Here we go again. Not, this isn't the "Hottest Year Ever"

They keep saying this every year, and I keep saying what I say every year.  First, what they say:

July was “a wild weather month,” setting a record as the warmest month ever for the contiguous United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.

Temperatures last month averaged 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit as above-average warmth blanketed the U.S., and several locations in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Montana saw all-time high temperature records since NOAA started keeping track in 1895.

Last month was 0.1 to 0.2 degrees warmer than July 1936 and July 2012, according to the agency. July also broke the record for the average low temperature, at 64.2 degrees, surpassing July 2022 by 0.7 degrees. 

 Notice how slippery this report is: several locations in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Montana saw all-time high temperature records.  So what about the State high temperature records for those locations?  And this is where I say what I've been saying for like a decade or more:

You want to see a real heat wave?  Look at July 1936.  Eleven States set high temperature records that stand to this day.  That Wikipedia page is a little shifty on this, trying to hide the decline in record temperatures.  You'll see an asterisk next to South Dakota, which the Wiki page says means Also on earlier date or dates in that state.  So what was that earlier date for South Dakota?  July 1936.

Oh, and three more States set high temperature records the next month, August 1936.  That makes 14 out of the 50 States suffered record high temperatures in the summer of 1936.  That's almost 30% of the States.

Everyone is shifty on climate data.  So what gives?  It's the old expression from Statistics: if you torture the data enough, it will confess to anything.  Here's how they torture the data:

The reported warming trend appears to be driven mainly by rising nighttime low temperatures. Because climate “averages” combine daytime highs and nighttime lows, warmer nights can make the overall average look higher even when daytime high temperatures do not show the same increase.

...

NOAA adjusts older weather-station records to account for non-climate changes, such as stations moving, equipment changing, or observers recording temperatures at different times of day. Its Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm (PHA) compares a station with nearby stations to identify and correct apparent breaks in the record. 

Remember, they adjust the measured ("raw") temperatures, but they don't adjust the record temperatures (because that would be way too shifty).  So (as I've been posting for years), how much of the 20th Century's warming is from adjustments?  It's 80%: 

An interesting question is how much of the 20th Century's warming came from adjustments, rather than from raw data? A picture is worth a thousand words:
What you're looking at is the annual adjustment made to the raw temperature, for each year in the 20th Century. You'll notice that almost no adjustments are made to years up to 1960, and then a very interesting shape appears in the graph.

A hockey Stick.

And what Science®-denying Tea-Bagging place did I get that?  From the Fed.Gov's weathermen, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

So the data are fiddled to the point that over 80% of the reported warming cannot be found in the data as recorded.  Its in the adjustments to the data after the fact.

And so we're left with three observations:

1. The reported data are fiddled and are untrustworthy.
2. The record data are not fiddled and are trustworthy.
3. It's summer.  It's hot, hot, hot ...

Hey, Bustah!

Dad Joke CCCLV

Stephen emails a dad joke appropriate for the Florida summer weather:

I saw where the meteorologist who invented the ‘feels like’ temperature had passed away. He was 80… but felt like 94. 

Actually, 80/94 would be a big improvement on the current 96/119 (!).  Florida, amirite? 

 

Update: 

Here's what it "feels like" to walk out into the southern sun at midday. 

 

The weather for today: holy cow

 

Remember, it's Florida, which means the humidity is off the charts.  Sing it, Buster ,,,
 

Florida Man lives in my neighborhood?

Sumd00d posted to the neighborhood Facebook group, recommending that people prepare their lanai screen for the high winds by cutting them.

[blink] [blink]

That's some righteous hurricane prep, right there [rolls eyes so hard you can hear it over the hurricane]

My thought is why not open all your windows to keep the wind from blowing them out, amirite?  Sheesh.

Hurricane memes

They're funny because they're true ...

 

Dear God: it would be OK to let this hurricane season be over ...

 

That dot that says "M" on Wednesday at 7PM?  Yeah, that's right over my house.  They're calling for Cat 4 and a 12 foot tidal surge.  We're on moderately high ground - if we flood then 80% of Florida is basically gone, but the folks on the barrier islands are looking at a fresh hell coming at them.

As is Joint Base McDill.  Maybe if it hits there the military can get some quicker rescue going when it hits there than they did in North Carolina.  Yes, that's pretty nasty to write.  The fact that you can write that is even nastier, IMHO.

This seems to be a useful site, if you're on the water:

I give NOAA a lot of flak for their climate change nonsense, but this is exactly what you would want from a world class national weather bureau.  The model may be wrong - all models are - but the fact that the tidal surge arrives at high tide is no bueno for McDill.  I hope they are taking action, and I hope that people along the water are evacuating.

Lord Almighty, what a hurricane season.

Hurricane thinking

Divemedic has some thoughts that are worth your time.  The Silicon Graybeard does his preps.  We're battened down for the fifth storm in the four years we've been here.

Good luck to the folks in the Florida panhandle, who must be getting really sick of all this.

More old climate records

When we point out that things aren't as hot as expected (predictions of 5 or more degrees increase being more like half a degree), we are told that the climate is changing in a way that we will experience more extremes.  The problem is that we're not seeing these extremes.  Case in point, the Great Blue Norther of 1911:

On November 11, temperatures in Kansas City had reached a record high of 76 °F (24 °C) by late morning before the front moved through. As the cold front approached, the winds increased turning from southeast to northwest. By midnight, the temperature had dropped to 11 °F (−12 °C), a 65 °F (36 °C) difference in 14 hours.[5] The next day would have a record low of 6 °F (−14 °C) and a high of only 21 °F (−6 °C).[10] In Springfield, the temperature difference was even more extreme. Springfield was at 80 °F (27 °C) at about 3:45 p.m. CST (21:45 UTC), before the cold front moved through. Fifteen minutes later, the temperature was at 40 °F (4 °C) with winds out of the northwest at 40 mph (64 km/h). By 7:00 p.m. CST (01:00 UTC 12 November) the temperature had dropped a further 20 °F (−7 °C), and by midnight (06:00 UTC), a record low of 13 °F (−11 °C) was established. It was the first time since records had been kept for Springfield when the record high and record low were broken in the same day. The freak temperature difference was also a record breaker: 67 °F (37 °C) in 10 hours.

And it wasn't just Kansas City, it was all over - Tulsa, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Peoria, Columbus, Lexington KY.  So these records are really old.  If the climate were getting more susceptible to extreme weather events, where are the new records?

It's almost like what you read in the Press is biased or something.

Weather, not Climate - special Halloween edition

This is a scary Halloween post - scary for people who believe in Global Warming, anyway.  I've posted for years and years about how the temperature data is adjusted to show warming that is not seen in the recorded data.  I've also posted about how temperature records cannot be adjusted, and are an uncomfortable topic for global warmers to explain - for example, if world climate is getting hotter, why is the highest recorded temperature in the USA from 1913?

Well here is another example of that, from Halloween 100 years ago.  From the Wikipedia article about the town of Marble Bar, Australia:

The town set a world record of most consecutive days of 100 °F (37.8 °C) or above, during a period of 160 days from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924.

That's almost half a year over 100 °F.  you'd think that if the world were warming you would see a longer consecutive hot streak, but you don't.  So this must be an example of weather, not climate.  You remember the difference, don't you?

Weather: a local condition unrelated to global climate.

Climate: anything that proves Global Warming.

The weather for today ...

... man, it's hot.  Hey, at least it's a dry Florida heat, amirite? (/sarcasm)

Where has all the warming gone?

We are told that the reason that we don't see new record high temperatures despite the global climate getting hotter is that the winters are getting warmer while the summers are not.  Unfortunately for this explanation, this doesn't seem to be the case. Tokyo winters have been getting colder for 40 years: 

Tokyo winters have been cooling since 1984

With all the news about global warming, surely the decades long winter-trend for the city of Tokyo must be one of strong warming. Yet, looking at the mean DJF winter temperature trend for Tokyo going back 39 years using the untampered data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), we see a trend that has to surprise the global warming bedwetting dolts:

Data source: JMA. 

I seem to be repeating this message - I posted about this last year.  But "hottest year ever!"  Yawn.

How Florida recovered from Hurricane Ian so quickly

These linemen are restoring power to Sanibel Island.

Shock and awe.  

Spotted by The Queen Of The World.

Prediction is hard, especially about the future

And especially if you're trying to predict a hurricane's track.

Divemedic has a great series of posts up about hurricane preparedness (this post will lead you to the others).  He sounds ready.

The Queen Of The World and I are ready, too, although I'll get another 5 gallons of gas for the generator tomorrow.  We have some things that Divemedic didn't include on his list.  For example, a Homer Bucket (5 gallon orange bucket from Home Depot) with a toilet seat and some cat litter makes a makeshift toilet.  Hope we don't need that one, but it's not a bad idea - although Divemedic's idea of filling the bath tub for toilet flush water will be plan #1 ...

But he also points out that predicting the track of a hurricane is not the most accurate science.  We're keeping our eyes on the forecast, and it's changing multiple times a day:

• At 11:00, Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 80 mph (exciting!)
• At 2:00, Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 45 mph (not so exciting)
• Now (6:00), Weather Underground said maximum wind speed on Wednesday for our location would be 25 mph (not exciting at all)

I don't mind if the storm track moves away from us, but there's no reason it can't move back again.  We both are pretty confident that we can ride this out if it does, and the running around earlier was time well spent.

But Divemedic's post is today's must-read if you're anywhere near the southeast.

Man, it was cold this morning

 It was maybe even colder than that.  Maybe.  And yes, it does look like the bottom picture.

Don't blame me, The Queen Of The World found this.

Global Warming is coming early this winter

27" of snow in South Dakota. It closed I-90.

Damn Global Warming!  CAN'T IT WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER?

Fed.Gov: Summer of 2021 was hotter than the Summer of 1936

This may seem like an innocuous statement, but this all actually encapsulates the Climate Bullshit perfectly.  First, the government's statement:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed in a new report that the average temperature during this summer for the contiguous U.S. was hotter than the Dust Bowl in the 1930s.

The meteorological summer between June 1 to Sept. 1 averaged 74F for the U.S., or 2.6 degrees warmer than the long-term average. NOAA said, "this technically exceeds the record heat of the 1936 Dust Bowl Summer, but the difference is extremely small (less than 0.01 of a degree F)."

Remember the Dust Bowl?  John Steinbeck and Henry Fonda sort of made it memorable:

1936 is the year of record heat in the United States.  There's a reason that the midwest dried up and blew away that summer:

You want to see a real heat wave?  Look at July 1936.  Eleven States set high temperature records that stand to this day.  That Wikipedia page is a little shifty on this, trying to hide the decline in record temperatures.  You'll see an asterisk next to South Dakota, which the Wiki page says means Also on earlier date or dates in that state.  So what was that earlier date for South Dakota?  July 1936.

Oh, and three more States set high temperature records the next month, August 1936.  That makes 14 out of the 50 States suffered record high temperatures in the summer of 1936. That's almost 30% of the States.

NOAA (the Fed.Gov's weather bureau) said that this summer was hotter than that.  Oooooh kaaaaay.  So riddle me this, WeatherMan: how many States set temperature records this summer?  One.  Washington State set a record high on June 29.

Not fourteen.

So how does NOAA get off saying that 2021 was hotter than 1936?  Data adjustments:

The data have two components: the raw measurements themselves, and a set of adjustments.

Adjustments are made for a bunch of reasons: time of observation adjustments (you didn't take a reading at exactly the same time each day), environmental changes, weather station site relocations, urbanization, etc.

An interesting question is how much of the 20th century's temperature change is due to adjustments? As it turns out, the answer is all of it.

This chart shows the before-adjustment and after-adjustment temperatures for the 20th century, super imposed. All of the warming is due to adjustments, rather than raw data.  Almost all of the adjustments are for readings after 1970.

Take a look at the blue (unadjusted) line in the middle of the chart.  You know, at the peak.  That's the Dust Bowl heat wave of 1936.  Now look at the far right, how the data shift down (unadjusted) and up (adjusted).

How do you make 2021 hotter than 1936?  Change the data.  Older temperatures are adjusted downwards, and newer temperatures are adjusted upwards.  Presto - Global Warming Climate Change Climate Emergency!

Now all of this is no doubt full of Science® and all that, but if you get a whiff of bullshit, you're not the only one. You know what data don't get adjusted? Records. 1936 set 14 records, 2021 set only a single one.

That's some righteous Science®, right there. But hey, no doubt Climate Scientists are well compensated for their work, if they produce the Approved Results.

Weather forecast: Hot, hot, hot!

Just remember: fourteen states set high temperature records in July and August of 1934.  Two states have set high temperature records in the last ten years (while three set low temperature records in the same period).

My forecast: no new state wide high records will be set in the next month, despite all the excited chatter that you'll hear.

But that doesn't change the fact that it will be hot, hot, hot.  Hey Bustah!

The SJWs are about to de-platform Mother Nature

Funny how the media is simply ignoring what's starting out as a brutal winter.  It's not just here in North America, either; Europe is being smothered under record showfall.  We're only a day into winter, so there's lots of opportunity for more.

How's that Global Warming working out for ya?

Every year is the Hottest Year Ever®, at least it seems this way because the press reports it that way.  I've posted often about how this is only because the temperature record is changed, increasing recent temperatures - thus, the string of Hottest Year Ever®

But the record temperatures - both high and low - are not adjusted.  We haven't seen a record high temperature set in any of the fifty States in over 20 years despite the run of reported Hottest Year Ever®.  Well, we're told, what's happening is that the Greenhouse Effect raises the temperature in the winter (and at night), so average temperature is increasing.  But remember, the night and winter temperatures are also adjusted.  So what's going on with the record winter temperatures?

Boy, howdy:

Record lows were reported this morning from Birmingham, Alabama, to Burlington, Vermont, from New York City to Detroit, from Wichita to St. Louis, From Atlanta to Ohio. Birmingham’s low of 18F shattered the previous record of 22F set in 1911.

New York City and Buffalo, New York, as well as parts of Ohio set new cold records. In Kansas alone, at least six cities, including Wichita, set cold records for the date on Tuesday.

In Missouri, St. Louis dropped to 11F, breaking a record for the date that had stood for more than 100 years.

Meanwhile, the entire state of Alabama was under a freeze warning as temperatures dipped into the 20s and below, breaking records at more than 100 locations.

Record-challenging low temperatures were everywhere. Single-digit temperatures descended on much of the Midwest, where Detroit sank to 7F, shattering the old record of 12F for the day.

And remember all the record cold temperatures last winter?  This isn't a "weather not climate" incident, unless the climate serves up record freezing each year as "normal weather" - which you could just as well call "climate".

Record temperatures aren't adjusted, remember?  After a century of ZOMG Warming, should it even be possible for this many cold records to be set?  Or maybe the adjustments aren't being done right.  Maybe changing data after it is recorded is an opportunity for all sorts of mischief, or incompetence.

Oh, and a note: these aren't daily records.  They're records for the month of November:

Record-low temperatures from Texas to Maine. Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan set records not only for the day, but for the entire month of November, according to forecasters.

At least eight deaths have been blamed on a record-breaking cold spellthat still had its grip on much of the country Wednesday morning.

The National Weather Service said the cold front brought a level of intensity not seen since 1911, more than 100 years ago.

And this is a reminder that in record heat people are uncomfortable; in record cold they die.

Anne Murray - Snowbird

Today the local Harley Owners Group cleaned up trash along one of the county roads as part of the "Adopt-a-Highway" program.  We got a lot - 14 big bags in half a mile or so - which is a sad indictment of the local drivers.

But it was 33° at 8:00 this morning.  Two days ago it was 70°.  Winter is coming.

Who better to sing about winter than a Canadian, eh?  And who better to represent Canadian country music than Anne Murray - who I was somewhat astonished to find that I haven't posted even once in eleven years of country music blogging.  I mean, she has four Grammys.  Probably the reason was that she was as much pop as country (one of the Grammys was in the pop category).  But she has more Gold and Platinum albums than you can shake a snow shovel at, and this was her very first hit way back in 1970.

And did I mention that it was cold this morning, and that winter is coming?  Probably already there up in Spring Hill, Nova Scotia where she hails from.  Brrrr.



Snowbird (Songwriter: Gene MacLellan)

Beneath this snowy mantle cold and clean
The unborn grass lies waiting
For its coat to turn to green
The snowbird sings the song he always sings
And speaks to me of flowers
That will bloom again in spring

When I was young
My heart was young then, too
Anything that it would tell me
That's the thing that I would do
But now I feel such emptiness within
For the thing that I want most in life's
The thing that I can't win

Spread your tiny wings and fly away
And take the snow back with you
Where it came from on that day
The one I love forever is untrue
And if I could you know that I would
Fly away with you 

The breeze along the river seems to say
That he'll only break my heart again
Should I decide to stay
So, little snowbird
Take me with you when you go
To that land of gentle breezes
Where the peaceful waters flow

Spread your tiny wings and fly away
And take the snow back with you
Where it came from on that day
The one I love forever is untrue
And if I could you know that I would
Fly away with you

Yeah, if I could I know that I would
Fly away with you