On growing up

It's quite something to watch your child grow up. Much is expected, and comes as no surprise, but much is unexpected. These are the moments that I find more rewarding.

#2 Son is 14. He's not particularly political. But he sent me this:



For those of us who swing libertarian, this sort of thing is the signal, that we have a chance with the next generation. That they can realize that there are a lot of folks who want to prevent them from doing all sorts of things, for their own good.

#2 Son has realized this, and doesn't like it. That he realizes in his gut what the First Amendment means. I think that this is a bright line that he's crossed, and that in a way, will never be a child again, at least not in that way.

Good.

#1 Son's reading list

Atlas Shrugged, 1984, and Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

And no, he didn't get those from me; he got them from his friends. School indoctrination FAIL. Gives me hope for the future, yes indeed.

My suggestion was to add The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress to the list, possibly in place of Atlas Shrugged.

Aaaaarrrrrrrgh, matey! Don't be shivering me timbers ...

Alan's logo for Talk Like A Pirate Day is simply outstanding.

However, last night's Gunblogger get together showed that the choice of iPhone was not just popular, but unanimous.

And thanks to Lissa and Mike for graciously hosting the soirée. And thanks to JayG (the Northeast Gunblogger's Social Secretary) for organizing the whole thing. Excellent time.

Surprise! People like freedom.

Via Insty, we find that 9 of the top 10 states losing tax revenue from out-migration were high-tax, high regulation (intrusive) "blue" states. Louisiana skewed the results because of out-migration after hurricane Katrina. Unsurprisingly, the states gaining are all low tax (or in the case of Florida and Washington, "no tax" - at least for income).

People like freedom. They don't like governments taking their money and telling them how to live. And it's not just here in the USA:

Contrary to those several studies telling us, counter-intuitively, that people aren't made happier by increased economic well-being, there's a report of one study here that puts this in question. Only, it's not economic development all on its own that makes people happier; other things come into it as well:

[A] group of researchers, citing data from 1981 to 2007, says... that happiness rose in 45 of the 52 countries for which extensive data was available, including the U.S., Japan, Spain, France, Germany and Britain.

Furthermore, the cause wasn't income but freedom.

In the researchers' words, "Since 1981, economic development, democratization, and increasing social tolerance have increased the extent to which people perceive that they have free choice, which in turn has led to higher levels of happiness around the world."

What a surprise! You might have thought lack of economic development, political repression, intolerance and lack of choice would really appeal to people and keep them cheery; but apparently not.

Actually, that last sentence just about sums up the Democrat's current problems this election year.

Ray Price - Crazy Arms

Change is hard sometimes, as you find out that those you thought loved you now love someone else. This political season particularly, we've seen a bunch of long-time incumbents voted out by an electorate that has stars in its eyes for someone new.

Country music has a song for that, and has for a long, long time.

Ray Price was Old School country music. Back in the 1950s when everyone else was rushing to rock up their songs like Elvis, he kept that old country sound. Later, he experimented with ballads in the "Nashville Style", as well as Gospel, but his roots run deep. That was good enough to get him a couple of Album Of The Year awards, and a couple of Grammys.

His latest album, Last of the Breed, was a collaboration with Willie Nelson and Merle Haggard. Released in 2007, it's Old School country.

Change is hard. Sometimes it's necessary, though painful. Sometimes no change at all is pretty good, too.



Crazy Arms (Songwriters: Ralph Mooney, Charles Seals)

Now, blue ain't the word for the way that I feel,
There's a storm brewin' in this heart of mine.
This ain't no crazy dream, I know that it's real.
You're someone else's love now, you're not mine!

Crazy arms that seek to hold somebody new,
But my burnin' heart keeps sayin' you're not mine!
My troubled mind knows soon to another you'll be wed,
And that's why I'm lonely all the time.

Please take these treasured dreams I had for you and me,
And take all the love I thought was mine,
This ain't no crazy dream, I know that it's real,
And that's why I'm lonely all the time!

Crazy arms that seek to hold somebody new,
But my burnin' heart keeps sayin' you're not mine!
My troubled mind knows soon to another you'll be wed,
And that's why I'm lonely all the time.

And that's why I'm lonely all the time!

Crazy

So the press is filled with stories about the crazy things some Delaware politician said. Unbelievable stupid, we're told. You can't have someone like that in the Senate, the Press implies.

As a public service to folks who are late to all this, here are some of this pol's crazy, stupid remarks that has the Press in an uproar.

"You cannot go to a 7-11 or a Dunkin' Donuts unless you have a slight Indian accent.... I'm not joking."

See? Or how about this:

"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy. I mean, that's a storybook, man."

You have to be crazy to say something like that these days. Or how about this:



He must have been thinking about all that stem cell research making amazing new medical cures.

See? An idiot Delaware politician. Clearly nobody you'd ever want in the Senate.

Oh, wait - the press isn't in an uproar over this? It's in an uproar over some other Delaware politician's remarks? Must be a Republican. And a woman.

Situational Awareness FAIL

I guess you don't expect your two year old to pick pocket your heater and cap you, but still ...



Seems the dad died. Let's be careful out there.

Seen on Tosh.0.

Friday Follies: Establish Meltdown

Awhile back, I described how the Internet is breaking the "business model" of the current political parties, and how that reshaping of the political landscape is turning a bunch of Old Guard Dinosaurs into losers:

When you hear talk of "teabaggers", or how "dumb" Palin is, or how Brown won "because he stood in the cold shaking hands outside Fenway Park", you know that you're talking to one of the people that the Internet is turning into a loser, as their political business model collapses around them. They'll all be gone in ten years.

Well, add Karl Rove and the Republican Senate Campaign Committee to the list. While their visceral reaction to Christine O'Donnell's primary win in Delaware was quickly retracted, but for a brief, shining moment, we saw their real core. Not especially attractive, and not particularly smart of them to show us.

Robert Stacy McCain tells us how it works:

Let me say a few word about The Backstabbers — not just those faithless former servants who are now disparaging Christine O’Donnell, but the entire category of Republican campaign aides, consultants and operatives who specialize in tearing down their former employers (and each other).

If you really want to know the nature of that hive of scum and villainy, RTWT. Plus, he has a musical interlude which is absolutely superb, and which hits center mass.

Neo-Neocon looks at the emerging pattern:

Take one attractive woman politician on the right.

Dig into every facet of her past, especially quotes related to her Christian religious beliefs.

Mock and revile her, preferably distorting what she said.

In particular, make it seem as though she is intent on legislating those beliefs.

Do it quickly, as soon as the person is nominated, before she has a chance to counter the growing “narrative.”

But she wonders if the people doing this have any credibility. The answer, of course, is "only with their hard-core fellow travelers". As I said earlier, the country looks like it'd be happy to vote for the Village Idiot rather than this lot.

Of course, the Democrats are just as bad, and even more clueless, because they think this trouble that the Republicans are having will actually benefit them. "Follies", indeed. Carteach0 looks at this - what's been said, but more importantly, what hasn't been said, at least publicly:

Career politicians are afraid. Very afraid. At least, the smart ones are, the ones not already lost in an internally generated sea of arrogance, indifference, privilege, and self importance. The politicos who are paying attention and have their eyes open are seeing a ground swell of citizens involvement they can't control and manipulate, and it frightens them badly. They are striking out in terror, turning cannibalistic, and scrabbling at the hard stone walls of the political tombs they never noticed themselves building.

I approve.

Me, too. The Dinosaurs sniff a change on the breeze, and roar their defiance.

The coming electoral rout

The latest polls are very interesting, and are very bad news for the Democrats. Real Clear Politics shows us the current electoral landscape for the Senate races:


There are two things that stand out here. First, eight of the ten competitive races are shifting in favor of the Republican candidate. The Republican doesn't lead in all of these, but the momentum is shifting towards the GOP almost across the board. Second, the two races that show the opposite (gains for the Democrat, even if they aren't necessarily ahead) are the two where the Tea Party candidate beat the GOP Establishment candidate in the primary (Alaska and Delaware).

So what does this mean? First, the Alaska and Delaware polls reflect a disruption to the voter's default state, as a new person they've never paid any attention to is now one of the choices. My prediction is that this will settle down in a couple of weeks as people hear more about them, and as the election gets closer. In other words, the only thing keeping the Democrats from losing momentum across the board is unexpected GOP primary results. This will be temporary.

Second, as we get closer to election day, we'll see more of a shift towards the Republicans. The reason is that the economy is mired firmly in the "double dip" portion of the recession, the Democrats control Washington and Washington is doing nothing that seems like it will help, and the hard core base of the Democratic party is increasingly incensed that their candidates are running away from the hard-left accomplishments of the last two years (ObamaCare in particular). Meanwhile, Republican and Independent voters are champing at the bit to throw the bums out.

Turnout is everything, and looks increasingly to be breaking in the GOP's favor. That means you can likely subtract 2 points from the (D) column and add 2 to the (R) column, and undecideds will break 2:1 for the Republican.

RCP currently shows 44 safe Democrat seats, 3 likely Democrat seats, 2 "Leans Democrat" seats, and 6 "Toss Up" seats. If you factor in the momentum I just described, Connecticut and Washington are probably the only two from the "Leans Democrat" or "Toss Up" categories that will actually go Democrat. That's 49 seats in the (D) column two months from now.

Putting that in perspective, the Democrats will have lost 11 seats between the elections of 2008 and 2010. I can't seem to easily find out where that stands in the annals of electoral routs, but it seems safe to say that it's pretty high on the list.

Mind you, I think that this is A Bad Thing. I think that winning both the House and Senate will give aid and comfort to a clueless Republican leadership, and delay the necessary housecleaning. That housecleaning is inevitable, but we're much better off it it comes early rather than late.

Cap and Trade impact "minuscule" on reducing carbon emissions

This is my shocked face ...

We are now two years into the second Phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and it is already clear that, like Phase I, Phase I I will fail to deliver significant abatement. ...

Even with an aggressive economic recovery, our projections find it unlikely that the Phase I I cap would constrain emissions by more than 32Mt across the full 5 years of the phase (2008-1 2), a meagre 0.3% of the 1 0.5 billion tonnes we expect covered installations to emit across the period.

Silly Think Tank - the point of the Carbon Market is to provide lucrative graft opportunities to Europe's Ruling Class, not to actually, you know, reduce carbon emissions. And not just Europe's Ruling Class. Mission Accomplished.

Hat tip: Roger Pielke, Jr.

We have carefully considered your application ...

... and concluded that you are one crazy ass bitch:

When the owner of a Seattle beauty salon had her application for a loan from the Rainier Valley Community Development Fund denied last year, that was bad enough. When she later received what appeared to be a second rejection letter for the same loan application, she discovered that the reason for her inability to get the loan was that she is a "crazy ass bitch."

This in a letter from her government. You see, they had torn up the street for some sort of boondoggle "improvement" (likely an improvement to some Government Official's cousin's construction business), but had provided grants to businesses impacted by the disruption. Our heroine had a beauty parlor, and most of her clients couldn't get to the shop anymore. And so she applied to her Benevolent Masters Government.

Be sure to click through and RTWT - they have a copy of the letter.

At this point, it's fair to ask what would happen if this were a business that had turned her down this way. The employee responsible would have been dismissed for cause, probably the same day. Instead, what happened at the Government agency?

The letter was the product of the fund's Executive Director, who was subsequently suspended for one week without pay. She also penned a follow-up letter to the applicant in which she apologized for her actions, but stopped short of calling herself a crazy ass bitch ...

An Executive Director is, of course, politically connected. She's still there (you saw the part about "politically connected", right?).

A business that treated its customers would lose clients to other businesses that treated them better. This? If you don't like the service provided by your Government, you can take your business to another Government.

Oh, wait - you can't. No wonder government services stink.

"My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty Leftie-Statists, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

- Percy Bysshe Shelley, Ozymandias

Via The Antiplanner.

That's some righteous marketing

The Democratic Party has a brand new, shiny logo.There, I fixed it for you.

Congratulations to JayG

His odometer just rolled over 1,000,000. Awesome!

Not at all surprising, but awesome.

Your Global Warming Blogging

Not here, since I've been terribly busy traveling and everything. Kind of feel like I'm letting down the team.

But not to worry, DirtCrashr has the latest news, and it's a doozy. Scientists expect sunspots to entirely disappear in the next few years. The last time that happened, the world got colder than it had been since the last glaciation. Go read, because if this is true, things are going to get ugly:

The cold caused incredible crop-losses, and an estimated 75 million deaths worldwide by the Black Plague, a disease spread by a flea parasite (Got DDT anyone? No? Why?) that was benign in its native hot-temperature locale of Africa, but in Europe's cold climate the gut of the flea constricted and caused it insatiable hunger, because no matter the amount of blood ingested, it couldn't swallow it.

The only thing I'd add to DirtCrashr's excellent post is to point out that Nigel Calder explained why sunspots effect the climate. Actually, they don't, but fluxuations in the Sun's magnetic field do, and that effects both sunspots and our climate: Cosmic Rays stimulate cloud formation, which cool the planet. When the sun's magnetic field is more active, it's stronger, and reaches out further into the Solar System, inhibiting Cosmic Rays. Fewer rays, fewer clouds, warmer temperatures.

We're coming out of a period of energetic sunspot formation, which is directly correlated with stronger a solar magnetic field. Sunspots have been dropping for several years, which -surprise! - is precisely the time that we've seen the climate cool.

This is a very interesting hypothesis, because it's directly observable, and 100% subject to falsification: if sunspots go down and temperature goes up in the next 5 years, the hypothesis is wrong. If sunspots drop to zero (as forecast) and the planet continues to cool, that's evidence in favor. The next few years look to be interesting, climate-wise.

And colder. Glad I'm moving south, but I may take my snowblower ...

Seriously - Vote 'em out

The Czar of Muscovy brings The Smart about Christine O'Donnell's Senate campaign in Delaware, and makes a persuasive case that she's loonier than a Canadian Dollar. The Republican Party establishment seems to be having kittens over her win, to the delight of the Democratic Party establishment.

At the risk of causing our Autocrat's cold dread eye to be cast this way, the Borepatch take is that it doesn't matter. 'Puter makes a partial case for this:

Sure, loser Republican establishment candidates like Mike Castle in Delaware and Lisa Murkowski in Alaska are fighting rear guard actions against the party's nominees. This simply proves 'Puter's point that these people deserved to be fired. They lust for power for themselves, not for justice for their constituents.

I would go further. The problem, as I've said, is not the Democrats. The solution is not the Republicans.

The problem is an institutionalized Ruling Class that has increasing contempt for most of the voters in this country.

For all the Republican's talk this election cycle, they still don't Get It. Neither do the Democrats, but that problem's getting fixed no matter what in two months. Let's deal with the Democrats first, because they're easy; then we'll deal with Mike Castle and the Republican Establishment.

The Democrats are going to get pounded in November, and the pounding is going to be worse that anyone is saying right now. The electorate is in a foul mood, the economy continues to tank, and the Democrats - after a spending binge and power grab unprecedented in this Republic's history - won't even talk about their so-called "accomplishments." Democratic voters are demoralized, Republican voters are energized like we've never seen, and disgusted independents are breaking 2 to 1 for Republicans. This defeat will be historic in its proportions.

The defeat will make things much, much worse for the Democratic party. The party's trouble is that it pushed a very left-wing agenda (Obamacare, Cap and Trade, nationalizing the auto industry, huge pork spending to favored clients). The country as a whole is nowhere near accepting these policies, and the reaction is (a) energizing the opposition and (b) splitting off independent support.

However, perhaps two thirds of the Democratic seats are more or less safe, meaning that they are occupied by solid Pelosi-style left wingers. These people will be safe; moderate Democrats may cease to exist come November. The Democratic Party is fixin' to take a massive swing to the left, after an election where they get crushed for being too left wing. So there's no plausible comeback strategy that looks viable. Sic transit idiotes.

The Republicans are a different matter, and much more of a concern to us. What the Democrats lose, the Republicans will gain. The Republican Establishment will say it's because of their program. So what is their program? Basically, it's "Vote for us because we're (slightly) less reckless than the Democrats." Well, phooey to that.

The Republican Establishment is at war with the reform wing of the Republican Party, and with the Tea Parties. The only "program" worth the name is from Rand Paul, who has his finger on the pulse of the independent vote, but is pushing uphill against the old guard. Where's the new Contract With America? Where's the plan? Why should we vote for a bunch of Old Guard loser type like Mike Castle who's champing at the bit to push through Cap and Trade?



Watch this starting about 3:30 into the video. One of Castle's constituents says he should be voted out because of his support for Cap and Trade. The cheers from the crowd are deafening.

This is the sort of candidate that the Republican Establishment wants us to support? But more significantly, why then should we think that the Republican Party is less reckless in its spending than the Democrats? There's a very clear pattern that has emerged in the GOP's support for Castle, Murkowski, et al - support the Usual Suspects, protect their power and privilege, and pay lip service (if that) to actual fiscal reform.

Like I said, phooey.


This November will see the breaking of the Democratic Party, which is half the battle. But everything will come to naught if the Republican Old Guard is not also broken. There is quite frankly no evidence that they will change their old ways unless we break them. Christine O'Donnell may be crazy like a Cat Lady, but she serves the purpose of breaking them. She is particularly useful in this, because it sends the following message:

We'll vote for the Village Idiot before we'll vote for you lot.

Some will say that the Democratic Party is killing this country. I can't argue with that. However, the Republican Establishment is killing the country, too - just a little slower.

Think strategically, not tactically. If we are to die, it's better to go fast than slow. The proper response to the contempt being shown us by the Republican Party Old Guard - vote for us because we suck less than they do - is to return that contempt with interest. Vote 'em out, every Man Jack and Woman Jill. If they're an incumbent, get rid of them.

A Republican Party that loses "safe" seats this November because of this contempt will be shocked into a realignment towards the center of gravity of the body politic. And that will open up room for the reform we'll need to fix things. Voting (R) this November hurts that.


Eyes on the prize, folks. Think Long Game, not short; strategic, not tactical. Our children's future depends on it.

Happy Birthday, #1 Son

He's 18 today. Going to register to vote. It sure is something to see him grown up.

Your children are not your children.
They are the sons and daughters of Life's longing for itself.
They come through you but not from you,
And though they are with you yet they belong not to you.

You may give them your love but not your thoughts,
For they have their own thoughts.
You may house their bodies but not their souls,
For their souls dwell in the house of tomorrow,
which you cannot visit, not even in your dreams.
You may strive to be like them,
but seek not to make them like you.
For life goes not backward nor tarries with yesterday.

You are the bows from which your children
as living arrows are sent forth.
The archer sees the mark upon the path of the infinite,
and He bends you with His might
that His arrows may go swift and far.
Let your bending in the Archer's hand be for gladness;
For even as He loves the arrow that flies,
so He loves also the bow that is stable.

- Kahlil Gibran, On Children, The Prophet

Quote of the day

Seems they asked Carteach0 to give some high school seniors a class on the Constitution. He told 'em that wasn't a really good idea, or what they had in mind, but they told him "Not 'But sir', Yes sir!'"

And so he did, with both barrels. The whole thing should be carved in marble and gilded, but this is the finale:

I also told them.... if they don't know and understand their rights, then they have none, and should shut up and get back to work. Shut up and pay their taxes.

A room full of deer in headlights.

#1 Son and #2 Son have heard this sort of thing from me, enough times that they think it's gotten old. It hasn't. Some day, they'll realize that.

A word of praise for Albuquerque airport

Actually, a few words of praise. With Seattle-Tacoma, it's perhaps the most architecturally interesting/beautiful I've seen. Pueblo style great hall with giant wood beams make for a "We're not in Kansas anymore, Toto" experience.

The TSA seems to be particularly friendly here, each time I fly. They also consistently have a large number of security lanes, so the wait is short and pretty hassle-free, consistently.

And there's free WiFi. I know that all y'all don't go into withdrawal if I don't post every couple of hours (well, I hope you don't). But I sure do ...

It's sure been good to see Mom and Dad, and now their scanner is working (Doubletrouble can vouch for my Tech Support skillz). But mostly just spending time talking of cabbages and kings is good for the soul.

UN IPCC: We really don't know whether our reports are valid or not

The head of the UN's IPCC climate science department, Mr. Pachauri, said in an interview that the IPCC report - you know, the one that's supposed to reflect the state of the science - can't really tell us what's going on. Specifically, the uncertainties are beyond the ability of his team to calculate:

Times of India asks: Anything in the UN probe report you completely or partly disagree with?

They have talked about quantifying uncertainties. To some extent, we are doing that, though not perfectly. But the issue is that in some cases, you really don’t have a quantitative base by which you can attach a probability or a level of uncertainty that defines things in quantitative terms. And there, let’s not take away the importance of expert judgment. And that is something the report has missed or at least not pointed out.

So if you can’t quantify uncertainties (like is climate sensitivity say 0.5 degrees or 6.5 degrees, and with what probabilities) just go with your best guess, call it expert opinion (especially if you only pick and pay the “right” experts) and say that there is a 90% certainty, even if there are no numbers you can add up to get that.

That's some righteous science, right there. How hot is the climate getting? Too hot to calculate the accuracy of the report. Oh noes - Thermageddon!



Really, will the last person who trusts the IPCC please turn out the lights? Or at least buy some Carbon Offsets, you hippies ...

Your guide to the MSM

Brought to you by Southern Belle:

What I find to be the most comical about both the [NBA All-Star Tim] Hardaway situation and the [Dixie Chicks' Natalie] Maines situation is the way that the two have been dealt with in the media. In 2003, Maines was portrayed as a poor victim of big business and a poor victim of censorship. Hardaway, on the other hand, is different. I am not hearing a peep about his right to free speech. In fact, other than hearing about what happened on the news, all I hear are crickets chirping about the subject (aside from talk radio, of course).

Where is the outrage in the media over the subject? Where are the Hollywood pundits on this issue? Why the silence? I’ll tell you why. It was the subject matter. Maines was criticizing the President, whom Hollywood and the media despise (it’s a bit of sour grapes over their golden boy, Al Gore, losing in 2000). Hardaway; however, spoke out against homosexuals, who are the Democrats’ newest pet project.

Yup. Her post reminded me of one I did on the Dixie Chicks, quite a while back:

I can only imagine the panic at the record label as the group imploded, and the goose that laid golden eggs laid, well, a goose egg. The record execs knew that in 1998, the Dixie Chicks sold more CDs that all other country artists combined.

I was one of the folks that got heartily sick of them. First, there was the sucking up to a foreign audience during a time of crisis. But whatever, that would have blown over. But Natalie Maines simply couldn't let it go, for example in the 2003 Der Spiegel interview ("We don't feel a part of the country scene any longer ...").

I feel for the record execs, who must have bled trying to do damage control. They understood what the Chicks seemed not to: there is a song played every day of the year on every Country radio station in the land: The Star Spangled Banner.

Typical wordy Borepatch post; Jennifer says it shorter (and better):

Shut your pie hole and dance, monkey!

But Southern Belle is right - the MSM will stick up for those in the "Angels" category, and will try to tar and feather those in the "Devil" category. Qui bono? That's all you need to know to sort out the bias.