Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Why is Britain headed for a hard BREXIT?

We can't tell for sure, of course - as Yogi Berra said prediction is hard, especially about the future.  But it looks like it will be hard BREXIT, and possibly because that's what the French want:

Is Macron's Threat Believable?

  • Yes! France picks up seats in the European parliament, Germany doesn't.
  • France and Germany are at odds on the way forward in the EU. The UK sees things more like Germany. It is in the French best interest to have the UK out of the EU.
  • France wants a European Army. The UK doesn't want the cost.
  • Neither France nor Germany wants UK representatives like Nigel Farage disrupting things. Theresa has no control over UK representatives in the European parliament.
My base assumption is that France now wants the UK out of the EU, it just does not want the blame. Yet, things have no gotten so ridiculous, France may be willing to take the blame.
Interesting analysis, and the first time I've seen any discussion of the motivations of the EU countries.

4 comments:

  1. DifferApril 2, 2019 at 5:30 PM

    At Mum's in UK and just watched the PM make her cooperation with Labour speech. She concedes a hard Brexit would be best for UK long term, but argued for getting the best deal possible. She agrees that the EU have accepted that UK is leaving and it is not negotiable, only the terms of Brexit and UKs future relationship with EU. It was a pretty good speech, but she'll likely be ousted as party leader (&hence as PM). She is asking for an undefined extension to negotiate thw deald but due EU elections, it will need to be effective by May 22 at latest.

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  2. diogeneseApril 3, 2019 at 7:20 PM

    the brexit legislation / legal legislation stated the UK would leave the EU at the end of march that date has passed therefore the UK is out of the EU with no agreement , done over fini

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  3. DifferApril 4, 2019 at 6:36 AM

    Now UK parliament have legislated that UK extend delay if Mrs May and Mr Corbyn cannot agree a basis for a deal to offer the EU next week, assuming EU agrees to it. UK chief of police says he has 10k officers ready to mobilize in the event of civil unrest.....and politicians are calling for public figures to "refrain from rhetoric that might inflame tension in this already febrile state." Frankly I don't see the tension. Lots of people irritated with govt for its inability to come to an agreement within itself let alone offer to EU. Still about a 50/50 split nationally with retainers concentrated in cities. Most Brits will simply grumble (no grinnig) and bear it whatever happens. Civil unrest? Unlikely.

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  4. KenApril 5, 2019 at 9:11 AM

    'UK chief of police says he has 10k officers ready to mobilize in the event of civil unrest.....and politicians are calling for public figures to "refrain from rhetoric that might inflame tension in this already febrile state."'

    Maybe they've got rent-a-mobs staged and ready.

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