tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post419525498695940516..comments2024-03-28T16:31:54.494-04:00Comments on Borepatch: Corona virus and the illusion of scienceBorepatchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-11161460663152938632020-03-18T13:28:37.315-04:002020-03-18T13:28:37.315-04:00What they have done is explain why they're tak...What they have done is explain <i>why</i> they're taking the measures they're taking.<br /><br />What they haven't done, is to show causation rather than correlation, I.e., whether any damn thing they do will work. Due to the CDC boning the testing kits, there has been virtually no testing anywhere until a few days ago, which is why I suspect the cases in the wild (as of this posting date) are probably an order of magnitude larger - or more - than the number of confirmed cases.<br /><br />That would be 60,000 cases, or 600,000 cases, rather than 6000.<br />The higher it is, the less effective even the most draconian measures will be, because the horse left the barn long ago, and no lock will fix that.<br /><br />IOW, a sign saying "Please don't let your elephants climb the trees" is not sufficient explanation for the lifelong dearth of elephants in the trees in NFYC's Central Park, nor does pointing to such a sign prove that it will work.<br /><br />Because, for one reason, elephants will do pretty much whatever they want to do, and for another, they can't read signs either.<br /><br />The correlation kicks in when you note that they also can't climb trees, and therefore the signage is totally superfluous.Aesophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834464741531503378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-41215567677487697692020-03-16T08:41:41.493-04:002020-03-16T08:41:41.493-04:00We need to be concerned. We need to be prepped. We...We need to be concerned. We need to be prepped. We now know many things that we didn’t before, but long suspected.<br /><br />- the people in charge are incompetent and can’t do their jobs<br /><br />- the media cannot be trusted<br /><br />- all the crazies and morons are going to be off their leashes if they aren’t already<br /><br />- we are on our own<br /><br />This is all good news for us, actually. Most of us are smart enough to look after Not only ourselves, but our communities as well. We can also defend them. The people at most risk are our sick and elderly. After them come our marginal people. The welfare slobs, the single mothers, and the parasite class. In other words, shitlibs and their enablers. <br /><br />The way forward now is to form small groups, be concerned but not frightful, and see how things shake out. For now, gather up and pool your resources with the proper people, exclude the proper people... and divide the labour and responsibility as much as you can. Cripes, in the 1600’s they had plagues every year. Stay loose and frosty and you’ll almost certainly be alright.Glen Filthiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03256741311142364722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-31897048202236677722020-03-15T23:39:57.317-04:002020-03-15T23:39:57.317-04:00Agree with your "don't touch" commen...Agree with your "don't touch" comment.<br />Biden and Bernie both touched during their "debate".Greybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11919862790973521778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-9173570902145534382020-03-15T18:19:40.270-04:002020-03-15T18:19:40.270-04:00Drill instructors make an art form out of teaching...Drill instructors make an art form out of teaching not to touch your face. Or move. Or scratch. Or any other normal human thing you grubby little Privates might be thinking of doing.ASM826https://www.blogger.com/profile/04017388670319590449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-36201848032854370612020-03-15T18:04:56.341-04:002020-03-15T18:04:56.341-04:00Roy, I carry tissues with me and when I need to to...Roy, I carry tissues with me and when I need to touch my face I use them. Not sure how much more effective it is, but probably a lot better than with my grubby hands. And I'm washing my hands ALL the time.<br /><br />Eck!, that was really my point - we know a very limited set of data with some reasonable precision, and then rapidly descend into Drake Equation level of uncertainty. And so the output of any model we hear about for Corona Virus Lethality is speculative at best.<br /><br />Ed, I'd love this to be a flash in the pan, especially as The Queen Of The World and I are over 60. We'll know better in a month; two weeks if we're lucky.Borepatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-17394562254999667222020-03-15T17:53:33.736-04:002020-03-15T17:53:33.736-04:00I'm reading posts from people purporting to be...I'm reading posts from people purporting to be immunologists (and I assume they are) who are claiming that they have seen the virus and it is not any different from what we've seen before.<br />I smell a rat.<br />Ed Bonderenkahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03724552853113809036noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-31021643301537540382020-03-15T15:26:20.230-04:002020-03-15T15:26:20.230-04:00Borepatch,
One thing with the Drake Equation, and...Borepatch,<br /><br />One thing with the Drake Equation, and a different way to appreciate it is we know that N is 1 at a bare minimum, We exist. However how much more than one is speculative, but even if its some really large number of decimal places to the right as in 1.mumble its significant. <br />Like most theories we have to test it and to do that we have to get out there or they visit.<br /><br />All the avoidance and such does not mean I may not get CV19. It <br />may mean I likely get it later or when we know more how it behaves <br />or better how to treat it. So in the sense its likely time is a <br />value of its own. If time is a large enough number maybe <br />effective treatment or vaccine is the critical factor (and hope!).<br /><br />The biggest unknown is how lethal as in data, and under what conditions is it so. Right now with small sample sizes (in human terms) the sample sizes are only getting to the level of "somethings happening" and data is sparse.<br /><br /><br />Add one thing if your touching your face wash it often!<br />At best it can help if not low hazard.<br /><br />A suggestion I'd heard, when you get home from work or whatever,<br />soon (or before if possible) strip and put clothes in the washing machine to wash go direct to shower. Fresh clothes. Its in the can't hurt but only if you have washing supplies and can do that.<br /><br /><br />Eck!<br /><br /><br />Eck!https://www.blogger.com/profile/13890237094647111653noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-4139084032551168482020-03-15T14:37:51.148-04:002020-03-15T14:37:51.148-04:00"...and stop touching your face."
Go ah..."...and stop touching your face."<br /><br />Go ahead. Just try to not touch your face. It's almost impossible for any normal human. If your eye or nose itches a little, you rub it. It's almost a semi-autonomous motion, like breathing. You do it without thinking about it. One of the most humorous YouTube video's I have seen lately was a bunch of media personalities and high-level officials, all telling us on air to "stop touching your face", who immediately... Touched their face.Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10108430731483801350noreply@blogger.com