tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post1577605660972445201..comments2024-03-28T09:46:22.919-04:00Comments on Borepatch: Spectacular failureBorepatchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-58035610857062460392011-05-23T15:38:58.799-04:002011-05-23T15:38:58.799-04:00Are you sure you're using that 93% right? I th...Are you sure you're using that 93% right? I think that's the True Positive rate, so 7% is the False Negative rate. I don't think the False Positive rate is reported in the linked article, but I might have missed it. Either way, it's not necessarily dependent on the True Positive rate.<br /><br />Also, your discussion of cataloging pattern is misleading - in the AI field, human input of patterns to look for has long given way to statistics based machine learning - give something like a maximum-entropy model examples of various categories, pulling out various features of each item, and let the model determine the category.<br /><br />Lastly, I think you're underestimating the utility of such Weak AI tools in your criticism of the possibility of Strong AI. Machine learning, automated categorization, etc. are certainly not perfect, but that doesn't mean they can't make it easier to deal with piles of data.raptros-v76https://www.blogger.com/profile/09754847468450212182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-41756980015042244842011-05-22T19:52:40.938-04:002011-05-22T19:52:40.938-04:0093% sounds too high for identifying porn on an int...93% sounds too high for identifying porn on an internet filtering tool.<br />I should know it was my job to investigate those web sites when an individual came to our attention. The easiest way to fool the filter was by going to sites with say a Russian or Hungarian domain name.<br />All I can say is the Russians have the nastiest porn on the planet and at least the Hungarians choose attractive actors.<br />It was a tough job but someone had to do it and it's remarkable the weird fetishes people have.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-19889550382893562592011-05-22T17:35:30.356-04:002011-05-22T17:35:30.356-04:00On the other hand - we have rudimentary keyword vo...On the other hand - we have rudimentary keyword voice recognition (with sentence parsing, even) that can run on obsolete handheld computers (Since WinMo 2002 or so - MS's voice recognition is still rather better than current Androids). On PCs it's better yet, with at least one full-time pro author I know (David Weber) "writing" entire novels via voice dictation to a computer.<br /><br />That was long considered a AI-Hard problem<br /><br />WV: rhectur - someone who launches rhetoric?Ian Argenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03704336044732061128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-35051626217949278762011-05-22T15:26:02.973-04:002011-05-22T15:26:02.973-04:00Aretae, I think that I see it as a problem of insu...Aretae, I think that I see it as a problem of insufficient algorithms. So throwing hardware at it won't fundamentally change anything, just like throwing hardware at brute force encryption key cracking.<br /><br />AI is NP-hard, and Moore's Law doesn't solve NP-hard. Yeah, I know that does violence to the terminology, but in the grand scheme of things it's true.<br /><br />Terry, exactly.Borepatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05029434172945099693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-49031265394393613612011-05-22T13:43:31.923-04:002011-05-22T13:43:31.923-04:00I'm far from a computer expert and I don't...I'm far from a computer expert and I don't really understand how programming works but I do believe I can tell you why AI will probably never come to pass. <br /><br />The problem is in the second word, intelligence. <br /><br />We don't really know what that means, we don't really know how it works in "simpler" species. <br /><br />One of the characteristics of intelligence seems to be judgement. Except in the most narrow of definitions, we are not good at all at defining it.<br /><br />With all that in mind, how can we expect to create a program that has intelligence?<br /><br />TerryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-52933723716371398952011-05-22T13:27:35.392-04:002011-05-22T13:27:35.392-04:00The fundamental failure of AI is 2 fold:
1. We hav...The fundamental failure of AI is 2 fold:<br />1. We have no idea exactly how the human brain works. Our theories get torn up and replaced every 15 years. <br />2. The belief that can code something that beyond what a human can comprehend. We simply can't write complex code a on scale that surpasses a human's understanding.<br /><br />There has been some amazing progress with heuristic based systems with large database but it still falls short and is underused.<br /><br />There's a book out there call Gut Feelings ( http://www.amazon.com/Gut-Feelings-Intelligence-Gerd-Gigerenzer/dp/0143113763/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1306085063&sr=8-1 ) that makes a good argument that humans are driven by heuristic systems as well but I don't think it's the mainstream view and I don't think we're anywhere close to having a complete understanding of the brain.Grimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08216378792974323131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-38046971864965350612011-05-22T13:19:35.830-04:002011-05-22T13:19:35.830-04:00I remember reading in 1971 or '72 that control...I remember reading in 1971 or '72 that controlled fusion reactors were "20 years away". I read that they were "20 years away" not too long ago, too. Likewise, a friend tried to convince me we'd have an artificial intelligence at the level of a bee "in ten years" - that conversation was in 1997. Unless I slept through that, nope.<br /><br />In the 1980s a Physics professor told me that the pattern recognition ability of the stupidest puppy would choke the most most advanced machines of the day. Visual recognition systems have some use industrially, but the best visual inspection systems are still animals. In the 1960s, one of the big pharmaceutical companies trained <b>pigeons</b> to visually inspect gelatin capsules to detect defective or double-stacked half. It was an outstanding success. The pigeons were better than human inspectors (I guess it was more challenging to the birds), but the company didn't go past the pilot program phase with it because of fear of the lawyers (your previous post) or bad PR. <br /><br />Will there by thinking machines in the future? I have no doubt, but I think the area to research is not bigger computers but what thinking <i>is</i>. We don't know enough to know what we don't know. <br /><br />Borepatch, you and I both have cats; it's obvious they think, that they plan, and that they understand "self". Does "Watson"? Personally, I don't think a "singularity" in the usual sense is going to happen. We might get more and more sophisticated implants or replacements for damaged organs, but that Vernor Vinge singularity thing just doesn't sound plausible to me. Like it or not, intelligence is stuck in meatspace for the foreseeable future.SiGraybeardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00280583031339062059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-19582650165967680232011-05-22T12:56:43.063-04:002011-05-22T12:56:43.063-04:00I still think my followup argument is solid.
We&#...I still think my followup argument is solid.<br /><br />We've been trying to get AI with the computing power of a bacteria's brain (He doesn't have one). While the fact that we've had failure for 30+ years, and that you and I have both been watching it does not portend failure in the future, when we try to write AI, but have a desktop system with the computing power of a Mouse's brain, a Human's brain, or a whole town's collective brains. <br /><br />Evolution couldn't give us intelligence as we understand it with less than human sized brains...is it really surprising that we need more than 1 BILLIONTH of said processing to get anything functional?Aretaehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15850678936908894274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322916946732811685.post-13953432766688412672011-05-22T12:40:32.057-04:002011-05-22T12:40:32.057-04:00I still think the best thing that's ever come ...I still think the best thing that's ever come out of long term technology predictions are the yearly articles in Popular Science and such. Hi-larious!<br /><br />And I feel obligated to now say: "Where's my flying car, dammit?"bluesunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11995973825892791271noreply@blogger.com