We are swimming in reports of how badly the Republicans are going to do in next year's election (no links because I'm lazy but these are a dime a dozen if you look). I disagree.
In general, mid-term elections favor the party out of power. This is true so often that it is almost considered a law of nature, particularly during a President's second term. What you don't ever see is anyone ask why do voters reject the party in power in the mid-terms? There's quite a simple answer.
Fatigue.
The voters have had some time to get used to the Administration and starts to tire of the typical amount of scandal, incompetence, and general dum-assery that any administration accumulates.
That's not at all what we see today. The main focus of the Trump 47 administration has been border security, deporting criminal illegal aliens, economic growth, and lower inflation. There are remarkable results for all of these, despite the legacy media's frantic efforts to hide them.
Each of these are 80% issues - i.e. the issues all get 80% support in polls.
I would go so far as to say that the voter fatigue is on the other foot. It's the Democrats who spent the last four years stumbling through a morass of dumb-assery. And who are all on the 20% end of the issues that voters care about.
Voters have short memories but remember that Trump has only been back in office for 11 months and has remarkable achievements - achievements that for the previous four years the legacy media said were impossible to achieve.
The polls for the Democrats are a dumpster fire. There's a reason for this. Action, reaction.
What is particularly ironic is that now it's basically proved that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. If the Democrats in Fulton County hadn't done this, Trump 46 would have bumbled through a second term with his appointees working with the Deep State to undercut him - just like his 45 term. Instead, they gave him four years to plan this remarkable turnaround.
Sure, he still grates on a lot of people, but at the end of the day most voters will go with what's working for them. They got plenty of pretty promises from Biden, promises that never panned out.
Donald Trump has an ability to reverse the laws of gravity, and mid-term voter fatigue will be just another example of this.
You must be living in a different American than I, because I've not seen these benefits.
ReplyDeleteAntibubba,
ReplyDeleteYou must live in a cave. Prices are definitely down, gas and groceries. Next, in my field (commercial construction), we are buried in work. Hiring is up, hard to find experienced workers is our biggest issue.
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ReplyDeleteI don’t think so JPD but more importantly, neither do consumers.
ReplyDeleteMost everything rose substantially during COVID and voters longed for those pre-COVID days. Trump promised he could get them back. He couldn’t.
True, gas prices are down but most everything else is not.
I’d say most voters approve strongly on the boarder issue. But I don’t think they are see actual criminals being rounded up.
But here’s where I think things will get ugly for Republicans. It’s going to be hard to even stabilize grocery prices, much less lower them, with Trump’s top priorities- tariffs and immigration. And then there’s the reality that the big bill isn’t all that beautiful at all for average families.
Democrats have an opportunity to hit hard on that as being self inflicted and that Republican lawmakers are allowing it to happen.
I smell blood coming November.
@Ronald J. Ward,
ReplyDeleteI think you're wrong. Specifically, I don't think that voters will blame the Republicans for what happened over the last four years.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think so.
Now if only the Republicans in Congress would actually do something positive with the power we loaned them.
ReplyDeleteThe loudest anti-Republican sentiments come from the MSM, which is (are) almost wholly anti-Republican and anti-Trump. It is a truism: what people hear the most is what they begin to believe. Hence, most of the nasty and terrible reports about Republicans and Trump have been amplified by media pundits.
ReplyDeleteI have had zero faith in any public opinion polls for at least a decade - probably even longer than that. We know that polls can be "pushed" by the way questions are phrased and the order in which they are asked. Polling organizations reveal their partisan bias when the questions are analyzed, and then when the answers are reviewed.
I have personally seen gas prices drop, the price of eggs drop, and prices for other goods either drop or maintain the same price level from 2023 onward. On the other hand, I have not seen huge increases in ordinary goods - clothing, food, electronics - rise significantly due to the media-claimed effect of tariffs.
But then, I live in Florida where the governor and the state legislature have not worked toward increasing taxes on everything. That is a blue-state phenomenon.
My fervent wish is that the MSM stops using CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, CT, and other blue states as the litmus test for economic activity and consumer prices. But then, that's where the media talking heads live, and it is they who set the talking points.
Borepatch, I too could be wrong but Democrats certainly have a lot of ammo with proper planning. But then, they’d do well planning a birthday party much less a national campaign.
ReplyDeleteBut here’s another angle I find quite telling, or at least, something to think about. Trump dominated KY by around 30 points in 2024. But also on that ballot was a vote to amend the state constitution to allow school vouchers. It was strongly pushed by Republicans and had considerable out of state funding. Yards that had Trump signs also had signs to vote yes as Harris yards had signs to vote no. It was a highly partisan issue in a highly partisan deep red state.
Yet, voters overwhelmingly rejected school vouchers- in every one of the 120 counties and by big numbers. What this tells me is that Trump country moms and dads are okay with monetarily donning the blue jersey from behind the curtain when it comes to protecting their cubs.
And I think I’m seeing the same in recent special elections.
Regardless of our views of long term economic results of Trump’s policies, it’s hard to ignore the short term economic pain they produce. Prices are most certainly going to rise in 2026 and they can be directly attributed to tariffs and how immigration removal and tactics affect communities and supply shortages.
Trump won’t be on a ballot but other options are. But again, I too could be wrong.