Thursday, August 11, 2022

Finding Out

 Now that the U.S. is in some sort of escalating standoff with China, it seems like a good time to look back fondly to the country I grew up in. 

My grandfather sold Ford trucks, so we had a Ford. But all the major choices were made in America. As was the steel, glass, and rubber the car was made from. The only exception I remember were Volkswagens. Here's the parking lot at Disneyland in 1965.

The furnace, TV, the toaster, stove, refrigerator, washing machine, dryer, light bulbs, lamps, outlets, switches, faucets, silverware, dishes, and door locks were all made in America.

The towels, sheets, blankets, pillows, mattresses, rugs, chairs, sofas, cabinets, bureaus, and end tables were all made in America.

Shirts, t-shirts, underwear, socks, shoes, pants, belts, dresses, hose, coats, sweaters, and umbrellas were all made in America. 

Nike running shoes were made in America. I had a pair of the original waffle trainers in the late 1970s and they had this label.

The telephone wasn't much, it weighed as much as a bowling ball, was tied to a wire, and didn't even display who was calling, but it was made in America, along with the wires, switching equipment, and equipment racks that made it all work.

The tools hanging in the garage were all made in America, ours were mostly Craftsman. 

Tractors, graders, backhoes, cranes, big trucks. Made in America by companies many of us can still name.

When I was twelve years old and Americans landed on the moon, everything I owned that wasn't made in America could have disappeared and I think the only thing I would have missed was my Raleigh bicycle.

Now, in 2022, we are approaching the opposite situation. Except for the old furniture I have, everything I own is imported. It's isn't the electronics, but let's start there. 

No TVs, computers, cell phones, stereo equipment, or cameras are made in America.

Want a t-shirts, some boxers, socks, a pair of jeans, a towel, or some sheets? There's U.S. made to found, but it's boutique and priced to match, there's no mainline retailers selling U.S. made.

Bicycles. Schwinn frames didn't say made in America, the logo just said Chicago. Schwinn is still a name, but it's a low end import bike from China. Giant, Trek, Specialized, and the high end bike store bikes are all imported and all the components from tires to handlebars are as well. 


Craftsman's gone. The name's was sold along with Kenmore in the giant train wreck that Sears became, but it's all made in China.

Starting in the 1980s, the U.S has bled off it's manufacturing. Steel, glass, textiles, consumer goods are gone. It took 40 years to sell it all, move it offshore, and shut down the plants here. How long would it take to bring it back? If you started, who would do the work? Who knows how? There are YouTube channels dedicated to exploring abandoned factories, they illustrate the impossibility of reopening, it would have to be built new from scratch.

We made this bed and we climbed in it, to a large extent with China, although I recognize that imports do come from other countries as well. When Covid hit, we all saw what a "just in time" global supply chain looked like under stress. Which brings me back to the opening of this post. 

If we get knotted up in a conflict with China, they don't have to go to military force, they can just restrict their exports to the U.S. It would hurt them some, and they might feel some economic consequences, but we would be hamstrung. Think what every Wal-Mart in the country would look like if everything made in China disappeared. We can't afford to do it.

Which means that very likely we won't. I can't account for some moronic behavior like we've seen recently, but I expect we'll huff and puff and then claim that it all worked out for the best. China knows it. We know it. Taiwan knows it, too. They are on their own when it comes down to it, and they would do well to make the best deal they can. We aren't going to war on their behalf.

3 comments:

  1. Being the same age group as you the only item in our house in the 60's made overseas was a transistor radio made in Japan. By the 1980's Japan had the lead in the world market in automobiles and electronics. They could buy timber in Canada, mill it at sea and sell it back in Canada cheaper than Canadians could do to automation. Japan improves the designs of other countries much like the Israelis do. J

    The one downside for the PRC is they don't seem to be inventive, the just steal or copy other peoples work in a cheap fashion. If you build your plant or license your product in China, you just gave the ChiCom's your technology. All their military products are knock off of Soviet or Russian hardware, probably not made to even that standard. They have stolen or were given US military tech thanks to Bill Clinton, may he rot in hell. China spends about 1.7% GDP on defense that we know of.

    The other downside for China's expansion is the do not have a tested military. The army has not fought anything but border skirmishes since 1980's with Vietnam and their navy has zero experience. They probably don't care about casualties but if the Ukraine / Russian conflict is looked at they don't have a logistics train in place to sustain an across water invasion.

    I think you are correct about the US and PRC views, but until the Taiwanese government is intimidated I don't think the PRC will risk losing an armed conflict.

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  2. China is not in a position to menace the USA at all. If your market were to fall, they’d likely teeter and fall as well.

    Consider:
    15 out of 20 of the world’s dirtiest cities are in China

    85% of the water that comes out of the tap is unpottable

    Because Chinese families value male children over females, female infanticide has created a generation where there will not be enough women to go around.

    Finally, their economy is based on the same house of cards ours is.

    We have been here before. Back in the 80s the Japs were going to own us. Then it was the Koreans and pacific rim countries. Now it’s China.

    The American giant sleeps… but he is far from dead.

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  3. @Gerry-

    The Chinese may just knock-off Russian mil hardware, but one thing they have over the Russians in spades is logistics capabilities. The Ukraine war has exposed a huge weakness in the Russian military in that regard (they don't even know how to palletize cargo- they just pile stuff in the trucks).

    The Chinese will at least know how to get ammo to the guns in quantity (even if their quality means that 50% of the rounds are duds).

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