tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post3964527421809881347..comments2024-03-28T16:31:54.494-04:00Comments on Borepatch: I don't trust the polls for exactly the same reason I don't trust the climate databasesBorepatchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-2847249104996906252012-11-07T01:03:55.334-05:002012-11-07T01:03:55.334-05:00Given the results, would you like to concede that ...Given the results, would you like to concede that the pollsters were right?Mark Smithhttp://oilquench.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-11297447193660042122012-11-06T14:09:01.195-05:002012-11-06T14:09:01.195-05:00I always hang up, saying "I don't do poll...I always hang up, saying "I don't do polls. Thank you. Good-bye." if there's a real person calling.<br /><br />Polling results announced during a campaign are all suspect because they rely on the honesty of the responses, which is undeterminable.<br /><br />Polls aren't, on the other hand, totally unrelated to reality because some people do respond honestly. But there's no way to set limits on the inherent errors, so all polling is rubbish. Or to be more precise, the fundamental errors mean you can't tell the more accurate polls from the less accurate ones.<br /><br />So why waste your time with any of them?<br /><br />And this election looks to be especially unreliable because of what's called the Bradley Effect, which I suspect will be big this year. You can google the term, but it's where people tell pollsters one thing and vote differently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-87646293246767166912012-11-05T12:41:35.077-05:002012-11-05T12:41:35.077-05:00Can not wait for this to be over.Can not wait for this to be over.agirlandhergunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08369419666474343639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-67273033211996288432012-11-05T12:35:15.866-05:002012-11-05T12:35:15.866-05:00Nice unification of the statistics of AGW and poli...Nice unification of the statistics of AGW and political polls. <br /><br />The polls I've looked into in depth all oversample Democrats by a lot - up to +10 (IIRC). It's all based on the '08 turnout - but that turnout was historical. It defies sense to think that something that has happened once in recorded history is going to happen exactly the same way immediately - especially when you consider how badly the polls have done at capturing races like, well, most of 2010, Ted Cruz in Texas this year, and so on. <br /><br /><br />SiGraybeard@work <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-41601801194803873992012-11-05T11:49:02.404-05:002012-11-05T11:49:02.404-05:00Joe.Attaboy--
I can answer your question. You are...Joe.Attaboy--<br /><br />I can answer your question. You are a registered Republican, and are off the call lists. Registered Democrats are as well. They already know to factor your vote into their equation; it's the "undecided" voters who get badgered by calls.<br /><br />The easiest way to get out of getting poll calls is to register toward a particular party. Too bad that doesn't stop the infomercial robocalls.<br /><br />BP--thanks for the nod. Appreciate it, buddy.The Czar of Muscovyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15002679456122392387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-56353446645313775852012-11-05T11:15:30.702-05:002012-11-05T11:15:30.702-05:00I would just like to be polled. Just once. My wife...I would just like to be polled. Just once. My wife and I have lived in the same Florida county for 27 years. We've been registered to vote in that county...for 27 years. We've never been called, visited, emailed by, or seen anyone who wanted us to answer a genuine voter poll.<br /><br />I'm beginning to think it has to do with my county (Clay, in Florida). Of 133,000 registered voters in the county, about ~73,000 are Republican, ~32,000 are Democrat and the other ~28,000 are "Others" (most of which are "no party affiliation". <br /><br />Perhaps the polling organizations just don't see the point in contacting anyone on Clay County because of the lopsided Republican numbers. <br /><br />As of this morning (Monday 11/5), about 31% of the county's voters have voted early. My wife and I were there Friday afternoon and waited about 40 minutes to get in. joe.attaboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-64076723929776455722012-11-05T10:44:02.325-05:002012-11-05T10:44:02.325-05:00Getting back to the raw data, I usually tell polls...Getting back to the raw data, I usually tell pollsters they will know my answers on election day, and then I hang up the phone. Wonder how many other folks do that?Mrs. S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/05303378310653171627noreply@blogger.com