you can see the conflict of interest in it? For some reason I am seeing a lot of rotten wood burning between your ears... but no smoke! HAR HAR HAR!!! How does he do it???
You DO make an excellent point about the lack of propaganda from the Russians. Obviously any Russian victories are going to be ignored by the media and actively suppressed. Unbeknownst to Aesop... Globohomo has been busted several times with fake pics, scenes from other conflicts, even snippets from video games and running them as real news. Yet the Russians?
Crickets. How to explain that?
My theory is that Putin is one stone cold son of a bitch. He has his boys with their mouths firmly clamped shut. Putin doesn't care one whit about the opinions of gay male nurses, retired/retarded stubfarts, or the howling rage heads of the twitter and facebook mobs. In Russia, you don't cancel the people you dislike, Russia cancels YOU, HAR HAR HAR!!! The disparity in the propaganda might support that...?
Otherwise, it appears what we are seeing here is the classical standard shitlib morality play. First it was the evil islamofascists of the middle east and the forever war required to deal with them. The good guys were us, of course. General Aesop was heroically pledged in support of those, and even I was. Then it was the eeeeevil racist fake plague. General Aesop was a legendary hero of that one too. Now the eeeeeevil Russians are putting on the Gestapo costume - and General Aesop is here to lead us to victory again!
Or WW3. Given his record in past conflicts, I'll pass, I have seen this movie before.
Enjoy the show, everyone! Be sure to stop in and visit the concession for snacks in the lobby!
Aesop: Putin had been telling the US and NATO that Ukraine joining NATO was a red line for Russia.
Zelensky's "we will build nukes" threat was the last straw. Putin started prep for the invasion that day.
Hmmmmmmm....
Perhaps Russia has broken it's silence?
If I don't miss my guess the Ukranian Navy just packed in...
https://tv.gab.com/channel/rt/view/abandoned-in-a-hurry-rt-622f68e6e6234a9cadbf29ee
I am not sure about the reliability of this. The only thing I know about them is that they got kicked off twitter for supposedly passing 'misinformation'. This would certainly fly in the face of the narrative they are trying to sell.
Aesop when you say
"The Russians don't have anything they can even fake into ersatz good news.
It's b.s and bad news for them, all the way to the bottom of the abyss."
I am REMINDED that There is ALSO NOTHING ABOUT THE US TRUCKERS "Protest".
CAN YOU SAY MEDIA BLACKOUT, Aesop?
Propaganda that you WANT TO HEAR Tastes Pretty GOOD doesn't it Aesop?
As I tried to Post this morning on Aesop's site CHINA is playing Both sides of this PROXY War between the USA and Russia.
WE are funding and supplying those EXPENSIVE Weapons SO the Ukrainians can FIGHT TO THE LAST Ukrainian.
OH, did you think those Javelins were FREE? LOL
SNIP A Javelin missile costs about US$175k, and the launcher about twice that. A modern tank, however, costs around US$5m. A novice can learn to use a Javelin in minutes, whereas it takes months to train a tank crew.
OUR Politicians and Deep State is OWNED BY CHINA so they DO their bidding AND BTW MAKE a Lot of Money for their pockets by VOTING Billions of MOAR DEBT on our Children so they can get Kickbacks From Ukraine.
As I posted over at Aesops site we are in ROUND 1 of the Famine Wars and CHINA has over 2 years worth of energy and food stored, Russia about 1 year from what I can find out about from Barron's and such.
The USA? With our "Just in Time" system and Chinese paid for IDIOTS or Saboteurs in CONgress (Spelling intentional) WE have NO National Food Reserves (grain etc.) Nor energy Independence (THANK you Brandon).
In global politics Russia is the counterbalance of the Chinese-USA situation. Now that China OWNS our Leadership taking Russia OUT means CHINA can Acquire Taiwan as a "Peaceful Business Deal" According to OUR Sock Puppet and thus the USA will not intervene.
Then China owns some 80% of the microchip production in the WORLD.
Sun Tzu would be Proud.
Regarding the Ukrainian's willingness to fight and the way everyone else seems to think they should just roll over, I give you this (via Samizdata)
AFAICT the Ukrainians did what they could to arm themselves after 2014. In 2014 the only stuff they had was 25 year old soviet crap that had been sitting in warehouses and an army that was a) miniscule and b) barely functional. Now could they have done more in 8 years? maybe. But budgets are a thing. Thanks to a regular 1 year draft they have in fact now got a couple of hundred thousand reservists who have some training. They have drones that are doing yeoman work. They have ATGMs of various flavors. More to the point that have not given up.
I see some people say Russia was holding back. After the first couple of days I don't think that is the case. What seems more likely is that they just aren't very good. Their airforce has failed to achieve any kind of air superiority. Their communications suck. Their logistics suck. And they are getting little or no support from the Ukrainians they are "liberating from the Nazis", which it seems clear was something they expected.
Thanks for posting this lesson. In all MSM reports, I looked for "What is happening," but got only "Russians are killing civilians," reported by correspondents who seem to believe they are doing a good job when within 50 miles of any fighting.
Michael,
Apparently the Internet doesn't exist for Russia, huh?
You think the entire world blacked out all news from Moscow.
Riiiiiiiight.
Like they could.
China can't shut up its own dissidents one day in 70 years, but you think Moscow can't get a story posted?? Srsly? Have you watched ABCNNBCBS any time in the last 70 years???
And the US truckers fart-in-a-hurricane?
What news were you expecting? It was stillborn dumbassery, overtaken by events. They missed their window by weeks, and turned out to be far less organized than a Three Stooges pie fight, and almost as poorly organized as the genius January 6th protest at the Capitol. Just slightly less-infiltrated.
BTW, if you could learn to post without SHOUTING every OTHER word, And COMING off LIKE someone OFF their MEDS, you'd probably have better luck. Maybe learn the html for italics and bold instead? And links, rather than sheer gainsaying, are a great help. Just saying.
@Glen,
No, I don't believe what *I* read, I believe what no one is seeing, and you still (color me shocked) miss the obvious point:
The dog that barks the loudest is the one not barking at all.
There isn't any Russian good news being shown, and it's overwhelmingly likely the case because there isn't any to show.
An army rompy-stomping all over its opponent has no dearth of victorious moments. Russia has none. Zip. Zilch. Nada.
An army conquering all foes and driving them before it like Genghis Khan doesn't send pleas for help to its frequent enemy, and its weakling vassal. Those are both acts of utter desperation.
Nobody in the media is mis-telling or spiking that story. The silence is doing it. It's like looking for a blackhole: when all the light is sucked in, you've found it. Russia is defaulting to to its standard m.o.: shell everything, and hope their enemy runs out of morale before they run out of ammo and troops. Unfortunately, the news that Russia is losing that gamble is getting out in spades. And the total lack of real progress after the initial invasion can't be hidden.
"Win" this war? Putin's a pariah, and Russia is more isolated than it was in 1953. He's already decimated half his own meager army, in return for economic ruin. When your enemy is making a strategic blunder, you stay out of his way. And we should, and are. I would have though even a field marshal or your caliber would be familiar with that axiom.
So keep posting your ad hominems and outgassing, since it's all you've ever got. Evidentiary support, not so much. Your gainsaying ("Putin's winning, because there's literally no proof Putin's winning!") is just an anemometer mounted to your own keyboard.
But "Putin is stoicly withholding all good news, because Russian 49D chess, and the worldwide squelching of all that fabulous Russian victorious war news"?!? As if we had the press we had in 1940? On a worldwide internet that can't even shut you up? Genius, man. Now do the ones about the Loch Ness Monster and the Easter Bunny!
You seem to be so busy jumping to conclusions and explaining things via remote phrenology, you can't think one step outside your own mental box. Grow your own mind a little, if only for the novelty, instead of futile efforts to get inside anyone else's.
Unless you were auditioning for the part of comedy relief.
Time will tell Aesop
@ Francis Turner:
"But the alternative seems to be to roll over and let Putin rule. And if you say well that's better for Ukraine, ask yourself if you would be saying the same thing if Russia invaded your country?"
(Looks at the collection of criminals, pedophiles and mentally ill cretins currently ruling America)
I, for one, welcome our new Russian overlords...!!
Every day the news tells us how terribly the Russians are doing, and how well the Ukrainians are defending their country.
And every day, the map shows the Russians advancing further and further into Ukraine. They now control over a third of Ukraine, and have surrounded the cream of the Ukrainian army. Yes, the action around the major cities is relatively slow. Sieges are like that. Sieges are how you keep from pissing your army away in pointless urban assaults. (Please note that with remarkably few exceptions, cities do not grow food, and have vast numbers of bellies to feed. Also note that the Russians have not yet turned off the lights or shut down the water and sewage plants.)
Learn from this. Remember what didn't work. Remember what did. This will all be on the test later.
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