Internet Security, music, and Dad Jokes. And pets - it's a blog, after all.
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
22/24 and 45/47
Only two Presidents have been elected to non-consecutive terms. The first was Grover Cleveland who served as 22nd (in 1884) and 24th (in 1892) Presidential terms (his two terms interrupted by Benjamin Harrison in 1888 even though Cleveland won the popular vote). Long time readers will know that Cleveland is very much a Friend of the Blog, being listed as one of the top US Presidents since forever.
The second, of course, is Donald Trump - Presidential terms 45 and (now) 47. We will see how history rates his two terms; 45 was pretty successful but with a lot of important stuff left undone. His great Presidential flaw was the people he appointed do implement his policies where they often submarined him.
We will see how much he learned from that. Glen Reynolds posts some interesting ideas (you should absolutely read the whole thing; it's certain that Trump's people have):
Last time around, Trump squandered his momentum. He passed the tax bill that the establishment GOP wanted, after which they didn’t need anything from him and turned to obstructing him. Here’ssomethingI wrote in 2017:
Like airplanes on a runway. Trump’s approach this time around should be what he should have done last time: Shock and awe. Shut down departments, fire bureaucrats, exercise emergency powers, all so fast that the establishment’s responses are saturated. Javier Millei’s whirlwind assault in Argentina should be the model, sometimes in specifics but also in general approach. Bureaucrats move slowly; Trump should move fast.
Elon Musk says he can cut $2 trillion easily; do it. Also, set bureaucrats competing with each other for what funds remain. Divide and conquer.
The interesting question here is how you scale this throughout all the
Federal Agencies. I think the answer is to use business-as-usual:
different offices play office politics against each other to get budget
and headcount. That's how the game is played. So set up an incentive
structure for Office A to rat our Office B's inefficiencies and
duplications to save their own skins. I expect that this would pay big
dividends.
So we shall see what we shall see. The results from last night were not the landslide I was sort of expecting (although it was a solid win). I expect there was some cheating but nothing like what we saw in 2020 - because as I've been saying, party apparatchiks saw the same Preference Cascade forming and a lot fewer were willing to risk jail to cheat for a loser.
But like Donald Trump, the USA dodged a bullet last night.
Well congrats you guys. I am however, dubious about pitting the Swamp against itself. They have deeply entrenched alliances, creatures they own through bribes and blackmail, and more to replace the dead wood that gets taken out. The biggest swamp critters are flat out criminals and psychopaths. More than a few are sexual perverts and degenerates. Hate to say it - but the last guy to face entrenched corruption and incompetence like this was You Know Who during the Weimer Republic of Germany. I can't prove it but I strongly suspect the same people were involved too.
Can rot like that be dealt with, peacefully and lawfully? I have my doubts. For America to be great again a LOT of people will need to disappear or go away.
@GF Turning Elon loose to cut $2T will have the salutary effect of getting the elements of the Deep State to fight each other for survival. Bucket of crabs effect.
Or the lone crazy will blow him or Trump away. Targeted assassinations are part and parcel of the communist playbook. When Old Nasty made his political rivals disappear - I strongly suspect that it was in retribution for those tactics. That little detail is either left out of historical accounts, or vociferously ridiculed by the Usual Suspect who “doth protest too much”.
We’ve seen dirty pool played by both sides in labour disputes.
Not saying you guys are wrong; I could be full a beans. I hope I am wrong, for the record.
Let's remember that Donald Trump is not the President. Joe Biden, seemingly forgotten, is the President for another 74 days. What damages he and his handlers may do remains to be seen.
We get a 4 year reprieve. Use it wisely. But remember, the left NEVER quits, never goes away, never surrenders. They never rest, therefore we can never rest.
The difficulty with cutting costs significantly is that over 2/3 of government spending is so called "mandatory", most of which is Social spending (Medicare, foot stamps, Section 8 housing, Disability, etc). Quite a bit of this is actually administered by the states. For example, one reason that California with 10% of the population has 1/3 of the welfare recipients is how they run their program. The entire executive branch is less than the military as far as spending is concerned. Do both need trimming? Yes! But the focus should be on efficiency not necessarily overall budgets. Often this is more an issue of regulations than staffing. We've got a number of laws that started as a good idea but have grown ridiculous over time. Another BIG issue is how courts expand and increase regulations. Environmental permitting (NEPA) is a great example. At least half the increased time and cost has come from court cases, far larger than the chunk that came from Executive Orders. Law changes in 2023 put time limits on the process, but without changing the contents of the process it's a shell game. I'm a federal employee who does extensive NEPA work ... The cost to do an EIS, for example, have gone from $20 million in 2018 to $140+ million today for the same project.
Trump has said he won't touch Medicare or Social Security. He may actually help Medicare by rolling back *Biden's attack on the Medicare Advantage plans. While technically not mandatory, morally they are as the recipients pay for them (with a generational disconnect). The others are not mandatory at all but have been designated as such by serial surrender on the part of the GOPe.
Trump also said he’d replace Obamacare. He has a concept of a plan. Before the 2018 midterms, he said the middle class tax cut would be coming out “in a couple of weeks.” He said that the Covid 19 outbreak would be over by April.
Can you really trust that he won’t touch Social Security and Medicare? Especially since cutting and revising those programs are in the Project 2025 document?
Well congrats you guys. I am however, dubious about pitting the Swamp against itself. They have deeply entrenched alliances, creatures they own through bribes and blackmail, and more to replace the dead wood that gets taken out. The biggest swamp critters are flat out criminals and psychopaths. More than a few are sexual perverts and degenerates. Hate to say it - but the last guy to face entrenched corruption and incompetence like this was You Know Who during the Weimer Republic of Germany. I can't prove it but I strongly suspect the same people were involved too.
ReplyDeleteCan rot like that be dealt with, peacefully and lawfully? I have my doubts. For America to be great again a LOT of people will need to disappear or go away.
@GF Turning Elon loose to cut $2T will have the salutary effect of getting the elements of the Deep State to fight each other for survival. Bucket of crabs effect.
ReplyDeleteOr the lone crazy will blow him or Trump away. Targeted assassinations are part and parcel of the communist playbook. When Old Nasty made his political rivals disappear - I strongly suspect that it was in retribution for those tactics. That little detail is either left out of historical accounts, or vociferously ridiculed by the Usual Suspect who “doth protest too much”.
DeleteWe’ve seen dirty pool played by both sides in labour disputes.
Not saying you guys are wrong; I could be full a beans. I hope I am wrong, for the record.
We have plenty of time to worry about shit 'n stuff.
ReplyDeleteEvil, threatened critters will fight when in fear.
Let's remember that Donald Trump is not the President. Joe Biden, seemingly forgotten, is the President for another 74 days. What damages he and his handlers may do remains to be seen.
ReplyDeleteWe get a 4 year reprieve. Use it wisely. But remember, the left NEVER quits, never goes away, never surrenders. They never rest, therefore we can never rest.
ReplyDelete@danielbarger, it is all action, reaction. Let's give a few years to react to Biden's actions. I expect we'll see something.
ReplyDeleteI suggest that heads on pikes around the Beltway would encourage some of the evil to change their lives. Especially if they were the correct heads!
ReplyDeleteRemember, you voted for the coming recession.
ReplyDeleteWe've been in a Recession at least two years. The networks will finally start reporting on it sometime in January.
DeleteThe difficulty with cutting costs significantly is that over 2/3 of government spending is so called "mandatory", most of which is Social spending (Medicare, foot stamps, Section 8 housing, Disability, etc). Quite a bit of this is actually administered by the states. For example, one reason that California with 10% of the population has 1/3 of the welfare recipients is how they run their program.
ReplyDeleteThe entire executive branch is less than the military as far as spending is concerned. Do both need trimming? Yes! But the focus should be on efficiency not necessarily overall budgets.
Often this is more an issue of regulations than staffing. We've got a number of laws that started as a good idea but have grown ridiculous over time. Another BIG issue is how courts expand and increase regulations. Environmental permitting (NEPA) is a great example. At least half the increased time and cost has come from court cases, far larger than the chunk that came from Executive Orders.
Law changes in 2023 put time limits on the process, but without changing the contents of the process it's a shell game.
I'm a federal employee who does extensive NEPA work ... The cost to do an EIS, for example, have gone from $20 million in 2018 to $140+ million today for the same project.
Trump has said he won't touch Medicare or Social Security. He may actually help Medicare by rolling back *Biden's attack on the Medicare Advantage plans. While technically not mandatory, morally they are as the recipients pay for them (with a generational disconnect). The others are not mandatory at all but have been designated as such by serial surrender on the part of the GOPe.
ReplyDeleteTrump also said he’d replace Obamacare. He has a concept of a plan.
DeleteBefore the 2018 midterms, he said the middle class tax cut would be coming out “in a couple of weeks.”
He said that the Covid 19 outbreak would be over by April.
Can you really trust that he won’t touch Social Security and Medicare? Especially since cutting and revising those programs are in the Project 2025 document?
I didn't think you'd be up to posting yet, Kamala.
ReplyDelete